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A midsummer prediction: Sixers’ road to NBA Finals will be tougher than many people assume | David Murphy

The Nets will be better because they have Kyrie Irving. The Celtics could be better because they do not. The Raptors might not be a huge concern, but the Sixers aren't as far out in front as many assume.

From left, James Ennis, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, and Josh Richardson walk off after posing for phots with their jerseys after an introductory press conference introducing both new and resigned players at the Philadelphia 76ers Training Complex in Camden, NJ on Friday, July 12, 2019.
From left, James Ennis, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, and Josh Richardson walk off after posing for phots with their jerseys after an introductory press conference introducing both new and resigned players at the Philadelphia 76ers Training Complex in Camden, NJ on Friday, July 12, 2019.Read moreHEATHER KHALIFA / Staff Photographer

It has long been the NBA’s junior circuit, its perpetual bridesmaid, its John Turturro -- always there, but rarely in a starring role. It’s the Eastern Conference, and, you may have heard, it is going to be a cakewalk. Credit the other seven men who shared a stage with James Ennis last Friday afternoon. For the most part, they did not break character when the question that everybody knew was coming finally arrived. Elton Brand’s lips may have turned slightly upward into a rueful grin. But the rest of the gang did an admirable job maintaining their poker faces.

In a two-week stretch that saw the Sixers trade away Jimmy Butler, sign Al Horford, and bid adieu to JJ Redick, it was Ennis who owned one of the bigger headlines when he told The Inquirer in an interview that, in his estimation, the Sixers would “walk to the Finals” this season. Several days later, at a news conference that featured six players and two executives, the journeyman rotation player softened his assessment a bit.

“I’m confident in this group and I believe in this group, and I believe in Coach Brown and Elton and all of our guys want to win,” Ennis said. “As a player, you want to win all the time. It’s gonna be tough; it’s the NBA, but I believe.”

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One of the nice things about the NBA is that stuff like this rarely stays on the shelf for long. Everyone seems to understand that basketball is not the sort of sport in which motivational sound bites and hater-ific newspaper clippings provide much of an edge in between the end lines. The rah-rah stuff might make for a compelling narrative. But, in the end, talent tends to prevail.

While Ennis’ comments might be irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, they do provide us with a handy entry point to a question that is worth considering now that the bulk of the offseason dust has settled. What will the Eastern Conference look like this season? And is the road to the Finals really less treacherous than it was last season?

I’m not sure that the answer is as obvious as conventional wisdom holds. While the Sixers will certainly benefit from not having to go through Kawhi Leonard, I think we might be underestimating the potential threat of two of the three other teams who should enter the season as the favorites to secure one of the conference’s top four seeds.

Take the Celtics, for starters. It was only two years ago that Boston walloped the Sixers in the Eastern Conference semis without Kyrie Irving. As talented as Irving is, the Celtics are replacing him with a guard whom the Sixers have struggled mightily to defend in Kemba Walker. In Jayson Tatum, they have a third-year wing who will only continue to grow on both ends of the court. In Gordon Hayward, they have a player who averaged nearly 22 points per game and shot 40 percent from three-point range in 2016-17 and who will have an entire offseason to focus on his game rather than his comeback from a devastating leg injury. They have one of the best coaches in the game, and plenty of flexibility to make the sort of in-season trade that can alter the conference’s balance of power. Is Boston well behind the Bucks and the Sixers in terms of talent? Sure. But the schadenfreude that has been enjoyed at their expense seems, at best, premature.

Likewise, I think we might be forgetting just how close the Nets came to giving the Sixers serious trouble in the opening round of this year’s playoffs. And good luck projecting how these two teams will match up on the court now that Irving is in the fold. With Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie alongside him, the Nets will have a chance to test just how well a Sixers lineup that lacks a prototypical NBA guard can stack up against a lineup that features three of them. In DeAndre Jordan, Brooklyn now has a big body that it can stick on Joel Embiid in the paint, and in Taurean Prince and Jarrett Allen, and the Nets have two other athletic bodies that they can use to attempt to counter however the Sixers attempt to deploy Al Horford.

Swap out DeAngelo Russell for Irving in this year’s playoffs, and what happens?

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It’s true that there remains a sizable gap between the top and the bottom of the potential playoff field. The Pacers and Heat are two big wild cards, with Indiana returning just one healthy starter and Miami betting big on Jimmy Butler and his merry band of complementary parts. The Hornets, Wizards, Cavs, and Knicks will all be fortunate to reach 25 wins. The Hawks and Bulls will both be improved, but the ceiling for both is the annual eight seed free-for-all.

The Sixers should not struggle to reach 50 wins and secure home-court advantage in the first round. But it is the second round where things start to matter. And while there might not be a team that looks as formidable as one that features Leonard, here’s one bold summer prediction: Neither the Nets nor the Celtics will finish the regular season as far behind the Bucks and the Sixers as everybody -- James Ennis among them -- seems to assume.