Pew offers Philly leaders best-to-worst case recovery scenarios. At stake? 70,000 jobs

Now that COVID-19 is fading, Philadelphia’s economic recovery could take off, according to a Thursday research report from the Pew Charitable Trusts.

Or, Philly’s economy could get much worse, Pew said in a report that laid out four possible scenarios for the city’s future.

The city’s jobs gains were uneven even before the pandemic. Two years later, Pew authored the report to give leaders and policymakers a roadmap for revitalizing the region, in partnership with the William Penn Foundation.

At stake are at least 70,000 jobs. Best case, Philadelphia could recover and add over 36,000 jobs by 2025, according to the Pew report. And worst case, Philadelphia could lose over 34,000 jobs in the same period, said author Larry Eichel, senior adviser with the trusts’ Philadelphia research and policy initiative.

“These are not predictions, but instead a range of possibilities,” Eichel said.

That difference of 70,000 jobs equals roughly 10% of the city’s employment, he added.

Philly boasted roughly 738,000 jobs in 2019. Going into the fall of 2021, the city was still 65,000 jobs short of that pre-pandemic figure.

“Having these jobs, or not having them, will affect a lot of people’s lives,” Eichel said. “It’s a big number.”

The factors that will shape the city’s recovery include the return of “in-person activity” -- how much workers return to officers, restaurants, and conventions -- and the city’s “attractiveness and competitiveness,” as expressed by its tax rates, regulatory policy, affordable housing supply, and other factors.

The report stopped short of making actual policy recommendations.

“Ultimately, the pandemic’s trajectory is the prime driver of these rules,” the report said. “Government officials and civil leaders will decide how effective the existing tax mix and other city policies are in generating revenue.”

Under Pew’s most optimistic “overall growth” scenario, the city would gain 36,100 jobs for a total of 774,900 jobs by 2025, about 5% higher than before the pandemic.

In a less rosy “uneven gains” scenario, the city regains 15,700 jobs for a total of 754,500 by 2025.

Or, the city could lose jobs compared to before the pandemic, under two pessimistic scenarios: in-person activity largely returns, under the “competitive loss” scenario, but Philly fails to restore its economy and loses 11,200 jobs, for a total of 727,600 by 2025.

Finally, the worst-case scenario included a 5% loss of workers, marked by fewer in-person visitors and activity, for total jobs of 704,800 by 2025, a loss of 34,100.