Round 2 in the Trump vs. Mexico matchup looks ominous for Mexico

MEXICO CITY — Mexico is facing a second Donald Trump presidency, and few countries can match its experience as a target of Trump’s rhetoric: There have been threats to close the border, impose tariffs, and even send U.S. forces to fight Mexican drug cartels if the country doesn’t do more to stem the flow of migrants and drugs.

That's not to mention what mass deportations of migrants who are in the U.S. illegally could do to remittances — the money sent home by migrants — that have become one of Mexico's main sources of income.

But as much as this second round looks like the first round — when Mexico pacified Trump by quietly ceding to his immigration demands — circumstances have changed, and not necessarily for the better. Today, Mexico has in Claudia Sheinbaum a somewhat stern leftist ideologue as president, and Trump is not known for handling such relations well.

Back in 2019, Mexico’s then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador was a charismatic, plainspoken, folksy leader who seemed to understand Trump, because both had a transactional view of politics: You give me what I want, I’ll give you what you want. The two went on to form a chummy relationship.

But while López Obrador was forged in the give-and-take politics of the often-corrupt former ruling party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, Sheinbaum grew up in a family of leftist activists and got her political experience in radical university student movements.

“Claudia is more ideological than López Obrador, and so the problem is that I see her potentially responding to Trumpian policies, whether it’s, you know, organized crime or immigration or tariffs with a much more nationalistic, jingoistic view of the relationship,” said Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico’s former ambassador to the U.S. from 2007 to 2013.

Sheinbaum made a point of being one of the first world leaders to call Trump on Thursday to congratulate him after the election, but during the call Trump did two things that may say a lot about how things will go.

First, Sheinbaum said, Trump quickly brought up the border to remind her there were issues there. Then he asked Sheinbaum to send his greetings to López Obrador, with whom Trump said he had “a very good relationship.” That might suggest that Trump believes that López Obrador — the new president's political mentor — is still in charge, a view shared by some analysts.

Sarukhan said he believes the fact that Sheinbaum is a woman and is from Mexico will be "a very important challenge, an issue out there as both of them get going in their relationship.”

There’s little likelihood that Trump will get caught up in other issues and just forget about Mexico. Karoline Leavitt, the Trump-Vance transition spokesperson, said Trump had been given “a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.”

Not everything has changed for the worse: Cross-border trade has topped $800 billion per year and U.S. companies are more dependent than ever on Mexican plants.

But the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, or USMCA, is coming up for review, and Mexico has made legal changes that Trump could seize on to demand a renegotiation of parts of the deal.

Sheinbaum has suggested Mexico won't give in even if backed into a corner, saying “we obviously are going to address any problems that come up with dialogue, as a collaborative process, and if not, we are going to stand up, we are prepared to do that with great unity.”

Standing up hasn’t worked particularly well before. In 2018, Marcelo Ebrard was Mexico’s top diplomat; former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Ebrard basically bent to U.S. demands to keep asylum seekers in Mexico and accept migrants back even if they weren’t Mexicans.

Ebrard just asked that the deal not be made public to avoid embarrassing López Obrador, Pompeo wrote. (Ebrard later claimed he had avoided signing a much worse “safe third country” agreement.)

Today, Ebrard is Mexico’s economy secretary, and would lead Mexico’s delegation in the scheduled 2026 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement, something that Trump has greeted with mirth ("I've never seen anybody fold like that," Trump once said of Ebrard.)

Ebrard on Thursday downplayed any risks this time around, saying economic ties between the two countries would keep Trump from closing borders or imposing tariffs.

“I am optimistic. Unlike other countries, we are the largest trading partner [of the U.S.], so, if you put up a tariff, that will have repercussions in the United States,” Ebrard said. “I’m not saying it is going to be easy, because it is not at all easy, but the relationship with President Trump will be good because, what unites us? These numbers, this gigantic economy.”

But some former diplomats say any argument that Mexico can avoid friction with the Trump administration is overconfident, and that 2025 is not necessarily going to be like 2019.

Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2018 to 2021, said she doesn't think Trump would back away from campaign promises to deport migrants who are in the country illegally. She said Mexican officials who believe Trump might temper his “campaign promises because Mexican migrants are necessary for the U.S. economy” are being overly optimistic.

“Mexico is looking at it through the lens of economic logic. The logic that the Trump campaign applies on immigration is a logic of national security and cultural identity issues," Bárcena said.

Some of Trump’s biggest policy concerns — restoring U.S. jobs and the increasing rivalry with China — also run through Mexico.

U.S. and foreign automakers have set up dozens of plants in Mexico, and some in the U.S. worry that Chinese companies could do the same to take advantage of existing trade rules to export Chinese cars or auto parts to the United States.

It doesn't help that Sheinbaum has pushed through López Obrador's policies aimed at eliminating independent regulatory and oversight bodies, and laws the U.S. government says could reduce the independence of the judiciary, both of which are required under the USMCA trade agreement.

“If they go ahead with the elimination of independent regulators and autonomous bodies, that’s going to be a further violation of the USMCA,” Sarukhan said. “And then that’s going to make things even worse. Obviously, the big piece is going to be China and the Chinese footprint in Mexico.”

That could lead Trump to demand the renegotiation of all auto industry agreements under the trade pact.

As far as efforts to jointly combat the illegal drug trade — such cooperation fell to historic lows in 2019 and 2020 — there have been some modestly encouraging signs. Last week, Mexico announced the seizure in Tijuana of over 300,000 fentanyl pills after months when the country’s entire seizures had amounted to as little as 50 grams — a couple of ounces — per week.

Sheinbaum, who took office on Oct. 1, also appears to be tacitly abandoning López Obrador's strategy of not confronting drug cartels. But neither she nor her predecessor and political mentor could ever accept any Trump plan to send U.S. forces to operate independently on Mexican soil.

It remains to see how far Trump might go; he often makes only token gestures to carry through on threats. But Sarukhan noted, “I do think that he will talk loudly and carry a big stick.”