How to bet on the men’s and women’s Final Four

The note about Mike Krzyzewski and Duke having never faced North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament is an interesting one, but needs a little context.

Coach K has been on the sidelines as Duke’s coach for 131 NCAA Tournament games. The Blue Devils have faced only three teams who were in the ACC at the time in that span. They beat Maryland in 2001, Syracuse in 2018, and Virginia Tech in 2019. So he’s also never faced the likes of N.C. State, Wake Forest, or Virginia -- just as Syracuse has never played Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament, nor Kentucky ever faced Florida, nor UCLA-USC.

Anyway, here’s a look at this weekend’s Final Four.

6:09 p.m. TBS

Line: Kansas -4.5. Total: 133.

Line moves: Line opened at Kansas -3.5 in some places, quickly went up to -4. There are still some -4 lines out there, but Villanova bettors can get 4.5 by shopping around.

Against the spread/NCAA Tournament: Villanova 4-0, Kansas 2-2.

KenPom.com offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions): Villanova 9th (117.2 points), Kansas 7th (118.4).

KenPom.com defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions): Villanova t-16th (91.7 points), Kansas t-16th (91.7).

Notable: The only other time Villanova was an underdog of more than 3 points was on Dec. 12, when the Wildcats scored just 36 points and lost at Baylor by 21. The Bears, conference rivals of the Jayhawks’, were favored by 5. … Villanova’s last three games have been under. … Kansas All-American Ochai Agbaji broke out of a mini-slump by shooting 8-for-12 against Miami in Sunday’s regional final. … Villanova junior guard Justin Moore is out with an Achilles tear. He’s second on the team in scoring and often the guy Jay Wright would use to defend the opponent’s top scorer. In this case, Agbaji.

Pick: Kansas has won nine in a row, covering six during the streak. Who knows, maybe the Wildcats will rally around Moore’s injury, but the call here is Kansas laying the 4.5 and going over 31.5 points in the first half.

» READ MORE: Villanova’s tournament success is historically worth betting on

8:49 p.m. TBS

Line: Duke -4.5. Total: 151.

About the line: Duke has been available at -4 during the week, even at -3.5 very briefly at PointsBet early Thursday evening. Duke was a 3.5-point favorite when it went to Chapel Hill and rolled UNC by 20 in February, and favored by 11 when North Carolina evened things up by beating Duke by 13 in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game on March 5.

Against the spread/NCAA Tournament: Duke 3-1, North Carolina 4-0.

KenPom.com offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions): Duke 1st (121.0 points), North Carolina 18th (114.3).

KenPom.com defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions): Duke t-44th (95.5 points), North Carolina t-37th (94.6).

Notable: On March 1, North Carolina was +12500 to win the championship at BetMGM (125-1). Today, the Tar Heels are +475 (about 5-1). Duke is +160, Kansas +180, and Villanova +500. … The over/under for the previous two Duke-Carolina meetings was around 152 and both went over (Duke, 87-67; North Carolina, 94-81). … UNC’s Brady Manek is 16-for-34 (47.1%) from three-point range in the tournament. In the two games against Duke, he was 11-for-20 (55.0%). … It’s not available in all jurisdictions, but Duke’s Paolo Banchero (+270) is favored to win the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player. Kansas’ Agbaji (+500) and Villanova’s Collin Gillespie (+750) are next. Manek has the lowest odds among North Carolina players at +1500.

Pick: Carolina, getting 4.5 points.

Picks record: 17-12 overall (58.6%). First round: 7-4; Second round: 3-4; Sweet Sixteen: 5-1; Elite Eight 2-3.

» READ MORE: Villanova’s era of excellence is 20 years in the making. Just ask Allan Ray. Or follow him on Twitter.

FanDuel’s odds on the eight possibilities on how Monday’s championship will be decided:

“This is the first year we put up every game of the tournament along with futures,” said Tom Gable, director of the race & sports book at the Borgata in Atlantic City. “So it has taken in more interest than in the past when we would only put up the Final Four and championship game.”

A look at this weekend’s Final Four in Minneapolis.

» READ MORE: Gene Banks put Duke and Coach K on the map for great Black players

7 p.m, ESPN

Line: South Carolina -8. Total: 119.5.

About the line: Dawn Staley and South Carolina are 8-point favorites. The over/under at DraftKings is 119.5, and Louisville’s team total is 55.5. The Cardinals have played six ranked teams in the last six weeks and averaged 72.0 points while going 5-1 straight up.

Pick: The opposing scores in No. 1-ranked South Carolina’s first four tournament wins were 21, 33, 61, and 50, so don’t run to the window with cash in both hands. But a piece on Louisville’s scoring more than 55 points is worth considering.

» READ MORE: Call Dawn Staley a villain if you want. She’ll just keep winning. | Mike Jensen

9:30 p.m., ESPN

Line: Stanford -1. Total: 129.

About the line: UConn’s in the Final Four for the 14th consecutive tournament. Unreal. The game is in Minneapolis where the Huskies started this dynasty by winning the 1995 national championship. “The Target Center,” Connecticut coach Geno Auriemma said earlier this week, “will always have a special place in our hearts in Connecticut.”

Pick: Stanford’s size up front is daunting, but Paige Bueckers getting a point or more is worth the sweat. UConn +1.

» READ MORE: Scorecards, trophies and a broken finger: Philly’s basketball lifers share their oldest hoops possessions | Mike Jensen

NBA: The MVP market continues its volatility as Denver’s Nikola Jokic surged past Joel Embiid this week after consecutive Sixers losses on Sunday and Tuesday. Jokic has moved ahead to a stunning -165 with Embiid at +135 entering Thursday’s game at Detroit. When the Sixers acquired James Harden in February, Embiid was the favorite at 2-1 with Jokic at 3-1.

MLB: Caesars opened the over/under on the Phillies’ win total this season at 85.5. They won 82 last year in Joe Girardi’s first full season as the manager. Division rivals Atlanta and New York are at 90.5. The Dodgers (98.5) are well ahead of everyone else in Caesars’ preseason prognostications. The Orioles (62.5) bring up the rear.

» READ MORE: Opinion ‘Nobody in here is scared’, says Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber as Mets loom in the NL East

NBA: A couple of places took the rookie of the year market off the board after Cleveland’s Evan Mobley sprained his ankle on Monday. It looked rough at first, but when it was reported on Wednesday that Mobley would miss only a few games, the market reopened. Mobley’s odds dipped slightly from -450 to -400.

Tiger Woods is down to 50-1 to win next week’s Masters. Here are some opening specials via BetMGM’s John Ewing:

The Circa in Vegas had his odds to miss the cut as of Thursday morning a much more enticing -120. Woods hasn’t played in an official tournament since the 2020 Masters, which was in November that year. He played in the informal pro-am alongside his son Charlie in December.