How to bet on Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 games
Don't wager on Villanova winning it all without Collin Gillespie earning Most Outstanding Player honors. Also, there are other betting tips for the Regional semifinals.
Villanova is 13-1 to win the national title, not terrible odds considering they’re playing an 11-seed with 14 losses in the regional semifinals. They’re 14-1 at DraftKings and BetMGM. But there’s a way to make those odds even more lucrative, though it involves a little more risk and isn’t available in every jurisdiction.
The engine that runs the Wildcats’ machine is guard Collin Gillespie, the Big East player of the year and a holdover from Villanova’s last championship team in 2018. FanDuel has odds on Gillespie to win the tournament’s most outstanding player at 22-1. The top two on their odds board both play for Gonzaga: forward Drew Timme with his Studio 54 throwback mustache (+550) and freshman center Chet Holmgren at +850.
This isn’t a recommendation, but if you believe in Villanova then taking Gillespie might be the better play. Hard to see the Wildcats win their third title in the last six years without him leading the way.
» READ MORE: Collin Gillespie’s game was Northeast Philly-made before Villanova even happened
Here’s a look at Thursday’s Sweet 16 games.
7 p.m./CBS - 1-Gonzaga (-9.5) vs. 4-Arkansas (o/u 155)
At San Francisco
Gonzaga has looked beatable in its first two tournament games, but still hung 92 on Georgia State and 82 on Memphis. Both games went over. … On the other hand, Gonzaga has played in all six Sweet 16s since 2015 and all went under. The average of those games was 131.8. Three times the Zags were a 1-seed. … Arkansas played 15th-seeded Oral Roberts in last year’s Sweet 16, and needed a last-second shot to avoid the upset. This year, they get the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed in this round. Against the spread/Last five: Gonzaga 1-4, Arkansas 2-3.
Pick: With wins over then-No. 1 Auburn and then-No. 6 Kentucky, Arkansas won’t be afraid of the moment. So we’ll take the Razorbacks with the points.
7:15 p.m./TBS - 2-Villanova (5) vs. 11-Michigan (135.5)
At San Antonio
This will be the third time Villanova meets Michigan in the tournament. The Wildcats won the championship each of the previous two (1985, 2018). The 2018 meeting also was in San Antonio, though at the AlamoDome. This will be at the AT&T center where the NBA’s Spurs play. … Michigan’s team total is 65.5 points. Villanova’s defense hasn’t given up more than 65 in its last six games. … DraftKings has a prop on which team will advance further between Villanova (-200) or Duke (+160). If they go out in the same round, it’s a push. If you like Villanova, a smarter play might be a money-line parlay on them against Michigan at -210 and Texas Tech -115 over Duke on Thursday. Payout is about +176. ATS/Last five: Villanova 3-2, Michigan 3-2.
Pick: Love the way Villanova responded when Ohio State pushed them late, and expect something similar here. Kittens laying 5.
» READ MORE: Eric Dixon made sure he and Villanova headed to the Sweet 16 on a high note
9:20 p.m./CBS - 2-Duke (+1) vs. 3-Texas Tech (137)
At San Francisco
Texas Tech is first in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating, and is a slight favorite here despite being seeded a little higher. “A more casual fan may think Duke would be a prohibitive favorite, but the oddsmakers know and deeply respect Texas Tech,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars. “If they’re banking solely on the Coach K factor, they’re sorely mistaken because this will not be a cakewalk.” ATS/Last five: Duke 1-4, Texas Tech 2-3.
Pick: Taking Duke not because Mike Krzyzewski is retiring after this season, but because Paolo Banchero will be the best player on the court.
9:35 p.m./TBS - 1-Arizona (-1.5) vs. 5-Houston (145)
At San Antonio
Top-seeded Arizona was lucky to survive last week, and maybe should have lost if a foul would have been called on TCU’s last possession. Houston has covered nine of its last 10 and, as Caesars’ Pullen said, “They’re a better version of TCU.” ATS/Last five: Arizona 2-3, Houston 5-0.
Pick: Under 68.5 points for the first half is tempting, but we’re gonna hold off for now.
Record for first two rounds: 10-8 (55.6%).
Lines via DraftKings. Spread records via VegasInsider.com. Game times approximate.
Event description: While Villanova heads to San Antonio for the tournament’s South Regional, the East Regional is coming to Philly and The Inquirer will be in both locations every step of the way. Join college hoops experts Mike Jensen and Mike Sielski as they offer an insider’s look at Villanova’s tournament run and break down the rest of the field during a special edition of Gameday Central. Tune in Friday, March 25 at 2:15 PM as Jensen and Sielski chat with Inquirer columnist David Murphy on Inquirer LIVE.