What are the traits of ‘Cinderella’ teams that make a run in the NCAA Tournament? Here are four.
Evaluating teams that were seeded No. 11 or lower that made a deep run in the tournament, these were the four key characteristics we found
As March Madness gets going with the tip-off of the men’s field of 64, there will undoubtedly be upsets, from teams that get hot at the right time.
There is an abundance of these stories, even as recently as last year’s tournament when we were treated to a Saint Peter’s run that reinvigorated a term synonymous with the NCAA Tournament, both men’s and women’s: the Cinderella team.
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But what is a Cinderella team? Well, the NCAA defined it as any team that “greatly exceeds its NCAA Tournament aspirations.” Essentially, these are the teams seeded No. 11 or lower that make a considerable deep run in the tournament.
How deep? The round-of-16 is always impressive, but making it into the Elite Eight and Final Four? Those are the runs that get remembered every time March comes around.
So what have been the hallmarks of a true Cinderella team? The Inquirer took look at a sizable chunk of programs seeded No. 11 or lower that caused a stir in the tournament.
In a few of the most notable Cinderella teams in recent memory, we found four key characteristics that helped in producing a little magic at the right time.
Be big under the boards
A huge part of basketball is not just scoring but being able to control the clock. The best way to do that effectively is to outrebound your opponent.
Perhaps the one team that comes to mind in particular is George Mason’s run during the 2005-06 season. As the No. 11 seed, the Patriots knocked off the defending champions in No. 3 North Carolina in the second round and a top-seeded UConn team in the Elite Eight. In both of those games, Mason kept pace in the defensive rebounds category, grabbing just two shy of UNC’s total (27-25) and outrebounding the Huskies in their Elite Eight matchup, 22-20.
Possess the ball, own the clock, and control the tempo. George Mason figured this out to the tune of arguably becoming one of the greatest Cinderella teams, ever.
Be better in the turnover battle
Press creates steals; steals create fast breaks. Fast breaks (or counters) cause havoc for an offense that has to transition quickly to defensive responsibilities.
Look no further than two local programs that did exactly that. According to college basketball statistics from sportsreference.com, a cumulative aggregation of offensive and defensive turnovers shows Villanova’s 2008-09 run to the Final Four saw the No. 12-seeded Wildcats take the edge in turnover margin differential at a rate of three created to each one it committed (20.4% offensive TOV% - 23.4% defensive TOV%).
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La Salle’s 2013 run to the Sweet 16 will always be remembered for Tyrone Garland and the “Southwest Philly Floater” against Ole Miss, but over the course of the season, the No. 13 seeded Explorers were similar in their ability to create turnovers, with a turnover margin differential of four turnovers to each one they committed. The Explorers ranked 72nd in the nation in turnovers created that season, forcing opponents to cough up the ball 486 times.
Free throws are your friend
In games that are tight, being clutch from the free throw line and taking advantage of one of the few ways to create separation is a must.
Last year’s run by Saint Peter’s might be the best example of this. One of the things the Peacocks did well in their run to the Elite Eight, besides the fortunate advantage of having a starting five that averaged 6-foot, 3-inches was making sure they won the free throw game.
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In their first-round game against No. 2-seeded Kentucky, the No. 15 Peacocks went 18 of 21 (85.7%) from the line. The Wildcats? Just 23 of 35 (65.7%).
Second round vs. No. 7 Murray State? Saint Peter’s shot 23 of 31 (74.2%) from the line and won, 70-60. Sweet 16 vs. No. 3 Purdue? Saint Peter’s was 19 of 21 (90.5%), and won, 67-64.
In their 69-49 loss to No. 8 North Carolina, the Peacocks only got five chances to shoot for two in that game. It’s almost as if the Tar Heels discovered that free throws had been the Achilles’ heel for the teams before them. They kept fouls to a minimum and ended Saint Peter’s Cinderella run.
In those five attempts? The Peacocks made 9 of 10 (90%).
Drop it like it’s hot
In basketball, the term is offensive efficiency. KenPom explains it as the number of points scored per 100 attempts. Whether it’s driving the lane and laying one in or pulling up from deep, the more times those attempts go in the better chance there is at securing the W.
In 2011, No. 11 seeded Virginia Commonwealth made a remarkable run to the Sweet 16. Over the course of the season and into throughout its NCAA Tournament matchups, VCU finished with ranking of 47th in the nation in offensive efficiency.
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Remember, the treat that was the 2013 Florida Gulf Coast team and its run to the Sweet 16? Not only was that team the first No. 15 seed to make it to the Sweet 16, after dunking all over second-seeded Georgetown, 78-68, and No. 7 seed San Diego State, 81-71 but the Eagles won by a full 10-point margin in both games.
The San Diego State game saw the most offensive production, with the team going 55.9% from the field on 33 of 59 shooting.
Shoot to score might seem obvious, but it’s not easy. So when an unlikely team does it, on the biggest stage in college basketball, it’s impossible to not root for an underdog whose run feels like a fairy tale.
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