Giant Killers, Philly coaches, and bye-bye Coach K: Best bets in the NCAA Tournament
How far will Villanova go? Is Vermont undervalued as a 13 seed? Which No. 1 seed goes down first? An initial look at the 68-team field.
WynnBet opened Villanova as 16.5-point favorites over Delaware in Friday’s first-round game (2:45 p.m., CBS). It’s a spread that aligns with the other games between the No. 2 and No. 15 seeds. The over/under is 133.
This will be the first time Villanova and Delaware have met in the NCAA Tournament, but it’s not the first postseason meeting between these two fierce football rivals. Villanova beat Delaware in the first round of the 2000 NIT.
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The sportsbooks were sharp with Villanova this season. The Wildcats are 26-7 straight up, but just 16-16-1 against the spread, according to Vegas Insider. Delaware is 22-12 SU, 15-18 against the number. A December game against Moravian was off the board.
Here’s a breakdown of the 68-team field with opening lines from Sunday night.
Updated game lines: DraftKings (Pa.), WynnBet (N.J.)
West Region
My pick to win it: Gonzaga. The Zags should walk to the Elite 8 where either Duke or Texas Tech will await. I have Texas Tech.
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Giant Killers: 13th-seeded Vermont won their conference tournament games by 39, 32 and 39 points, which led UMBC coach Jim Ferry to say, “It wouldn’t shock me if they make a run like Loyola-Chicago did [when it went to the Final Four in 2018]. That’s how good these guys are. That’s a big-time basketball team.” The Catamounts, 5.5-point ‘dogs, play Arkansas in the first round in Buffalo. … 12th-seeded New Mexico State has the WAC’s regular-season MVP and tournament MVP in Teddy Allen. They also have a win over Davidson (in November), and plenty of depth. The Aggies, however, will be traveling cross country and playing Connecticut in Buffalo, which won’t be easy.
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Obvious rout: Gonzaga, the No. 1 overall seed, is laying 24.5 to Georgia State – the largest line on the board.
Looking forward to: Seeing how far second-seeded Duke will go in Mike Krzyzewski’s final NCAA Tournament. Krzyzewski could see Tom Izzo and Michigan State in the second round. Krzyzewski is 12-3 against Izzo, though Izzo has won two of the last three.
Three quick picks: Rutgers will beat Alabama on Friday. … Vermont will be in the Sweet 16. … Montana State will cover the 16.5-point spread against Texas Tech.
South Region
My pick to win it: Tennessee. The Volunteers have won seven in a row, covering five.
Giant Killers: 12th-seeded Alabama-Birmingham has won seven in a row and opened as 8-point ‘dogs to Houston. UAB guard Jelly Walker has a great nickname and ice water in his veins. Made all 24 of his free throws in the Conference USA semifinals and finals.
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Obvious rout: Tennessee over Longwood. The Volunteers, who should have been higher than a No. 3 seed, opened as 17-point favorites.
Looking forward to: Seeing whether 11th-seeded Michigan, which actually was favored by 2.5 points against sixth-seeded Colorado State, rebounds from an epic collapse to Indiana in their Big Ten Tournament opener. Lots of drama around that team lately. … Seeing how fourth-seeded Illinois, which lost in the second round last year as a No. 1 seed, fares against No. 13 Chattanooga on Friday. Line is 7.5. No. 13 seeds are 5-7 straight up against No. 4s over the last three years. … Bryant beating Wright State on Wednesday so Peter Kiss, the nation’s leading scorer at 25.1 per, can go up against Arizona.
Three quick picks: Ohio State will beat Villanova in the second round. … Seton Hall will give Arizona fits in the second round. … Illinois-Chattanooga will go under 138.5.
Midwest Region
My pick to win it: Kansas. They were 14-1 to win the national title on March 1. Shoulda grabbed it.
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Giant Killers: 13th-seeded South Dakota State has won 21 in a row and probably deserved better than having to play Providence in Buffalo. That line opened with Providence laying just 1.5. … 14th-seeded Colgate, another mid-major on a nice run (15 in a row), gets No. 3 Wisconsin in Milwaukee. Wisky’s laying 8.
Obvious rout: Kansas to roll in the first round, especially if the Jayhawks get Texas A&M-CC. The Islanders are ranked 243rd in Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. Kansas is 6th.
Looking forward to: Iowa-Richmond. Iowa coach Fran McCaffrey played at La Salle High. Richmond coach Chris Mooney played at Archbishop Ryan. This game’s in Buffalo, but the Palestra would be more appropriate. Iowa is laying 10.
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Three quick picks: Kansas will play Iowa in the Sweet 16. Winner will win the region. … Auburn will not cover the 17-point spread against Jacksonville State. … Iowa State (+5) will beat LSU outright.
East Region
My pick to win it: Purdue. Second year in a row the Big Ten has nine teams dancing. Last year, they all turned an ankle and didn’t get to the Final Four.
Giant Killers: Reaching a bit here. 11th-seeded Virginia Tech stole a bid by winning the ACC Tournament. They’ll get sixth-seeded Texas, which has lost three in a row. Two of them were narrow defeats to Baylor and Kansas.
Obvious rout: No. 2 seed Kentucky over St. Peter’s. Oscar Tshiebwe, a leading candidate for national player of the year, had 27 double-doubles in 33 games.
Looking forward to: Seventh-seeded Murray State playing 10th-seeded San Francisco in the late Friday night window. Murray State has won 20 in a row behind Ohio Valley Conference player of the year KJ Williams. San Fran is in the tournament for the first time in 24 years.
Three quick picks: Baylor will be the first No. 1 seed to lose (vs. North Carolina in the second round). … Akron (+15.5) will cover against UCLA. … Virginia Tech-Texas (126.5 over/under) will resemble a dentist appointment.