Bookies aren’t out of the woods yet with March Madness

It’s been a pretty good tournament for the bookies, especially some of those in New Jersey who didn’t get hurt by St. Peter’s run to the Sweet 16. The Vegas bookies were crying when the Peacocks knocked off Kentucky and Purdue because of money-line liabilities in the millions. They all breathed a sigh of relief when Duke was knocked out on Saturday, joining other top liabilities Gonzaga and Arizona.

Caesars, for instance, was able to avoid one $200,000 ticket on Duke at +210 and another at $20,000 back when the Blue Devils were at 14-1.

They’re not totally out of the woods, and they’re probably rooting for North Carolina to win on Monday.

In late February, Kansas was at 15-1 when Caesars wrote a $14,000 ticket on the Jayhawks to win the championship ($210,000 payout). Before Saturday’s semifinals, Mattress Mack put up $3.3 million on Kansas at +180 to win the title. The Jayhawks’ money line to win Monday’s game (as of Sunday afternoon) was -200.

In other words, Mack stands to win $6.27 million because he placed the wager before the Final Four games. Had he waited until Sunday afternoon when the matchup was decided, his potential winnings would be $1.65 million. The difference is $4.62 million. Timing is everything.

Monday/at New Orleans: Kansas vs. North Carolina, 9:20 p.m. TBS

Line: Kansas -4.5. Total: 152.5.

Line moves: Generally opened at 4.5. BetMGM dipped down to 3.5 late Saturday while WynnBet got to 5 very early Sunday morning.

Against the spread/NCAA Tournament: Kansas 3-2, North Carolina 5-0.

KenPom.com offensive efficiency (points per 100 poss.): Kansas, 6th (119.6.). North Carolina, 18th (114.7.).

KenPom.com defensive efficiency (points per 100 poss.): Kansas, t-17th (92.0). North Carolina, 39th (94.7).

Notable: Haven’t played one another since the 2013 tournament when Kansas beat North Carolina. They had the same seeds then – Kansas 1, North Carolina 8 – as they do today. Played in the 1957 championship game when UNC beat Wilt Chamberlain and the Jayhawks 54-53 in triple overtime. Imagine a game going three OTs and still not hitting the over. A bad beat in black-and-white. … Interesting matchup inside between Kansas big man David McCormack and North Carolina’s Armando Bacot, who obviously must avoid foul trouble. Not much behind him if he’s limited. DraftKings’ over/under line on McCormack’s points was 10.5, a nod to Carolina’s interior defense after McCormack dropped 25 on Villanova Saturday. Individual player props are not available in many jurisdictions.

Pick: Riding the hot hand of Kansas’ All-American Ochai Agbaji, who is 8-for-12 and 6-for-8 shooting in his last two games. He’s hit 8-of-9 on three-pointers. Yikes. Kansas laying 4.5.

Went 5-0 during the national semifinals with men’s wins on Kansas -4.5, Kansas first half over 31, North Carolina +4.5; and Louisville’s women going over 55 points, and UConn at +1 on Friday.

This boosted the record to 22-12 overall (64.7%). Men’s picks: First round: 7-4. Second round: 3-4, Sweet Sixteen: 5-1. Elite Eight 2-3, Final Four 3-0. Women’s Final Four 2-0.

Reminder, the author is not a professional bettor. He just got a little hot.