Bubble Watch: Big 5 schools could miss out on March Madness entirely

Last year, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament carried on without a representative from the Big 5′s six schools for the first time since 1977. Former Inquirer columnist Mike Jensen aptly dubbed the occasion No-Selection Sunday.

Thankfully, we had Maddy Siegrist and the Villanova women’s team carrying the torch to the second weekend and enough Philly-related stories to keep things interesting on the men’s side.

That might’ve just been a soft launch for Philly’s March Sadness, because if the season ended today, and if ESPN’s prognosticators have the fields right, it could be a complete Philly shutout on both the men’s and women’s side.

That scenario seems unlikely to play out, especially since the St. Joseph’s women’s team is now 24-2 after beating La Salle on Sunday afternoon in Olney, and there is still plenty of basketball to be played.

A repeat of last year — no men’s participants, one women’s participant — seems like the likeliest scenario as we enter late February.

Still, the Hawks entered the weekend on the wrong side of the bubble, according to ESPN’s Charlie Creme.

Here’s a look at where the Big 5 teams stand in their pursuit of postseason basketball.

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How can you be 24-2 and on the wrong side of the bubble? It’s life in a sometimes-single-bid league like the Atlantic 10. It’s also the nature of the schedule. The Hawks haven’t earned a win against any team in Creme’s projected field. Their best wins are over rival Villanova, which is also seemingly on the wrong side of the bubble, and George Mason.

They lost to No. 22 Utah, and to Richmond, which leads the A-10 and is in the conference’s automatic qualifier spot in Creme’s bracket.

What’s the path? Keep winning games and reach the conference tournament final. The rest should take care of itself. Otherwise, cross your fingers.

The Wildcats have won three of their last four, the latest a 70-54 road win at Georgetown Friday night.

Villanova is KenPom’s 30th rated team, but the Wildcats are on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble right now thanks to a few bad losses (Penn, St. Joe’s, Drexel) and a five-game losing streak in Big East play.

But there are winnable games coming up, starting with Tuesday night vs. Butler, and a chance at a major resumé-building road win at No. 1 Connecticut on Saturday.

What’s the path? Win four of six to close the regular season and then win at least one game in the Big East Tournament.

Like St. Joe’s, Villanova entered the weekend on the outside looking in. But unlike St. Joe’s, the Wildcats (16-9, 9-5 Big East) lost over the weekend, falling to Butler at home, 55-52, on Saturday afternoon.

Lucy Olsen has been dominant, and Christina Dalce has improved, but the Wildcats have some work to get back to the tournament for the third straight season.

What’s the path? Win three of four to close the regular season (beating UConn on the road would help), and win at least two Big East Tournament games. One could do it, but it would be dicey.

» READ MORE: Despite injuries, Justin Moore is giving ‘as much as I can’ for Villanova as it makes an NCAA push

Drexel (17-10) started Coastal Athletic Association play by winning its first seven — proving its signature win over Villanova was no fluke — before falling back to earth a little bit.

The Dragons are in good shape to get a double bye and start the CAA Tournament in the quarterfinals, but they’ll need to run the table and win the conference tournament to get a bid.

If the season ended today, Penn (12-11) wouldn’t be playing in the Ivy League Tournament. The Quakers are a game out of fourth place with just four games remaining.

There’s an uphill climb, to be sure, but reaching Ivy Madness isn’t out of the question. And once you get there, it only takes two wins to go dancing.

» READ MORE: Lucas Monroe is Drexel’s ‘glue guy,’ but the least interesting thing about him is basketball

It has been quite an interesting year for the Hawks, who went 10-3 in the nonconference portion of the schedule, which included wins over Villanova and Princeton and an overtime defeat at Kentucky. But it also included a home loss to Texas A&M-Commerce. Then came an 0-3 start to conference play to completely derail any talks of an at-large bid.

St. Joe’s (16-10) has dealt with injuries, but the only path to the NCAA Tournament is running the table in Brooklyn at the A-10 tourney. The Hawks have the talent to get hot.

Diane Richardson’s bunch is 8-4 in the American Athletic Conference entering Monday’s home game vs. Tulane, when the 14-10 Owls will go for their third straight victory.

There’s no chance at an at-large bid, but the Owls are in second place in the conference and have as good a chance as any to reach the AAC Tournament final and have the talent to knock off top-seeded North Texas.

Sorry to the Penn, La Salle, and Temple men, and to the Drexel and La Salle women. But the math just isn’t in your favor. But that’s why they play the games.

Anyone else eager for March to start?