Does Penn State have the ingredients to win a national title? Dominant running game, defense will be key.

Two losses by a combined 15 points stand between Penn State and a different narrative surrounding its football program. Since James Franklin’s outburst after a 2018 loss against Ohio State in which he said his team “is great, but not elite,” his Nittany Lions are certainly closer than they’ve ever been.

In the biggest games on its schedule since a magical Big Ten championship run in 2016, Penn State has come up short. But after a dominant performance against Southern Methodist in the first round of the College Football Playoff, Penn State (12-2) is showing an all-or-nothing mindset.

The sixth-seeded Nittany Lions, preparing to take on No. 3 seed Boise State (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl, are set up for a national championship run with a more favorable playoff draw than other teams. But does this Penn State roster have enough juice to get to Atlanta on Jan. 20 for all the marbles? Here’s our breakdown of where Penn State stands ahead of its matchup with Boise State on New Year’s Eve (7:30 p.m., ESPN).

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Star pass rusher Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, and the rest of the Penn State defensive line had Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings under duress on Saturday, finishing with three sacks. And for most of the season, Penn State has found a lot of success getting after the quarterback by rushing just four players, led by Carter, who has lined up in several spots pre-snap. The former La Salle College High star leads the Nittany Lions with 11 sacks, and his activity has freed up several of his teammates, including Sutton.

But one player who made a large jump with his play in the interior has been Zane Durant, whose disruptiveness and quickness have played a big part in Penn State’s seventh-ranked rushing defense this season (100.4 yards per game). Although he’s not your typical interior lineman, listed at 6-foot-1 and 288 pounds, Durant ranks second in tackles for losses on the team with 10 and has exhibited growth in a leadership role as well.

“I think I just do it every day with my habits and what I do every day in the facility, coming in, rehab, treatment, my daily habits showing up, being intentional on [watching] film,” Durant said last week.

Penn State’s consistency in creating negative plays has allowed it to dictate the pace of the game, but when the pass rush has struggled to get after the quarterback, teams like Oregon and Southern Cal moved the ball with ease against the Lions. Having consistent disruption can take Penn State deep into the playoff if the pass rushers keep performing like they did against SMU.

After the Big Ten championship loss to Oregon, running back Nicholas Singleton contended that he and fellow back Kaytron Allen are “the best backfield in the nation. Pick your poison, when one of us are on the field, there’s no drop-off.” But what makes the two special is how different their skill sets are utilized in offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s scheme.

While Allen has become the go-to back on short-yardage situations and is more of a bruising type, Singleton is a one-cut-and-go running back, as his acceleration and explosiveness can spring a big play at any moment. Each has eight rushing touchdowns this season, but Singleton has been utilized much more as a receiver out of the backfield (five receiving touchdowns), and in jet sweep motions to give the Shillington native a running start and space to operate.

The formula hasn’t been the same in every game this season, but when both Allen and Singleton are involved in the offensive game plan, good things tend to happen. Over their last two games, Allen is averaging 7.76 yards per carry and Singleton is averaging 8.13, exuding the physicality that wears down defenses by the time the fourth quarter starts. Singleton attributes their late-game effectiveness to Penn State’s coaching staff cutting back the duo’s reps in practice as the regular season waned.

“Me and Kaytron are playing a high level right now, especially these past couple games,” Singleton said Thursday. “The coaches, they’re taking care of us more in practice, the reps are cutting down full speed, [there’s] more jog-through reps, and me and Kaytron being in the treatment room taking care of our bodies, just being ready for [those] Saturday games.”

Tight end Tyler Warren is the focal point of the Penn State offense and quarterback Drew Allar steers the ship, but the Nittany Lions have gotten inconsistent production from the wide receiver position.

Harrison Wallace (686 yards) and Omari Evans (350) have four receiving touchdowns apiece, but each had at least one game when he went without a catch. Wallace has by far been the more consistent receiver of the pair, but a fade route from Allar to Wallace that turned into an interception against Ohio State and another dropped pass in the third quarter of that Nov. 2 matchup played a big part in that loss.

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Evans had eight of his 19 catches this season in the first three weeks but was inconsistent in conference play, scoring one touchdown on 10 catches in nine Big Ten games.

Transfer Julian Fleming and Liam Clifford have each scored once this season and have 14 and 18 receptions, respectively, but neither has emerged as a legitimate running mate to Wallace. When Warren was held to just 33 receiving yards against SMU, Wallace, Evans, Fleming, and Clifford combined for five catches for 55 yards. Similarly against Ohio State, when Warren had 47 receiving yards, the four wideouts combined for three receptions for 49 yards.

Production from more than just one of those four players will be vital when opponents force Penn State to throw to a player not named Warren. Kotelnicki has done a nice job of moving Warren around to ensure that his tight end still gets the ball, but as the Nittany Lions move deeper into the playoffs, finding reliability among the receivers can improve the offense’s margin for error.

Defensively, six of the team’s 15 interceptions have come from linebackers (Tony Rojas and Dom DeLuca with three each). Safety Jaylen Reed, the most consistent player in Penn State’s secondary, has three himself. The remaining six are spread out among the Lions’ cornerbacks, led by A.J. Harris, the Georgia transfer who has allowed just one touchdown and 56.1% of his targets to be completed, according to Pro Football Focus. Opposite of Harris, Jalen Kimber has been inconsistent, allowing receptions on eight of 10 targets over the last three games, according to PFF, while Cam Miller and Zion Tracy have shown some great closing ability but also have allowed some big plays in critical moments.

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For Penn State to take the next step defensively, the defensive backs must find ways to get their hands on the ball more often.

The stars are present for Penn State on both sides of the ball, and Allar has played much better in big spots this season. But if the Nittany Lions’ receivers and defensive backs cannot find consistent play, Penn State will have a hard time advancing further in the College Football Playoff.