Can Penn State punt Boise State and inch closer to a national title? Inquirer writers weigh in.

Penn State is three wins away from capturing its first national championship since 1986.

Standing in the way of the sixth-seeded Nittany Lions is No. 3 seed Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve, a quarterfinal clash as part of the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

Penn State (12-2, 7-1 Big Ten) will face the Broncos on Tuesday (7:30 p.m., ESPN) coming off a dominant 38-10 win over Southern Methodist in the opening round. Now the Nittany Lions are 10.5-point favorites, but Boise State is no slouch. The Broncos are 12-1 (7-0 Mountain West) with two wins against ranked opponents this season and just a three-point loss to No. 1 Oregon in September.

Boise State’s biggest key to success this season? The explosiveness of junior running back Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman Trophy runner-up leads college football with 2,497 rushing yards and is close to eclipsing the single-season record set by Barry Sanders in 1988. However, Penn State prides itself on stopping the run, led by defensive end Abdul Carter, who is lauded as one of the best run stoppers in the nation.

Carter plays a big role in a Penn State defense that ranks in the top 10 in the nation in scoring defense (seventh) and yards per game (fourth).

Ahead of the showdown, Inquirer writers Devin Jackson, Jeff Neiburg, and Avery Hill offer their predictions.

» READ MORE: Penn State puts its focus on stopping Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman runner-up

Devin Jackson: Penn State will face the best running back it will see all season. Boise State’s Jeanty is an all-world talent, and stopping him will be the top priority defensively and a large determining factor in winning this game. The Broncos offense, led by their coordinator and former NFL coach Dirk Koetter, will likely test the discipline of Penn State’s defense with early-down play-action passes, trying to get quarterback Maddux Madsen in rhythm and keep the Nittany Lions defense off balance.

Ultimately, Penn State’s offensive line will wear down Boise State’s stout defensive front and gash it with big runs. The Broncos’ pass defense was among the worst in college football, and Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki should be able to hit some big plays downfield. I think Boise State hangs in tough in the first half, and Jeanty gets the all-time single-season rushing record, but I am backing the Nittany Lions to punch their ticket to Miami on Jan. 9.

Prediction: Penn State 38, Boise State 24

Jeff Neiburg: Toto, we’re not in Boise anymore. While Saquon Barkley is making running backs cool again in the NFL, Jeanty is reminding college football fans how valuable the position is. But this isn’t Mountain West football anymore. Penn State’s run defense is unlike any Jeanty has faced this season. It’s the best run defense remaining in the College Football Playoff. No team has been able to stop the player who had a real argument for the Heisman. Jeanty has gone over 125 yards in every game. But Penn State has the ability to at least limit him, and that’s more than enough, combined with the other advantages the Nittany Lions have on the field, to send Penn State through to the semifinals.

Penn State’s offense continues to just get by, but this is an opponent you can do that against.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Boise State 15

» READ MORE: Fiesta Bowl matchup: Physical Penn State faces a Boise State team that boasts a superstar

Avery Hill: All the talk about Boise State has been Jeanty. It’s for good reason. Penn State’s front four will be the best that the Broncos have seen, and their interior line has given up tons of penetration all year. But Jeanty has racked up 1,889 yards after contact, and I don’t think the train stops Tuesday with a Heisman snub in his rearview and the single-season rushing record on the line. His elusiveness will certainly be highlighted. While the Nittany Lions consistently fill their gaps, they miss tons of tackles trying to make the highlight play and over-pursuing.

On the other side, Penn State will put forth a solid offensive showing, with running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen playing the biggest roles. It will be a close game throughout, but at the end of the day, Jeanty closes things out and sends Boise State to the College Football Playoff semifinal round.

Prediction: Boise State 34, Penn State 28

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