Here’s what a win (or a loss) against No. 2 Michigan could mean for No. 9 Penn State

Beat the Wolverines, and the Nittany Lions preserve the opportunity to be considered as one of the nation’s top four teams. Lose, and playoff hopes will likely be put to bed for yet another year.

by Seth Engle

Published Nov. 9, 2023, 1:20 p.m. ET

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — The implications are overwhelming in No. 9 Penn State’s tilt with No. 2 Michigan on Saturday. James Franklin’s clock has ticked for nine years to make a debut in the College Football Playoff, and with postseason expansion on the horizon, this season will mark his last attempt to qualify under the four-team format.

With a win over the Wolverines (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten), the Nittany Lions would preserve the opportunity to be considered as one of the nation’s top four teams despite a loss to Ohio State in October. A defeat, however, would likely put playoff hopes to bed for yet another year.

Here’s a breakdown of Penn State’s path to the playoff or alternate postseason spot before the team’s fate-deciding test against Michigan.

Path to the playoff

Franklin’s resumé is packed with New Year’s Six bowl games, but his program has remained outside the threshold of truly being among the elite teams because of the Nittany Lions’ inability to beat Ohio State and/or Michigan and an inability to finish a season unbeaten or with just one loss.

A victory over the Wolverines, the two-time reigning Big Ten champions, would finally boost the Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1) into elite territory — if they also win their remaining two games against Rutgers and Michigan State.

“We’ve got to capitalize when those moments come because there [are] about four to six moments or plays a game in these types of games that you’ve got to capitalize on, and we need to capitalize,” Franklin said Monday.

With a leap into the upper class of college football, Penn State could also lock in a playoff bid despite the potential three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten East if the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

Of the three teams, the third-ranked Buckeyes have the most difficult strength of schedule, with wins over the Nittany Lions and Notre Dame, now ranked No. 22. However, Penn State would likely have the advantage in a tiebreaker to make the Big Ten championship game since it has a better cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents (8-10).

With a possible rematch with unranked Iowa in the conference title game, the Nittany Lions would likely have enough juice to qualify for the playoff with three ranked wins to Ohio State’s two and Michigan’s one.

“In these types of games, we have to show that we can manufacture yards and points against whoever we’re playing,” Franklin said. “But I think there’s a way to do that, and I also think as a coaching staff, we have to be patient.”

Non-playoff bowl projections

Losing to the Wolverines would kill chances of a playoff appearance for the 10th consecutive year of Franklin’s tenure but would not rule out an appearance in a second straight New Year’s Six bowl.

Penn State could earn an at-large bid to the Peach Bowl and face No. 8 Alabama if the Crimson Tide face No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship and lose. But if Alabama triumphs and returns to the playoff, that could set the stage for a Peach Bowl matchup with either No. 10 Ole Miss, No. 15 Oklahoma State, or No. 20 Tulane.

If not a trip to Atlanta, the Nittany Lions could make an appearance in the Fiesta Bowl, where they beat Washington, 35-28, in 2017. Penn State’s most likely opponent in this bowl game at the moment would be No. 6 Oregon, led by quarterback Bo Nix.

Franklin would likely hope to avoid another absence from the playoff and could do so by making sure the Ohio State loss “doesn’t get us twice, which has happened in the past,” he said after falling to the Buckeyes.