How does No. 3 Penn State matchup with No. 4 Ohio State? Here’s who has the edge.
Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State. Does his Nittany Lions team have enough to end their seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes?
Saturday’s Penn State-Ohio State game will be the first top-5 matchup at Beaver Stadium since 1999, with plenty at stake for both teams. Penn State head coach James Franklin has beaten the Buckeyes just once in 10 previous tries, while Ohio State’s Ryan Day has a 2-6 record against top-5 ranked teams in the Associated Press poll.
The Nittany Lions have been looking for a signature win under Franklin since Penn State’s Big Ten title run in 2016, and Ohio State is trying to stay alive in the Big Ten race and keep their College Football Playoff dreams alive.
» READ MORE: James Franklin sees No. 3 Penn State’s matchup with Ohio State as just another game. His team, however, does not.
The stakes could not be higher for this matchup (noon, Fox29. But is this the year Penn State can end its seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes? Here’s how both teams stack up, and their standouts on both sides of the ball.
Similarly built offenses
Both teams boast a running back tandem. For Penn State, it’s “Lawn Boyz” Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, who combined are averaging 153.2 yards. For Ohio State, it’s Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, rushing for a combined 138.4 yards per game.
Each offense relies on its running game to set the tempo, though Penn State has had more success on the ground against conference foes (154 yards) than Ohio State has (148).
But the biggest difference between the offenses are at wide receiver. Known for its rich history in developing receivers, Ohio State has an excellent group led by senior Emeka Egbuka, who leads the team in receptions (34). However, all eyes will be on freshman Jeremiah Smith, who has lit the college football world ablaze with his speed. He leads the Buckeyes in receiving yards (575) and touchdown receptions (7) this season.
The weakest area of Penn State’s defense is the secondary, which has veterans Jaylen Reed, one of the nation’s best safeties, and Zakee Wheatley, but defensive backs A.J. Harris and Jalen Kimber are first-time starters and have allowed big plays downfield this season. Look for the Buckeyes to test the Lions’ secondary, which collectively has five interceptions (two from Reed) and allows 174.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 19th best in college football.
» READ MORE: Downingtown’s Will Howard, passed over by Penn State, ready to ‘prove them wrong’ with Ohio State
Howard vs. Allar? Or Howard vs. Pribula?
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, a West Chester native who starred at Downingtown West, didn’t mince his words about Penn State after beating Nebraska last weekend. “They didn’t think I was good enough, but I guess we’ll see next week if I was,” he told reporters after last week’s game.
Howard has 17 total touchdowns (13 passing, four rushing) and has completed 72% of his passes this season after spending the previous four with Kansas State. He’s a rhythm passer, a big-bodied athlete (6-foot-4, 235 pounds) who makes quick, decisive reads, getting his playmakers the ball in space. He’s run the Buckeyes’ offense efficiently and has just three interceptions this season.
For Penn State, its quarterback situation is uncertain after starter Drew Allar left last week’s game against Wisconsin with an apparent leg injury. Allar is a “game-time” decision, but his big arm and mobility inside the pocket have opened up Penn State’s offense this season. The Medina, Ohio native has played outstanding football over his last three, completing 71% of his passes with four touchdowns while averaging 258.6 passing yards. The hiring of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has proved pivotal for Allar’s development, and even in the offense’s lulls, they’ve been able to figure out their issues in the second half, outscoring opponents 131-30 after halftime.
But if Allar can’t go, backup Beau Pribula has the dual-threat ability to stress Ohio State’s stingy defense, which has the nation’s fourth-best scoring defense. Pribula had more rushing attempts (15) than pass attempts (10) prior to starting the second half against the Badgers last weekend. Though a small sample size, Pribula can run the Nittany Lions’ motion-heavy offense, completing 11-of-13 passes for 98 yards and one score at Wisconsin. But his legs will be incredibly valuable against an Ohio State pass rush that can, and has in the past against Penn State, wreak havoc.
Elite pass rushers
The biggest stars, however, are on each team’s defensive lines. Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter, the North Philly native and La Salle College grad, has four sacks this season and a pass rush win rate of 23.8%, according to Pro Football Focus. But not to be outdone is Ohio State’s J.T. Tuimoloau, who has 3½ sacks this season with a 19.6% pass rush win rate. As potential first-round picks in the 2025 NFL draft, Saturday’s game will be a resume-building one for both players.
» READ MORE: Penn State’s Drew Shelton blocked for Will Howard at Downingtown West. They’ll be on opposite sidelines Saturday.
Regarding each team’s offensive tackle situation, Penn State looks more favorable. The Nittany Lions are buoyed by Downingtown West standout Drew Shelton at left tackle, who hasn’t relinquished a sack in 203 pass-block reps. The Buckeyes lost starting left tackle Josh Simmons, a projected first-round pick, to an injury during their Oct. 12 matchup with Oregon and have struggled at times in passing situations since losing him on the left side.
Whichever team’s offensive line can minimize the other’s star pass rushers will likely have the edge.
Who needs this game more?
Psychologically, Penn State absolutely needs to win this game. It would put the Nittany Lions in the driver’s seat to make the Big Ten Championship game and prove that they can beat one of the perennial power teams in the Big Ten. A loss wouldn’t eliminate Penn State from the new 12-team playoff format, though, but a win could also prove to Nittany Lion fans and players that they can win upper-echelon games.
This is a must-win for Ohio State, both as Big Ten contenders and to make the CFP. The Buckeyes made the playoffs in 2022 but were one-and-done and have already lost once this season. At two losses, making the playoffs would require losses from other teams ranked ahead of them, including Penn State, Oregon, and a few others.