Our predictions for Penn State vs. SMU in Saturday’s College Football Playoff

The No. 6 seed Nittany Lions (11-2 overall) enter as 8.5-point favorites against the Mustangs at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.

How will SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings (right) fare against Abdul Carter and the Penn State defense?Read moreAssociated Press

by Avery Hill, Jeff Neiburg, and Devin Jackson

Published Dec. 21, 2024, 5:00 a.m. ET

Penn State is the favorite on paper, but a high-powered SMU offense will take the field at Beaver Stadium in the first College Football Playoff appearance for both programs on Saturday (noon, TNT/Max).

As of Friday, oddsmakers had the No. 6 seed Nittany Lions (11-2 overall) as 8.5-point favorites against the Mustangs, who, despite coming off a loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game, boast an 11-2 record in their first season in the conference. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee employs a quick-moving offense behind sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings, who spreads the ball around to multiple receivers.

It’s meant opposing defenses have to play the entire field with no No. 1 target. Defensively, SMU employs a highly effective pass rush fed by a quick, rotating corps of edge rushers.

But Penn State brings its own firepower on the edge, namely through Glenside native Abdul Carter, who wrapped up Associated Press All-America honors this week on a breakthrough season that included 60 tackles and 10 sacks.

SMU will have to account for Nittany Lions tight end Tyler Warren, also named to AP’s All-America list and who is widely regarded as the best tight end in the country.

“He’s a matchup problem,” Lashlee said. “If you play man, he’s definitely a matchup problem. If you play zone, he’s still a matchup problem probably because he’s so big. Whether you have one guy, two guys on him, [Penn State does] a really good job of moving him around. He plays a bunch of different places. …

“We hope that we can keep him from [touchdowns and explosive plays], but he’s special. There’s a reason he won the Mackey Award. He’s got a big-time NFL career ahead of him, so we’ve definitely got to be aware of where he is.”

Inquirer writers Jeff Neiburg, Avery Hill, and Devin Jackson, who have been following Penn State’s path to its first College Football Playoff all season, offer their predictions for Saturday.

Neiburg: The Beau Pribula packages are gone with the backup quarterback entering the portal. How will Penn State go on? Easy, by not needing the sometimes silly trickery of having two quarterbacks on the field. Expect a determined Drew Allar to lead an offense against an SMU defense that struggles to defend Penn State’s best weapon: Warren. On defense, Carter will be a game-wrecker. Too much has been made about the weather. It’s a football game. And while I don’t expect SMU to be scared of long sleeves and heaters on the sideline, the better football team wins.

Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 24

Jackson: Jennings should present the Nittany Lions with their stiffest challenge yet in containing his dual-threat skill set, but I think Penn State limits the explosiveness of the Mustangs offense and stifles running back Brashard Smith. Expect a big game from Nick Singleton, who has turned it up a gear over his last couple of games, including against Oregon, when he averaged 10.5 yards per carry. While all the attention will be on Warren in the passing game, SMU is most susceptible to big plays, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Allar hit a big play early. That said, this is a game Penn State likely will want to dominate in time of possession. I think the Nittany Lions get off to a fast start and control the game late to hold off SMU, with Carter and Co. getting to Jennings more than a few times.

Prediction: Penn State 27, SMU 17

Hill: Penn State’s defense is hungry after giving up 45 points to Oregon in the Big Ten championship. I think that will show up on Saturday. Still, SMU, which has scored 38.5 points per game, will battle to keep this game close until the end. Ultimately, the Nittany Lions will hold on and advance to the Fiesta Bowl, as the Mustangs have no answer for Warren.

Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 26