More than just hiring a new coach, Villanova’s next moves will test a theory on ideal roster building

Where does doing the work to keep redshirt freshman Matthew Hodge around rank on the scale of importance compared to finding the next portal piece? Is bringing in two four-star high school recruits and investing financial and sweat equity in them more valuable in the long run than a single mercenary, one-year transfer?

Can continuity still be king?

A search for the next men’s basketball coach is underway at Villanova after the school fired Kyle Neptune on Saturday morning. It is not hyperbolic to say the athletic program finds itself staring down the most important decision it has ever made. The Wildcats have not fared well in the new world. Is that all on Neptune? Or is the failure to keep up with the rest of the Big East a program-wide issue that calls into question everything Villanova thinks about how it can succeed in the Wild West?

The answer may not come into focus for a few years, but there will be one. Villanova may be hiring a new coach, but more than that, the program will test the theory on ideal roster construction and how it goes about doing it.

Villanova probably won’t lean toward Micah Shrewsberry’s approach of going young and trying to develop a team of high school recruits at Notre Dame. It also probably won’t want to be like Shaka Smart at Marquette and ignore the portal and dissuade players from signing with agents.

But what is the perfect balance, and how does Villanova best allocate its financial resources to fund a roster that can be competitive? There does not appear to be an immediate plan to change the approach of blending a combination of developing young players and using the transfer portal to fill holes. The next coach will be of that same mindset.

» READ MORE: Kyle Neptune was overwhelmed as Villanova’s head coach. The Wildcats need a dynamic leader.

Villanova has been open about this topic. Neptune and general manager Baker Dunleavy last year pointed to Tyler Perkins transferring from Penn after his freshman year and joining the Wildcats with three seasons of eligibility left as the type of player the Wildcats want to be taking in the portal more than the Wooga Poplars of the world (though they obviously have no qualms about taking a talent like Poplar in the right situation).

Filling out a roster via the portal with long-term development in mind is easier said than done, and there is plenty of competition for those types of coveted transfers. But the fact that Perkins has so far been the exception and not the rule at Villanova is a layered topic. Villanova entered last year’s portal and recruiting cycles facing some skepticism about how long Neptune would be leading the program. It impacted its ability to be a real player in the transfer market when it came to recruiting players with multiple years of eligibility left, according to sources. Having just one recruit in the high school class of 2025 — a legacy one at that — helps support that argument.

The immediate future is muddied, though. The Wildcats are losing their entire starting lineup to exhausted eligibility. Whoever gets the job will need to find at least three starters in the portal, maybe more, and it’s unclear how many of Villanova’s remaining players with eligibility will enter the portal. The new coach won’t immediately face the same type of long-term skepticism, but the proof has mostly been in the pudding that you can’t buy a new roster every year and expect to win. Take a look around the rosters of some of the top teams in the country and you’ll find transfers, but only a few of them are in their first years with their current teams.

It will be difficult for Villanova to compete at the highest levels of the Big East next season unless it continues to stray a bit from its desired portal path and takes on a few older guys to help right the ship. That’s not to say there needs to be some lean years ahead. Pat Kelsey turned Louisville around at the snap of a finger. Darian DeVries almost had West Virginia back in the NCAA Tournament after a nine-win season last year. Michigan had eight wins last year before Dusty May led the Wolverines to 24 and back to the tournament.

But Villanova’s long-term plan of being a program that keeps players in the system for multiple years hasn’t changed yet and probably won’t anytime soon.

» READ MORE: With Kyle Neptune out, who’s next to coach Villanova? Here are some candidates to watch.

All of this, too, is without mentioning the divvying of the pot of money, a process that will need to be evaluated and refined. Eric Dixon is a special player in the Villanova program, so he’s probably a bad case study, but would Villanova have been better off paying two players $500,000 instead of paying Dixon $1 million (a ballpark figure that is around what he was paid)? What about Poplar? His talent and athleticism were probably worth a few wins. But for the sake of this analysis, let’s say he made $500,000. What if Villanova paid two players $250,000 instead? What would that have looked like?

“If you don’t pay the right guys, you’ll be s— out of luck,” Nick Saban said on the College Gameday set in August.

He was talking about football, of course, but the point stands for basketball.

Villanova needs a new coach who can maximize the talent on the roster and have it execute end-of-game situations at a much higher level. It also needs to heed Saban’s advice. Having money is one thing. Using it wisely is another.