Why is Villanova an underdog vs. Houston? NCAA history has the answer

It’s not often Villanova is an underdog like they are for Saturday’s meeting with Houston, but it does happen. Vegas opened the Wildcats as 2-point ‘dogs shortly after it was determined that they would be playing fifth-seeded Houston, which has won six in a row and 12 of its last 13.

The Cougars also have covered their last six, usually pretty comfortably, and 11 of those last 13. They took out Arizona, the No. 1 seed in the South, on Thursday.

Famous Houston native and prolific sports bettor Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale had one question as he was studying for his next million-dollar wager. “Do Villanova fans travel well?” he asked.

» READ MORE: Villanova’s Jermaine Samuels passed a stern test against Michigan with flying colors | Mike Sielski

What is unusual, perhaps historic for us gambling nerds, is that Villanova is the first No. 2 seed to be the underdog to a No. 5 in a regional final. The sample size is small – four meetings in 37 years – but the results can be disconcerting for those on the Main Line.

A No. 5 has never lost to a No. 2 in the Elite 8. Seems like they struggle more with No. 12 seeds in the first round than second seeds with a berth to the Final Four at stake.

“The analytical models absolutely love Houston,” said Sam Garriock, trading manager for PointsBet. “KenPom has them as the No. 2 team in the country and while we don’t quite believe in them to that extent, they’ve been getting respect all season, as evidenced by closing just 2-point dogs against 1-seeded Arizona.”

» READ MORE: The Shot, the Spectrum, and the official who got it right: Christian Laettner’s moment, 30 years later

Here are the previous meetings in the Elite 8 between the Nos. 2-5 seeds, with special thanks to the college basketball page at SportsReference.com for its help with the point spreads:

As Garriock mentioned, Houston (32-5) is second in Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. Villanova (29-7) is 11th.

“Houston is the classic example of a team who is underrated,” Garriock continued. “They destroyed a schedule that is relatively weak, with a scoring margin that is better than their record suggests.”

» READ MORE: Villanova takes out Michigan, 63-55, to advance to the Elite Eight

Not surprisingly, “Mattress Mack” will place a wager on his hometown Cougars, who are trying to reach the Final Four for the second consecutive year. He’s a businessman, not a professional sports bettor and his wagers – usually well over a million dollars – are tied in with promotions for his furniture stores in Texas.

He hadn’t decided his bets as of Friday afternoon, but was gearing up for a ride to Louisiana, the closest jurisdiction he can make a legalized sports wager.

With the game being played in San Antonio, Villanova should expect a hostile environment, no matter how well their fans travel.

“I was a little bit surprised that Houston’s favored,” McIngvale said. “[The TBS broadcasters] said the crowd was all Houston on Thursday, and that the Arizona coach turned around and tried to [invigorate] his fans on, but the Houston fans were drowning them out. That’s understandable given they’re 200 miles from us. It’ll probably be the same thing [Saturday].”

6:09 p.m./TBS - 2-Villanova (+2) vs. 5-Houston (128)

South Region final at San Antonio

The last time Villanova was not favored was Feb. 22 when they were 2-point ‘dogs and lost at Connecticut, 71-69, for a push. They are 1-4 straight-up as underdogs, 1-3-1 against the spread. The pick: Houston laying 2.

8:39 p.m. approx./TBS - 2-Duke (4) vs. 4-Arkansas (146.5)

West Region Final at San Francisco

Arkansas is 219th in field goal shooting (43.4%), 328th in three-point accuracy (30.4%). Leading scorer JD Notae had 21 points on 29 shots in the win over Gonzaga. That kind of inefficiency won’t fly here. The pick: Duke -2, and under Arkansas team total of 71.5 points.

Thursday’s results

Went 3-0 with Villanova laying 5 to Michigan, Arkansas (+9.5) winning outright over Gonzaga, and Duke (+1) slipping past Texas Tech. Record for the tournament improved to 13-8 (61.9%).