Does Baylor need a signature win over Villanova to prove it’s a real contender? It wouldn’t hurt.
The Wildcats step up in class after two early tournament wins and need to deal with Baylor's three-point shooting and its ability to force turnovers.
Jay Wright looked out into the postgame Zoom news conference gathering and considered a question in which the reporter talked about Baylor not having reached a Final Four, and whether the Bears had to “beat the best to be the best” to be perceived by the public as a national championship contender.
One of those tests for Baylor comes Saturday at Butler’s Hinkle Fieldhouse in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis. Its South Region semifinal opponent is Villanova, winner of two of the last four championships, perhaps the type of challenge the questioner was referring to.
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“I hope we’re not the game that changes the public perception,” Wright said.
“The Baylor program is very, very well-respected no matter what they do from here. I think [head coach Scott Drew] knows that. We all know that in the basketball world. But I definitely get your question, because there’s a public perception that’s different.
“They beat us [last season] in a tournament game in Myrtle Beach. I thought we were pretty good and they were better that day. So I can’t really answer what the media perception is, but I think in the basketball world they’re very well-respected.”
The No. 1 seed Bears, who have reached the Sweet 16 four times since 2010 but have not made it to the Final Four, followed their 26-4 season of a year ago with a 24-2 record thus far in 2020-21, with a final ranking of No. 2 in the NET and No. 3 in the Associated Press poll.
Their season has included 18 consecutive victories to start the year, 14 straight weeks trailing only No. 1 Gonzaga in the national rankings, a consensus All-America in guard Jared Butler and some eye-popping numbers in the Division I statistical rankings.
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They rank in the top 10 in Division I in seven categories: 41.5% three-point shooting (first), plus-5.5 turnover margin (third), and averages of 83.8 points scored (fourth), 10.3 three-point baskets (seventh), 9.1 steals (tied for eighth), 17.5 turnovers forced (ninth) and 16.9 assists (10th).
“They’ve definitely grown as a team and they have a lot of older guys that have a lot of experience and in the tournament as well,” said forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, the Wildcats’ leading scorer and rebounder.
“Even last year was a unique time but I think they have a lot of experience and I think the experience is especially showing right now in the March Madness. I think they’re really tough, dynamic, physical, a physical team that really gets after it.”
Both teams impressed in winning their first two games, with a combined scoring margin of plus-70 points, but their game Saturday will be a heavyweight matchup. After suffering two defeats following the loss of Collin Gillespie for the season, the fifth-seeded Wildcats (18-6) have shown improvement in wins over Winthrop and North Texas.
“I think they’re getting comfortable with the personnel they have,” Drew said. “Great teams always adapt and Villanova’s a great team. They have a great coach. You knew they’d figure it out.
“Coach Wright has a great culture. They’re extremely disciplined. They don’t turn the ball over. They take great shots. They play the right way. They share the ball. Defensively, they’re rock solid. So you know you have to beat them, they’re not going to beat themselves.”
The Wildcats, who have 17 NCAA Tournament wins as the lower seed, second all-time only to Michigan State’s 18, will be tested in two areas — turnovers and three-point shooting at both ends of the court.
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Villanova has just 26 turnovers in the four games it has played without Gillespie, with its primary point guards, Justin Moore and Chris Arcidiacono, combining for only six. The only opponent that gave the Wildcats problems was St. John’s, which forced 17 and 15 turnovers in their two meetings.
The Bears led the nation in three-point shooting at 41.5% and have connected on 10 or more threes on 14 occasions. The Wildcats have struggled with three-point defense for much of the season, currently ranking 249th at 35.0%, and allowing 10 or more seven times, including a season-high 12 at Creighton.
As for their own three-point shooting, the Cats matched a season high with 15 last Sunday against North Texas and hit the 50% mark for only the third time this year.
Butler (16.9 points per game) and fellow guards MaCio Teague (16.1) and Davion Mitchell (14.1) are Baylor’s top three scorers, and each has knocked down at least 54 threes. Mitchell, one of the nation’s best defensive players, is averaging 17.2 points in his last 12 games.
Robinson-Earl averages 16.0 points and 8.3 rebounds for Villanova, but he has taken more of the offensive load in Gillespie’s absence in the postseason, averaging 22.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
“Guys with his size, athleticism and skill set, they don’t come around often,” Drew said. “At the same time, what impresses me the most is besides his ability to play inside and outside, how he lets the game comes to him. He doesn’t force a lot, he just seems to always make the fundamentally correct play.”