Which Big 5 team has more to prove in Thursday’s WBIT quarterfinal: Villanova or St. Joe’s?
This clash between two of the best women's teams in the Big 5 will determine who moves on to the first Final Four of the renamed Women's Basketball Invitation Tournament.
History of sorts will be made inside Villanova’s Finneran Pavilion on Thursday night when a pair of Big 5 women’s basketball programs face off for an opportunity to advance to the semifinals of the Women’s Basketball Invitation Tournament.
This is the inaugural season of the 32-team WBIT, which is owned by the NCAA. The creation of the tournament boosted the total number of NCAA-funded postseason berths to 100, equaling the men’s total (68 NCAA Tournament bids plus 32 NIT bids). Another prominent consolation postseason tournament, the WNIT, is owned by Triple Crown Sports.
» READ MORE: NCAA men’s basketball transfer portal already loaded and impacting Big 5 schools
It’s too close to determine which team will move on as both programs have been tough to beat — and in the case of the Hawks, downright dominant — for much of the season. No. 1-seeded Villanova (20-12) is 12-4 at the Finn this season, with impressive WBIT wins over VCU (75-60) and Virginia (73-55).
On the other side, the Hawks (28-5) revel in playing on the road as they’ll be enter the matchup with a 15-1 record away from Hagan Arena. St. Joe’s is coming back from the West Coast, where it pulled off a 63-61 upset of the No. 2-seeded Golden Bears.
What’s on paper from their body of work this season says a whole lot about what to expect on Thursday (7 p.m., ESPN+). Who will win? The numbers from this season tell quite the story.
Scoring prowess
Possession arrow ➡️ St. Joseph’s
Both of these teams score more than 65 points per game. However, the Hawks get their points from a three-headed monster of Laura Ziegler (14.6 ppg), MacKenzie Smith (12.8), and Talya Brugler (15.5), who terrorized the Atlantic 10 this season. Smith, the 5-foot-10 junior guard, is an effective inside-outside shooter who shot 42.7% (50-for-117) from three-point range this season.
On the other side, Villanova has a potent offense but one that starts and runs with senior guard Lucy Olsen. Olsen is averaging a career-high 23.6 points and is the third-leading scorer in the nation — but she’s also the only Villanova player who averages double figures.
While Olsen is the nucleus, the Wildcats were able to spread the floor and remain competitive against stronger competition. Still, St. Joe’s ability to score by committee could offer an advantage. It did earlier this year when the teams faced off in Big 5 play and the Hawks celebrated a 73-67 win over the Wildcats at Hagan Arena.
» READ MORE: St. Joe’s battles from behind to seize a massive victory over Big 5 rival Villanova
Defense, defense, defense
Possession arrow ➡️ Villanova
Two words: Christina Dalce. What Dalce might lack in points, she makes up for in being a beast on the boards. Dalce averages 9.7 rebounds (309 total) and finishes in double figures most nights. Make no mistake, the 6-2 junior forward can get buckets, too (8.4 ppg); she has a team-high 10 double-doubles this season. She also leads the Wildcats in blocks (72) with nearly half of the team’s total on the season (146).
Dalce is also just one of two players in the Big 5 to crack the NCAA’s top 50 in rebounds. The other? St. Joe’s Ziegler, who averages 9.4, and leads her team in blocks as well. The Hawks pride themselves on being tough defensively and they most certainly are, ranking among the top 10 in the A-10 in rebounds (ninth) and blocks (seventh).
However, the edge goes to the Wildcats here, mainly thanks to Dalce, given her size and propensity to be a physical presence in the lane.
» READ MORE: How Villanova’s Christina Dalce prepared — mentally and physically — for an expanded role this season
Chances to win it all
Possession arrow ➡️ St. Joseph’s
This one is extremely close. Statistically, one might not find two more evenly matched teams. So it comes down to which would have more redemption from winning the WBIT. That edge goes slightly to the Hawks. This St. Joe’s collective had just two losses deep into February (21-2) and still managed just a single vote in the Associated Press women’s top 25. The Hawks ran through both conference and nonconference opponents in the regular season but faltered when it mattered most — with a loss to Rhode Island in the A-10 quarterfinal.
Villanova does have the advantage in strength of schedule. The likes of either fellow No. 1 seed Penn State or No. 2 Mississippi State would be on a level of basketball the Wildcats are already used to. There were losses to Oregon State (Nov. 12) and Princeton (Dec. 11) that were questionable, but a win over No. 22 Marquette (Jan. 17) — which qualified for the NCAA Tournament — should nullify that.
Still, this Hawks collective was as dominant a team as coach Cindy Griffin had in her 23 years on the sidelines. To close out with a WBIT championship — and to do so by bypassing another team at the top of the Big 5 — just seems fitting.