Villanova is 2-5. What’s going on with the Wildcats?

Let’s get this out of the way with Villanova at 2-5 under a first-year head coach: Kyle Neptune didn’t cause this.

He just has to fix it.

We’ve already seen that merely continuing a championship culture won’t fix it. What’s going on with ‘Nova right now, even if nobody saw it coming, everyone can point to all sorts of factors in play. Let’s go through them, while also pointing out … No, Jay Wright didn’t leave the cupboard bare when he retired, didn’t get out because he knew this squad was about to free-fall. Quite the opposite. In deciding it was time to go, Wright just could not have known the cupboard would open and a couple of important pieces would fall to the floor.

Sports, at its core, is about applying pressure to an opponent, in all sorts of ways. In basketball, that pressure must be applied at both ends of the court. You can’t simply strategize that pressure into a game plan. You need talent … you need speed.

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Villanova has three core players who have proven themselves in all sorts of ways. Eric Dixon, Caleb Daniels, and Brandon Slater are holding up their end, with offensive efficiency ratings that stand up. (Daniels, for instance, has the highest KenPom.com offensive rating of his career.)

So what’s the problem? Those three are being asked to replace proven stars, while the players tasked with replacing these three as complementary players aren’t quite ready for such major roles.

The new players may have terrific careers. They just play like new players, meaning they make some smart plays but then maybe aren’t in the right position on the next play. Neptune wasn’t wrong to start games playing his veterans. It just isn’t working. That isn’t a shot at Chris Arcidiacono. I’m a Chris Arch proponent. His nine points, six assists, and zero turnovers didn’t cause Villanova to lose Sunday to an undermanned Oregon team. It almost salvaged a W. But can Villanova afford playing someone 73% of the minutes if he’s taking less than four shots a game?

The biggest factor right now: There is little elite about Villanova on the defensive side. The Wildcats don’t force turnovers or defend the three-point line particularly well over 40 minutes. This isn’t the kind of thing you can easily fix by giving promising freshmen more time. They’re more likely to be the ones who get confused on assignments.

Right now, it comes down to Villanova getting badly outshot by opponents at the three-point line. Relying so heavily on threes, while shooting 31.4% (241st in Division I) and giving up 37.9% (300th in D1) simply isn’t a winning formula.

When Portland more than doubles your three-point percentage, you’ve got issues. When Delaware State outshoots you, you’ve got issues, even if you win the game. Sure, ‘Nova missed open looks in that one. The Wildcats also allowed Delaware State (still winless in Division I play) to shoot a higher three-point percentage than in any other D1 game. It’s no longer possible to shrug that off as bad luck.

Villanova has worked best in recent glory years by using a switching man-to-man defense. Right now, the Wildcats don’t have the personnel to do this. When you’re not forcing turnovers, opponents can seek out mismatches. With this group, they’re finding them.

There is the big issue, right there. Losing Collin Gillespie is tough. But not having Jermaine Samuels right now may be bigger. In his veteran years, Samuels applied pressure at both ends, causing mismatches while cleaning up for teammates.

Not having Justin Moore right now obviously is massive. Last season, he was Villanova’s top defensive stopper, a future NBA player. He applies pressure at both ends. His return from Achilles surgery does not have a date attached.

Cam Whitmore was supposed to be the kind of player who could apply pressure, but thumb surgery has kept him out, and now the freshman will have to jump on a moving train. But his absence has been massive. Playing for USA Basketball, Whitmore showed he is the kind of explosive forward that opponents have to always account for, possession by possession.

You know all that. Neptune knows all that. Jordan Longino never hitting the ground fully healthy is another factor. One fewer player who is able to apply extreme pressure.

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Slow offensive starts have plagued Villanova. In five of their seven games, the Wildcats have scored four points or less in the first five minutes. That puts pressure on themselves.

What can be done about that? Maybe this is jumping the gun, but should Neptune consider starting Brendan Hausen? That’s not a knee-jerk reaction to Hausen making five of eight threes against Oregon. The man can shoot. That’s why Villanova recruited him. Right now, Villanova needs a shooter to relieve some pressure off the other guys. Dixon and Daniels are holding up their end from long range, but everyone else has struggled.

Does that solve everything? It does not, and may cause other problems, since Hausen will need help defensively. There are no easy answers to this puzzle. But maybe let Longino settle into a super-sub role. Keep getting Mark Armstrong more minutes since he can apply pressure with his speed. (I like what I’ve seen from Angelo Brizzi, but there are only so many minutes to go around.)

If Whitmore and Moore are back soon, this season still can be salvaged. Villanova still can be what you expected. If not, this has turned out to be a rebuilding year that few saw coming. There was a complete awareness within Villanova’s program that the nonconference schedule offered few breathers. Also, a chance to kick ‘Nova when it’s down — Big East teams will line up for that chance.

Is it possible to contemplate Villanova missing March Madness? KenPom.com says yes, predicting the Wildcats will finish 15-16. Those odds obviously will change if Whitmore and Moore return, but it gets late early when you’re putting together an NCAA resumé. (True for Temple, too. Doesn’t help the Owls that the Villanova W doesn’t even count for much right now.)

This ‘Nova team hasn’t quit on anything. Almost coming back to win at Michigan State and hanging with Iowa State suggests the Wildcats still have the same old “attitude.”

It just isn’t enough right now. It’s not a sign of panic to admit that.