Why Joe Lunardi says Villanova’s NCAA Tournament chances are a ‘50-50 shot’

The 2024-25 Villanova men’s basketball season started with a bit of a nosedive. The Wildcats lost three of their first five games, including a home loss vs. a Columbia team that scored 90 points.

They lost on the road at St. Joseph’s and on a neutral court vs. a down Virginia team whose coach retired a few weeks before the season started. By the end of November, Villanova was through a quarter of its regular-season schedule and its best win was its season opener vs. Lafayette. The boo birds had good reason to swarm.

But those birds have since migrated as the Wildcats have heated up. Villanova has wins over Cincinnati and Connecticut during a stretch of eight wins in 10 games. The Wildcats (11-6) are 4-2 in Big East play and have gotten themselves back in the NCAA Tournament conversation.

In a season that was looked at like tournament-or-bust for Kyle Neptune, tournament seems a lot more likely than it did. How likely? We talked with ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi to figure out the path back to the dance.

» READ MORE: Dan Hurley says Villanova is NCAA Tournament-bound. The Wildcats still have to prove it.

As of Monday morning, the Wildcats were 76th on Lunardi’s board, meaning they were eight spots out of the field of 68.

That position has moved a bit over the last week. After a come-from-behind win at Butler on New Year’s Day was followed up with a throttling of DePaul, the Wildcats were 83rd last Sunday. Then came the home win over UConn, and a leap to the “first four out” portion of the bracket projection.

A road game at St. John’s on Saturday offered Villanova a big chance at a needle-moving win, but a 12-point loss resulted in a slight drop on the big board.

The Wildcats are on the outside looking in. Seventeen regular-season games are in the past and just 14 remain.

You don’t need to look back too deep in the archives for a good comparison. Seton Hall was last year’s snub. The Pirates went 13-7 in the Big East and had a real NCAA Tournament resumé, but an abnormal number of bid stealers during conference tournament week left them out of the dance and in the NIT with Villanova and the other rejects.

The Big East doesn’t seem as strong this season, but Lunardi thinks that record is a good target for the Wildcats.

The conference being weaker “gives them more 50-50 games,” Lunardi said.

“If you’re a bubble team you look at that as an opportunity. It would be pretty hard to go 13-7, even in this Big East, and not make it.”

Villanova is 4-2 now, so 9-5 the rest of the way is the aim. KenPom predictive metrics have Villanova going 8-6 in the remaining 14, but two of those predicted losses — a home game against St. John’s and a road game at Georgetown — are close to 50-50 flips as far as the predictions go.

“I don’t think it’s undoable because they are playing better,” Lunardi said of winning nine more.

“A lot of bubble teams have a Columbia … as long as they don’t have multiples.”

» READ MORE: St. Joseph’s has ‘refined’ its game, starting at the top. The results were on display against Loyola Chicago.

Home wins over Seton Hall and DePaul, the two worst teams in the conference, mean there aren’t really any bad losses left on Villanova’s schedule.

There are opportunities for advancement, though, starting Tuesday night at Xavier, where the Wildcats will be slight underdogs trying to get their second Quad 1 win.

“It’s a free shot because they’re supposed to lose,” Lunardi said.

Looking for a Big East peer to compare yourself? Lunardi looked at Creighton, which was barely in his NCAA Tournament field as of Monday morning. The Wildcats lost before the holidays on the road at Creighton, so that return matchup at home on Feb. 1 will be one of the key games.

“If they could win one game for sure, for me, it’s that rematch because while head-to-head isn’t a factor officially, if they get swept and they’re both on the bubble, that’s bad,” Lunardi said.

The aforementioned home game vs. St. John’s on Feb. 12 is a big one, too. In a way, they all are. Can’t lose at Xavier on Tuesday and then come back home and lose to Providence on Friday night. Can’t get swept by Georgetown.

» READ MORE: Tyrese Maxey’s second-half shooting misses the mark

As of Monday, Lunardi said 28 of his 37 at-large spots were going to schools in three conferences: the Big Ten, the Big 12, and the SEC. Those numbers will come down, he said, because those teams are beating up on one another.

“There’s going to be a spot or two or three that in a month or six weeks don’t exist today,” he said.

Wildcats fans should be fans of Cincinnati the rest of the way, although that win over the Bearcats isn’t looking as good as it did on Dec. 3. They need to root for Maryland, so that one-point loss before Thanksgiving is a solid loss on a neutral court. And they need to “hold their nose,” Lunardi said, and root for St. Joe’s to have a good run in the Atlantic 10.

As for the basketball team itself, there’s a lot of work to do, but getting to the tournament for the first time since a Final Four run in 2022 is far from impossible.

It could go either way. Villanova is playing a lot better, but it’s not difficult to see six or more losses on the remaining schedule.

“They’re not going to win all the games they’re supposed to win, and they’re not going to lose all the games they’re supposed to lose,” Lunardi said. “But I think they’re closer than the numbers suggest.

“I think they have a 50-50 shot. They’re not far away, not like last year where it felt like they weren’t good enough.”

Not like in November, either. So much can change in so little time.