Analyzing Villanova’s NCAA Tournament chances with six games to go

Just six games separate Villanova from the Big East Tournament, but every game for the last two weeks has felt like a postseason game.

That won’t change for the rest of the season. That’s life on the NCAA Tournament bubble, where Villanova has been since a five-game losing streak dropped the Wildcats from a no-doubt tournament team to one with a lot of work to do to secure an at-large bid.

As of Monday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had Villanova at No. 74, six spots out of the NCAA Tournament field.

Six spots out with six games to play isn’t a great place to be, but three of Villanova’s games are against teams ahead of the Wildcats on Lunardi’s projected bubble. In a lot of ways, Villanova (14-11, 7-7 Big East) controls its own destiny.

Here’s a look at Villanova’s path to return to the NCAA Tournament after missing out last season.

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Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Very few paths to the NCAA Tournament exist if Villanova loses Tuesday night’s home game against Butler, a team in Lunardi’s field that the Wildcats should have beaten on the road on Jan. 27 but faltered late and fell in double overtime.

When we last spoke with Lunardi about Villanova’s chances, the target seemed to be 10 Big East wins coupled with at least one Big East tournament win.

Now, it seems like 11-9 is the target record for Villanova, meaning the Wildcats would need to win four of their last six.

For the sake of this exercise, we’ll put Butler in the win column.

That means Villanova would need three of five from this remaining schedule:

It’s doable. Very doable. Villanova already has defeated Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, and Creighton.

Knocking off UConn on Saturday night on the road could count for two wins, but have you seen the Huskies play recently? With ESPN’s College GameDay in Storrs, expect a really tough environment for Villanova to earn a victory.

The key games are Butler, Providence, and Seton Hall, three teams ahead of Villanova as of Monday morning in Lunardi’s field.

“Wins against the field is a category,” Lunardi said.

» READ MORE: Backs against the wall, Villanova is making opponents play its style. Reason for hope?

There’s another layer to this, too.

Villanova has a real chance to earn the Big East’s fifth spot and avoid playing on the opening night of the tournament. If the Wildcats were to finish there, they’d get a bye to the quarterfinals against the fourth seed.

That could work against Villanova if the Wildcats need a win or two in New York to improve their tournament resumé.

On the other hand, getting the fifth spot means Villanova probably went 4-2 or better in its final six, and it could line up the Wildcats for what could essentially be a play-in game vs. Seton Hall, which currently holds the fourth spot.

As of Monday morning, Seton Hall was Lunardi’s last team in the field after the Pirates beat St. John’s on Sunday night. The following five teams separated Villanova from Seton Hall: Providence, Utah, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, and Colorado.

Of those teams, only Wake Forest (at 26) ranked higher than Villanova (31) in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric (a ranking of what are essentially the best overall teams in college hoops).

It’s the 11 total losses, and three coming to lesser competition in the Big 5, that have the Wildcats behind other teams like Providence (56) and Utah (46), which are ranked significantly lower by KenPom metrics.

Asked to compare Villanova’s resumé with Utah’s, a team that has 10 losses, Lunardi pointed to Utah’s strength of record, which is about 15 spots higher than Villanova’s. Both teams have four wins against the field, but Utah has six losses to non-tournament teams, and Villanova has seven.

In other words, the margins are pretty tight this time of year.

» READ MORE: Despite injuries, Justin Moore is giving ‘as much as I can’ for Villanova as it makes an NCAA push

As for Villanova being rated 31st at KenPom and missing the tournament, it’s certainly not all that rare. Oklahoma entered Selection Sunday at the same spot in 2022 and went to the NIT.

Being good is relevant only when you win the games you’re supposed to win.

“I’m a results-based person,” Lunardi said. “But there are people in the room who are eye-test people. Villanova doesn’t pass the eye test most of the time. They just don’t look consistent enough.”

Lunardi’s forecasting system has an element that spits out chances by percentages. As of Monday morning, Villanova’s chances of dancing were 22%.

“It’s a classic NIT final four resumé,” Lunardi said. “Some really good and some really bad and mostly no trends strong enough in either direction.

“The one really good trend in the Bahamas, that was great. And it’s completely countered by the three Big 5 losses.”

Flip those things — lose to North Carolina, Texas Tech, and Memphis and beat Penn, St. Joseph’s, and Drexel — and this conversation isn’t even happening. The Wildcats would be on the NIT bubble.

Instead, they’re here, with everything still in front of them.