Justin Moore remains the big question mark when analyzing Villanova’s 2023-24 roster outlook

There are four games left in Villanova’s regular season, and the Wildcats are on track to miss the NCAA Tournament for this first time since 2012. As things stand, Villanova needs to run the table during the Big East Tournament next month at Madison Square Garden to avoid that fate.

How unlikely is that? TeamRankings, a sports analytics website, places Villanova’s odds of making the NCAA Tournament at 3%.

A new reality in the post-Jay Wright era? Or a one-year blip in Kyle Neptune’s first season? It’s impossible to know the answer to that question right now, but it’s a pretty good time to look at how next year is shaping up with this season likely to be over in just a few weeks.

Here’s a look at Villanova’s 2023-24 roster.

» READ MORE: Villanova salutes Jay Wright, who doesn’t miss coaching ‘at all’

In the age of the transfer portal, there are rarely definites when it comes to projecting future college basketball rosters, so let’s get these out of the way:

The college careers of Brandon Slater and Caleb Daniels will come to an end in March, as both graduate students are finishing up their fifth years playing college hoops.

You can also count on Cam Whitmore being gone. The freshman will be Villanova’s first one-and-done since Tim Thomas and will likely be picked in the lottery portion of this year’s NBA draft.

» READ MORE: Hard lessons for Cam Whitmore in what might be his lone season at Villanova

For the second consecutive season, the success of Villanova will likely be tied to Justin Moore, who missed the first 20 games this season while recovering from surgery on his right Achilles tendon.

Because of COVID-19, Moore has a fifth year of eligibility to use at Villanova or elsewhere.

He is Villanova’s best player, and will be the best player on next year’s team. The biggest questions are: Will he come back to play a fifth college season? Will he do that here? Or will he start his professional career?

When asked about it recently, Moore said he was solely focused on the games that Villanova had in the near term and would worry about next season’s decision at a later date. Sources close to the Villanova program indicate that Moore’s return seems like a 50-50 proposition at this point. A big factor in his returning could be what kind of NIL deal he can get.

» READ MORE: What should Villanova’s Justin Moore do? We asked NBA scouts.

Worth repeating: In the portal era, you can’t count on anything, but Villanova has some players coming back.

Besides Moore, Villanova, one of the more inexperienced teams in the Big East, could have seven other scholarship players returning next season.

That includes redshirt junior Eric Dixon, who is having his best season at Villanova (15.7 points, 6.7 rebounds per game). Sophomore Jordan Longino, who has been battling injuries to his knee and hamstring, is a big part of the puzzle next season. This was supposed to be his breakout season, but he probably has not played a single game at full strength.

The backcourt, with or without Moore, will feature current freshman Mark Armstrong and current senior Chris Arcidiacono, who, like Moore, has a fifth year of eligibility to play with. Sharpshooting freshman Brendan Hausen, who needs to improve his defense and shot-creating abilities, is also expected to be back.

Reserve forward Trey Patterson, a junior, could return, though if you’re looking at prime transfer candidates, he could find more playing time elsewhere.

Same with Nnanna Njoku, who is dealing with a serious foot injury and hasn’t suited up for a game since late fall. Villanova needs a backup center behind Dixon, who is undersized for the position as it is.

This is where the Neptune criticism reaches its fever pitch from detractors on message boards and comment threads. The Wildcats missed out on most of their top 2023 targets, especially in the months following Wright’s retirement.

Villanova has just one signed recruit in the 2023 class: Jordann Dumont, a 6-foot-8 wing from Canada who plays high school basketball in Tennessee. Dumont is not expected to be a major difference maker right away.

Villanova remains involved with four-star wing Kris Parker, of Quincy, Fla.

» READ MORE: ‘Always a Wildcat’: Jalen Brunson’s efforts remembered, revived and retired into the rafters at Villanova

Welcome, Villanova fans, to the transfer portal.

Yes, Wright used it to his advantage at times (Daniels, Eric Paschall), but it’s a new era, both on the Main Line and in college basketball in general.

Neptune hit the portal to grab four transfers who wound up in Fordham’s rotation during his lone season in the Bronx, and he’ll need to do that again.

More than 1,500 players entered the portal last year alone. And plenty of those players had the talent to be at Villanova. You don’t need to look very far for a few examples. How good would Warrington’s Andrew Funk, a Bucknell transfer playing at Penn State, have looked on Villanova’s team this year? His Penn State teammate, Camren Wynter, left Drexel to head to State College.

Portal players, of course, can be big difference makers. Xavier’s Souley Boum, probably the Big East player of the year, is at his third school, having joined the Musketeers after stints at UTEP and San Francisco.

Expect Villanova to go after three or more players in the portal, and expect a couple of those players to be difference makers.

In an ideal world for the Wildcats, Moore returns and portal additions are more than just depth spots. Here’s what the Perfect World rotation could look like:

That’s a team that still competes in the top half of the Big East.

Here’s what a Less-Than-Perfect World rotation — without Moore — could look like:

That team? It has a lot of question marks.

Moore’s decision will be the key, and will determine what the Wildcats (13-14) need to do to improve on where they are right now: sitting in late February staring at a March that ends early.