As Big East play begins, here’s a look at how Villanova could get back to the NCAA Tournament

The Villanova men’s basketball season continues Wednesday when the Wildcats open up Big East play in Omaha, Neb., against No. 12 Creighton.

It will mark Villanova’s first game since a Dec. 9 win over UCLA.

It was finals week in Radnor, and while the Wildcats were studying and taking exams, we got to studying, too.

After not making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade last season, how does Villanova, at 7-4 through its nonconference schedule, avoid the same fate in consecutive seasons?

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How many wins in the smashmouth Big East will it take for the Wildcats to return to the NCAA Tournament? Here’s a look at Villanova’s path to March Madness.

While there isn’t any real shoo-in matchup in the conference, not all Big East teams are created equally. There is a clear top tier that includes Connecticut, Marquette, and Creighton. Then there’s a second tier consisting of Villanova, Xavier, St. John’s, and Providence. Butler, picked 10th in the 11-team league in the preseason poll, is making a case to be in that tier, too. For now, let’s slot the Bulldogs there and leave the bottom tier as Georgetown, Seton Hall, and DePaul.

Big East teams play 20 games, one home and one away, against the other 10 teams in the league.

If you were running simulations for the rest of the season, a Villanova return to the field of 68 would likely involve the Wildcats winning five of six games against that bottom tier. The Wildcats will almost undoubtedly be favored in all six of those games.

Against its peers in the second tier, Villanova will probably be in eight coin-flip matchups. Sure, the Wildcats will be favored in a few home games facing those schools, and maybe a slight favorite on the road in one or two. But going 5-3 would be a big win. It would, in combination with five wins vs. the bottom tier, leave the Wildcats with 10 victories before factoring in six games against the top of the conference.

Unless Villanova sweeps its 14 games against the second and third tiers — feel free to laugh here — very few paths to the NCAA Tournament exist without earning at least a win or two against the elite tier.

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In our hypothetical scenario in which Villanova wins 10 games combined vs. Tiers 2 and 3, the Wildcats cannot afford to go 0-6 vs. UConn, Marquette, and Creighton.

It would leave them at 17-14 and likely land the Wildcats back in the NIT for the second consecutive season.

In the unlikely scenario in which the Wildcats win all 14 of their Tier 2 and 3 games, they’d be at 21 wins and could, in fact, lose all six to UConn, Marquette, and Creighton and reach the NCAA Tournament.

So, what’s the sweet spot here? How many Big East wins will it take?

(Note: All of this is moot if Villanova runs the table and wins the Big East Tournament in March. For the sake of playing along, pretend that doesn’t happen.)

Get ready for a road trip ... NIT style. The Wildcats would likely find themselves in another NIT road game with this record. Unless, of course, five of their 10 conference wins come against the top tier. Villanova would have around nine or 10 KenPom top-50 wins at that point, and its bubble resumé might not look all that bad.

But let’s stay closer to reality here.

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This will make for a sweaty Selection Sunday. Once again, it depends on the makeup of the 11 wins. But in the realm of the most likeliest versions of 11-9 in the conference, 11 wins is interesting. It’s probably enough to get in the tournament, but it would depend what the rest of the bubble field looks like.

Last season, Rutgers was left out with a 19-14 overall record and a 10-10 Big Ten result. Oklahoma State went 0-9 against the elite of the Big 12 and its 8-10 conference record left the Cowboys on the outside. Same with North Carolina, which won 20 games and went 11-9 in the ACC. Then there was Clemson, which went 23-10 overall and 14-6 in a weak ACC and didn’t hear its name called.

Breathe easy.

Few scenarios exist in which 12-8 in the Big East — combined with Villanova’s nonconference wins over North Carolina, Memphis, and Texas Tech — wouldn’t be enough to get an at-large selection. Even with bad losses to Penn and Drexel. (The St. Joseph’s loss isn’t looking all that bad these days.)

Welcome back to the Dance, Wildcats fans. A 13-7 run in one of the toughest conferences in Division I would more than seal the deal.

Villanova starts with a Tier 1 matchup at Creighton on Wednesday before heading to Chicago for a game against a two-win DePaul team. A 2-0 start heading into a holiday break would do wonders in helping the season-long math, though 1-1 is more likely, and 0-2 is, well, not ideal.

Trying to predict these things is an impossible task. Who would’ve thought three of Villanova’s four losses through 11 games would be against its Big 5 foes?

The games always do the talking.

Happy Big East season to all who celebrate.