The next six games will define this Villanova basketball season, and probably Kyle Neptune’s future

There is a reason for the robotic way coaches put blinders on. Like the horse in a race, looking sideways and at the rear is the endeavor of the easily distracted. Villanova men’s basketball coach Kyle Neptune often flips questions about the past into a query of his own: “What does that do for us?”

It is, in a way, the trump card. Never mind the past sometimes explaining the future. It is a useless exercise in and around pretty much any locker room. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, who has the ear of Neptune’s predecessor, Jay Wright, takes a similar “boring” approach.

All of that is to say you’re rarely going to hear Neptune publicly analyze segments of seasons. That’s for us folks who aren’t tied to every Villanova game being “our Super Bowl,” as Neptune likes to say, who have no power to help or prevent Villanova from being the “best team we can be at the end of the season,” the Neptune mantra drilled into his head from years working under Wright.

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Yes, the next game is the most important game because it’s the next game, and, yes, basketball seasons are defined by a series of individual games. But there are segments you can point to to glean information. Last year’s miss of the NCAA Tournament — the second consecutive under Neptune — happened because of two defining stretches: an 0-for-3 run in the Big 5 and a five-game Big East losing streak to close the month of January. Those runs nullified a Battle 4 Atlantis trophy and decreased the margin of error during the final stretch run.

This year’s 7-4 nonconference performance looked a little different from last season’s. It did feature a few disappointments (St. Joseph’s, Columbia) and included only one really strong win (Cincinnati). But similarly to last year, a stretch of games relatively early in the 20-game Big East schedule offers one of those season-defining segments.

The Wildcats were gifted the Big East’s worst team, Seton Hall, at home to start conference play. Now, at 8-4, the fun begins, starting with a trip to Omaha for a Saturday afternoon game against Creighton (FS1, 4 p.m.) that starts a run of six games, four of them on the road, that includes five against teams that, as of Thursday morning, were rated in the top 75, according to KenPom metrics.

Here’s what the next six games look like, with a little bit of analysis sprinkled in (KenPom ratings in parentheses ... Villanova was rated 48th as of Thursday morning):

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KenPom numbers are predictive metrics. They’re usually pretty close to how sportsbooks set lines, too.

All six of those games are predicted to be decided by single-digits, and four of them by just one possession, but the Wildcats are predicted to lose five of the six. That result would probably be a death knell to Villanova’s tournament hopes, as coming out of the stretch at 9-9 would make the margin of error so thin that a tournament appearance would probably defy calculations.

Three wins is probably a solid result, especially if one of the wins is at. UConn or St. John’s. Four wins, with the two losses coming to those two squads, is probably fine, too, though easier said than done.

The Wildcats did themselves no favors during a pretty easy nonconference slate. If the Columbia loss were a win, and one of the losses to St. Joseph’s or Virginia flipped to the win column, this might be a much different conversation at 9-2.

But Villanova is where it is, which is way outside of the NCAA Tournament conversation. As of Thursday morning, ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi had Villanova 90th overall on his seeding list (up from a low of 120th a month ago). That’s 22 spots outside the field of 68. What’s hurting the Wildcats? Their strength of record (104th) and their wins above bubble (116th) numbers. Six of their eight wins are Quad 4 victories, according to the NCAA’s NET rankings. They have one Quad 1 win (Cincinnati).

That’s what makes these next six so critical. Four of them are Quad 1 opportunities. Another, Saturday’s game at Creighton, could be a Quad 1 game when it’s time to examine the resumés in March if the Bluejays improve.

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There is, obviously, more at play here than just how this Villanova season ends. The Wildcats have won five consecutive games and six of seven. They are playing much better basketball.

Neptune spent Wednesday night in Fort Myers, Fla., watching 2025 recruit Dante Allen, who plays for Montverde Academy, score 30 points in a win at a showcase event against Archbishop Carroll. It’s hard to say for sure, though, whether Neptune will have the chance to coach Allen in college.

Incoming athletic director Eric Roedl didn’t say anything silly when it came to the future of the men’s basketball program on the day he was formally introduced. He did, however stress the importance of winning. Three seasons without a trip to the NCAA Tournament would make anyone question the direction of the program and whether the right regime were in place to support winning. Roedl, who is the deputy AD at Oregon, starts after the Ducks finish their College Football Playoff run.

By then, a revealing set of Villanova games may be in the past, and athletic directors don’t wear blinders.