5 thoughts on Villanova as the Wildcats suffer through a rare long losing streak

It was 2011 the last time Villanova lost at least five games in a row, and you’d have to go back to 2008 for the last time five straight Wildcats losses occurred during the regular season (two of the 2011 losses were postseason games).

It’s been a long time, certainly, as far as basketball years go, and hoops fans on the Main Line were spoiled by Jay Wright’s run of success. But it’s worth pointing out that Wright was the coach during those previous two five-game losing streaks because no one is immune to it.

Kyle Neptune is learning that quickly.

His Villanova team is at its breaking point. The Wildcats are 11-10 overall and 4-6 in Big East play after falling, 85-80, Tuesday night to Marquette at Finneran Pavilion, where soft boos greeted Wright’s successor when his name was announced during the pregame introductions. They’re on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season.

Here are some thoughts on Villanova ahead of a critical home game Sunday against Providence at the Wells Fargo Center (6 p.m., FS1):

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There was plenty of chatter that Neptune was the wrong guy for the job even during his first season last year, which was unfortunate, and probably unfair, because not even Wright would have guided that team to the NCAA Tournament.

The chatter quieted a bit after Villanova ran through the Bahamas in November and beat the likes of No. 3 North Carolina and No. 15 Texas Tech, but the Wildcats returned to Philadelphia and lost consecutive games to St. Joseph’s and Drexel (losses that have Villanova outside the NCAA Tournament bracket right now), and then went on the road and lost at Kansas State. The “fire Neptune” crowd was back.

They’re as loud as ever right now. So much so that at least one fan even wore those words on a shirt at Finneran Pavilion on Tuesday night.

It’s unclear what Villanova would do with its head coach if the Wildcats do indeed miss out on another NCAA Tournament. It’s impossible to know a coach’s potential this soon, especially given that Neptune hasn’t gone through a full recruiting cycle yet — the 2023 class was always going to be an uphill cbattle after Wright surprised the world and retired in April 2022.

But this is a new world, as Inquirer columnist Mike Sielski explained after the game Tuesday night. Donor support always influenced coaching moves in college sports, but name, image, and likeness deals have created a new bucket. Donors are putting money into a bucket that directly impacts the quality of players the Wildcats can get and retain via recruiting and the transfer portal. People likely won’t contribute to what they believe is a sinking ship.

That alone might do Neptune in, never mind the other factors — like some questionable in-game decision-making, player regression, inconsistent results, and going 0-3 in the Big 5.

» READ MORE: Slumping Villanova is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Here’s how the Wildcats can get back to the dance.

The easiest thing to do in sports is to blame the coach for everything that goes wrong with a team.

Neptune didn’t miss 12 layups during Tuesday night’s loss. The players did that. Neptune didn’t miss all those open threes during what TJ Bamba called an “embarrassing” loss to St. John’s last week at Madison Square Garden. The players did that.

Neptune didn’t tell Tyler Kolek to have a heat check and pour in a career-high 32 points for Marquette. The other team’s best player, the reigning Big East player of the year, stepped up. Neptune’s guys didn’t.

Why didn’t Villanova foul at the end of the Butler game Saturday when it had a foul to give? There was no help defense on the drive because a foul was supposed to be committed and wasn’t.

Yes, coaching is a factor in a lot of things that have gone wrong for Villanova, but the players are being paid and aren’t absolved from criticism.

While the coaching needs to be better, the playing does, too.

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Moore, Villanova’s top guard, isn’t playing like that descriptor. He hasn’t been anywhere near the same player since he tore his Achilles in a regional final win over Houston in 2022, an injury that caused him to miss the first 20 games of last season. He missed five games in December and January after spraining his knee.

It’s easy to see that he’s not close to 100 percent right now. You could see it down the stretch in the Butler loss when Moore had little lift on his jump shots. He had a clear limp to his gait outside the Wildcats’ locker room following the loss at St. John’s last week.

Moore has scored in double figures just once since returning from the knee injury. It’s harder for Villanova to win games with this version of Moore.

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Maybe Marquette coach Shaka Smart was just being generous Tuesday night when he complimented Neptune and Villanova, but he was being truthful when he pointed to the Wildcats’ recent schedule.

Here’s the KenPom rating, as of Friday morning, of the opponents during the five-game skid: Marquette (twice, 14); Connecticut (3); St. John’s (36); Butler (54).

Overall, Villanova had on Friday morning the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation to date, according to KenPom.

Villanova’s next five games look like this: Providence (48); Xavier (39); Seton Hall (57); Georgetown (174); Butler (54).

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ESPN’s Joe Lunardi said earlier this week that a 10-10 record in the Big East would put Villanova “right there” in its pursuit of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. One win at the Big East tournament would be helpful, too.

That means Villanova would have to go 6-4 over its final 10 games.

Right now, KenPom’s predictive metrics have Villanova winning home games against Providence, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Butler, and then winning a road game at Georgetown. That’s only five wins, which means the Wildcats would need a road win at Seton Hall, Providence, or Xavier to make up the difference or win their home game with Creighton in the regular-season finale.

It’s not impossible to find six or seven wins on Villanova’s remaining schedule. Even eight. It’s just getting harder to believe it actually will happen.