Play-in game? Villanova and Seton Hall seemingly playing for a spot in March Madness on Wednesday

The NCAA Tournament begins a little early this year for Villanova fans, starting Wednesday night in Newark, where the Wildcats will try to make it seven wins in their last nine games when they take on Seton Hall.

Hyperbole? Hardly.

Villanova (17-12, 10-8 Big East) has turned its season around over the last few weeks, and the Wildcats’ win Saturday at Providence cemented their spot in many NCAA Tournament projections as they hit the final week of the regular season. They’re still on the bubble, and so is Seton Hall, but each team’s place on the bubble shows the stakes of this one.

ESPN’s resident bracketologist, Delaware County’s Joe Lunardi, had Villanova as the final team with a bye — avoiding a play-in game — as of Tuesday morning, with Seton Hall one spot back, the Pirates shipping off to Dayton, Ohio. Ryan Hammer, a college hoops analytics specialist, also had Villanova avoiding Dayton, in the dance comfortably as a No. 10 seed in the Midwest Regional, with Seton Hall in the same spot Lunardi had the Pirates.

BracketMatrix, which analyzes 104 bracket projections, showed Villanova in 78 brackets (75%), with an average seeding of 10.64. Seton Hall, meanwhile, was in 84 brackets and had a seed average of 10.86.

You get the point. For each team, the Quadrant 1 win would ease the Selection Sunday pressure ahead of next week’s Big East Tournament.

» READ MORE: Villanova silences Providence, moves a step closer to the NCAA Tournament field

While Villanova and Seton Hall are in nearly identical positions as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament bubble, they are not very similar when it comes to other metrics.

The Wildcats entered Tuesday’s action at No. 26 in the NCAA’s NET ranking, while Seton Hall was 68th. Villanova was 24th over at KenPom, while Seton Hall was 60th. Torvik’s power rating, which measures each team’s chance of beating the average Division I team, had Villanova at No. 25 and Seton Hall 53rd.

So, what gives?

Seton Hall (18-11, 11-7) has key wins over Connecticut and Marquette, and has zero losses outside the KenPom top 100. Villanova, meanwhile, has wins over North Carolina and Creighton, but has three bad losses, all coming during a disastrous run against Big 5 teams.

Villanova entered its last three games seemingly needing to win two vs. Providence, Seton Hall, and Creighton. The Wildcats checked the first box Saturday and moved into fifth place in the Big East, a nice spot to be, as it would give Villanova a bye to the conference quarterfinals next Thursday.

Beating Seton Hall would move Villanova ahead of the Pirates and into fourth place, setting up a potential rematch in the 4-5 game next week.

But the two teams have very different finales. Villanova hosts 10th-ranked Creighton on Saturday at the Wells Fargo Center (2:30 p.m., Fox), while Seton Hall closes with a DePaul team that doesn’t have a Big East win.

Sitting one game behind Villanova is St. John’s, which beat Villanova twice and owns the tiebreaker over the Wildcats. The Red Storm close with DePaul and Georgetown, likely two wins.

Losing Wednesday night almost guarantees that Villanova finishes sixth or worse in the Big East, which would mean having to play in the opening round of the conference tournament Wednesday night, where a win would do nothing to the tournament resumé and a loss would be crushing.

What Villanova has going for it that Seton Hall does not is an opportunity to bounce back after a potential defeat. Creighton offers a resumé-boosting opportunity Saturday, a luxury Seton Hall doesn’t have with DePaul.

» READ MORE: In a blowout loss at UConn, Villanova gets an up-close look at the new class of the Big East

Villanova’s run of six wins in eight games includes an 80-54 thumping of Seton Hall on Feb. 11 at the Wells Fargo Center.

A lot went right for Villanova that day. Brendan Hausen poured in five threes, Eric Dixon scored 18 points on 8-for-13 shooting, TJ Bamba needed just seven shots to score 14 points, Mark Armstrong scored 12 and dished out five assists, and Justin Moore’s defense helped shut down Seton Hall’s best player, Kadary Richmond.

Villanova’s defense has greatly improved during this recent run. KenPom had Villanova 13th in the adjusted defensive efficiency metric as of Tuesday morning.

Moore, who was still working his way back to full strength after a knee injury when the teams last met, has looked like a much different player over the last five games.

A lot is trending right for Villanova, which, combined with the previous result, makes the Wildcats the team you’d probably rather be Wednesday night.

But it’s a coin-flip type of game, like most NCAA Tournament games tend to be.

Happy March.