Can Villanova make another deep NCAA Tournament run? The win over Providence showed hints. | Mike Jensen
This 2020-21 group on the Main Line isn’t going away without taking a hit, whatever the ranking.
Now that they’re back playing basketball, you look at the Villanova Wildcats for certain stretches and you can’t help wondering … that’s the third-ranked team in the country?
Gritty, gutty, smart, etc. Sure, all that. But third-ranked?
Yeah, maybe.
You wouldn’t question such a ranking during the second half Saturday as Villanova had its way with Providence, a 71-56 final score at Finneran Pavilion offering few clues of hills climbed to get there.
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The halftime score — Providence 27-24 — offered a different window, especially when you note that it was 27-21 after two Friars free throws with 4.3 seconds left, before Collin Gillespie’s three-pointer finished off a Kris Jenkins-for-the-win play in even less time.
Let’s go big picture here. Is Villanova capable of another deep March run? (Assuming we get to March … or it’s not a May Madness run.) Let’s start with these basic facts. Villanova came into this game rated fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. Gillespie and company were committing the fewest turnovers in the country. Final Four-type statistics.
Now factor in, Villanova was 45th in defensive efficiency. Is that good enough? Are they good enough? Saturday may have been a significant step toward answering that.
Villanova is different to look at than to play. A team that is 349th in Division I adjusted tempo means you better take advantage of all your opportunities against them or it’s not going to go well for you.
That was Providence in a nutshell Saturday. The Friars did their thing defensively in the first half, and the Wildcats chipped in by missing most of the better looks they had. Seven first-half turnovers wasn’t what Jay Wright’s team usually does.
Providence couldn’t take advantage. I spent the first 20 minutes charting plus and minus Villanova difference-making defensive plays. I ended up with nine plus marks and four minus marks. That ratio meant there was little surprise that Villanova took over after halftime once some offensive rhythm was located.
The plus defensive plays came from the opening possession. Caleb Daniels got a hand on an entry pass. Same possession, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl deflected a pass and grabbed the ball. Soon, Jermaine Samuels got into a passing lane. Robinson-Earl took a charge. By the time Daniels took an elbow to his face, Villanova had seven plus defensive plays while only leading, 11-9.
It’s almost impossible to not compare a team like this to past Villanova title teams. This group has a markedly worse defensive field-goal percentage than the 2016 team. But a better turnover percentage, and slightly slower overall tempo.
Let’s argue that if somebody, anybody, on this current team heats up for an extended time in a game, this becomes a very difficult team to beat, since it rarely beats itself. Still, it all might come down to defense. Wright talked about how that had been the focus of the last week, getting timing down defensively, that it’s almost harder to get that timing down than getting the offense down.
“Offensively, one guy can get it going,” Wright said. “Defensively, every time one guy breaks down, it breaks down the entire defense.”
Looking at this defense, it’s a bit different than say 2016, with different pressure points.
“We have basic concepts offensively and defensively, but our defense is tailored to the personnel we have,” Wright said. “I think Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is one of the best defensive players in the country. He can guard any position and then helps everybody else. Justin Moore is the same kind of guy, believe it or not. Justin Moore can actually guard in the post. Our other teams could do that, but not as well as this team. But our other teams were better offensively.”
Let’s argue those other teams also could create more offense out of defense. Think Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges in passing lanes.
“We have a chance to be one of our best defensive teams,” Wright said. “The season’s been all over the place so it’s hard to tell. Are we the team that just gave up 58 percent against Seton Hall or are we this team? Somewhere in the middle … we don’t have the speed and the quickness, but we do have good mobility and good size. It is different.”
A good step, Wright reiterated.
“We can’t evaluate ourselves on where we would normally be in the season,” Villanova’s coach said. “We have to evaluate ourselves based on the challenges that we have at this time.”
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A 27-day COVID pause changes every equation. Still if this season is to get to the finish line, there’s no grading on a curve.
“We’ve just got to keep taking steps,” Wright said. “Do we have enough time to be a really good team by the end?”
Maybe, if you just look at the play that got Villanova to plus-9 on defensive difference-makers. Just over two minutes before halftime, Providence was up seven points and it looked like the Friars were about to go up nine after a nice-looking screen and roll, until Gillespie rotated over and got in the way of Providence big man Nate Watson.
Giving up 7 inches and 70 pounds, Gillespie took a charge in the chest, then he scored himself on Villanova’s next two possessions. No miracle plays, just reinforcement that this 2020-21 group on the Main Line isn’t going away without taking a hit, whatever the ranking.