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Villanova still has a chance to dance in March despite an inconsistent season. Here’s how.

The No. 6 Wildcats open against a three-win DePaul team. Should they win, it'll be No. 3 seed Marquette to largely determine Villanova’s NCAA tournament fate.

Villanova senior Justin Moore and the Wildcats will need a dominant showing in this week's Big East tournament to have a realistic shot of a March bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Villanova senior Justin Moore and the Wildcats will need a dominant showing in this week's Big East tournament to have a realistic shot of a March bid to the NCAA Tournament.Read moreCharles Fox / Staff Photographer

A defensive renaissance put Villanova on the cusp of earning an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. A slow-shooting night and a disastrous start stopped the Wildcats from punching that possible ticket.

Now, the Wildcats head to New York City for the Big East tournament needing two wins to feel good about their chances. The second team in the way? It would be the same one that sparked that defensive revival.

After Villanova’s loss to Creighton and Providence’s loss to UConn, the Wildcats (17-14, 10-10) received the No. 6 seed in the Big East tournament. They’ll open against No. 11 DePaul (3-28, 0-20) on Wednesday (9 p.m., FS1) at Madison Square Garden.

If they win, they’ll face No. 3 Marquette (23-8, 14-6) on Thursday (9:30 p.m., FS1). No other team scored more than 85 points against Villanova in regulation this season.

The Golden Eagles did it twice. Should Villanova bypass DePaul, it’ll again be Marquette that will determine the Wildcats’ NCAA tournament fate.

Recapping the road

If you’re someone who waits until March to watch college basketball, here’s how Villanova got here.

The Wildcats loaded up in the transfer portal and started the season 7-4, anchored by wins in November’s Battle 4 Atlantis tournament against Texas Tech, No. 14 North Carolina, and Memphis. However, struggles against the other Philadelphia teams largely offset those wins. The Wildcats lost to Penn, St. Joe’s, and Drexel, three bad losses that are big blemishes on Villanova’s tournament resume.

Villanova started Big East play well, including a win at then-No. 12 Creighton, but lost five consecutive games in January, its longest losing streak since 2011. The Wildcats needed a strong February and got one, going 5-2, but lost consecutive “win-and-in” opportunities last week against Seton Hall and No. 10 Creighton.

Most bracket predictions have Villanova as barely in or just out, meaning the Wildcats have work to do in New York to be confident they’ll be selected for the NCAA tournament. Beating Marquette would likely be enough. Anything less and the Wildcats will surely be back in the NIT.

» READ MORE: Villanova has been walking a wire for a while and can’t afford to fall now | Mike Sielski

Villanova’s path

Let’s start by saying that none of this matters if Villanova can’t beat DePaul on Wednesday. But should they,Marquette is significantly tougher.

The Golden Eagles, when healthy, are one of the best teams in the country. They beat Villanova twice during the Wildcats’ five-game losing streak, scoring 87 points against them in Milwaukee and 85 points on the Main Line.

However, the health of Marquette’s roster is a question mark. Star guard Tyler Kolek, an all-Big East first-team selection who leads the country in assists, has missed the last three games with an oblique injury. Marquette has said he’ll be reevaluated before the Big East tournament. The Golden Eagles are still dangerous without him, but they’re a much different team.

Villanova’s defense was abysmal in the first matchup in Milwaukee, losing 87-74. Marquette shot 59% from the field, and 60 of its 87 points came in the paint. It was the worst defensive performance of the season and coach Kyle Neptune knew it, saying postgame, “We just could not get stops throughout the game. No other explanation.”

Two weeks later, Villanova was better near the rim, but still brutal defensively. The Golden Eagles started on a 20-4 run, shot 50% from the field and 45.5% from three, and won, 85-80, behind 32 points from Kolek. Solid scoring and a 31-10 run from Villanova made it competitive, but the Wildcats couldn’t get stops when it mattered.

Villanova’s defense has significantly improved since then. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 59.6 points in the last 10 games, giving up more than 70 points just once, to then-No. 1 UConn. There’s been some offensive struggles, but the defense has kept them in games.

However, Marquette will be its biggest test. Villanova’s season depends on it.

» READ MORE: Villanova signee Matthew Hodge will try to finish his high school career with a championship

Tale of the tape

Three other Big East teams are in a similar position to Villanova. No. 4 Seton Hall, No. 5 St. John’s, and No. 7 Providence all need to advance in the conference tournament to feel good about their NCAA chances.

Because of that (and action elsewhere on the bubble), beating Marquette won’t guarantee anything. With a win on Thursday, Villanova would play either No. 2 Creighton, No. 7 Providence, or No. 10 Georgetown on Friday (8 p.m., FS1). Winning Thursday makes a bid probable, but a Friday win would be enough.