Villanova’s dominant defense is key for future success in the Big East

On, Dec. 8, the mood around Villanova was grim. The Wildcats had lost three straight. Challenging matchups against UCLA and Creighton loomed. To make matters worse, star guard Justin Moore left the Kansas State loss with an injury and sported a massive brace on his right knee.

Less than three weeks later, the perception has changed. Even without Moore, Villanova (9-4) has reeled off three straight wins, including impressive Big East wins on the road at Creighton and DePaul. After crashing out of the AP Poll during the losing streak, the Wildcats received six votes in Monday’s edition.

Life is good on the Main Line. The Wildcats have a winnable three-game homestand coming up, but tougher games are ahead. Here are two things the Wildcats need to keep doing and a third they need to change to keep the good times rolling.

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Villanova hasn’t ended the season with a better-ranked defense than its offense since 2014. Don’t look now but that could change.

The Wildcats sport the No. 34 offense and No. 17 defense in the nation, according to KenPom (both measuring adjusted efficiency). The offense hasn’t fully clicked yet (more on that later), but the defense has been primarily responsible for several wins, including the upset at Creighton.

Looking at the stats, Villanova’s reliance on defense is much clearer than KenPom analytics show. In Villanova’s nine wins, opponents have shot 35.7% (185 of 518) from the field. In four losses, opponents have shot 51.5% (106 of 206). It’s not because of outliers, either. Drexel, Kansas State, Penn, and St. Joseph’s all shot better than 49% from the field in their victories, while the highest shooting percentage Villanova has allowed in a win is North Carolina’s 43.1%.

Coach Kyle Neptune has made it clear that he wants a defense-first team, and to this point, he has it. If the Wildcats can continue their high-level defense from the first 13 games, they just might be legitimate Big East contenders.

Villanova’s pre-Christmas road trip produced not only two wins but three of the best offensive halves of its season. After a sluggish start, Villanova cut through a very good Creighton defense in the second half, then obliterated a very bad DePaul team for 40 minutes.

In both wins, Villanova displayed an offensive synergy it had lacked all season in games not played in the Bahamas. The Wildcats consistently attacked the basket against Creighton, outscoring the Bluejays in the paint, then built on that to beat DePaul. Villanova had 18 assists against the Blue Demons, its best effort since having 19 against American in the season opener.

Both opponents were relatively good matchups for Villanova, as the Wildcats could counteract Creighton’s size by spreading the floor and DePaul is simply less talented. Still, there’s reason to believe that offensive success can translate as conference play continues.

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One of the negatives of having a deep team, as Villanova has, is a lot of players have to be cycled in and out of the game. The Wildcats have young players to develop, veterans who have earned playing time, and four who transferred in with expectations of their own, yet only five spots on the floor to appease them all.

Thus far, Neptune has played everyone. Seven Wildcats average 20-plus minutes, with two more over 10. That doesn’t include Nnanna Njoku, who averages 5.3 minutes but has shown he’s a capable defender.

Jay Wright preferred a short rotation, although the dangers of that were shown when Moore and Jordan Longino got hurt during the 2022 Final Four run. But continually subbing and having as many as 10 in the rotation can hurt a team’s rhythm, and it can be argued that regular substitutions have been partially to blame for some of Villanova’s offensive struggles.

Villanova is off until Jan. 3, when it faces Xavier (7-6) at Finneran Pavilion (8:30 p.m., FS1). Home matchups with St. John’s (8-4) and DePaul (2-9) follow. There are no easy games in the Big East, but Villanova could be 12-4 when games against No. 10 Marquette (10-3) and No. 5 UConn (11-2) come around.

The Wildcats have shown flashes of being a really good team, but they’ve shown flashes before. If Villanova can keep up the best parts of its pre-Christmas road trip, it could be a very happy New Year.

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