Is surging Villanova for real? We’ll find out Wednesday at No. 2 UConn

It’s been written about and discussed ad nauseam at this point, but it’s too obvious to ignore. The 2022-23 Villanova men’s basketball season can be separated into two parts: the pre-Cam Whitmore era and the post-Whitmore era, that’s how much of an impact the freshman and potential NBA lottery pick has made.

Whitmore has been on the floor for the last five games. Villanova (7-5, 1-0 Big East) hasn’t lost.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story, especially to the type of Villanova fan who needs to see something to believe it. Three of those five wins came against the likes of Penn, Boston College, and St. Joseph’s — three teams that won’t sniff at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

Villanova’s best win of the season came in Whitmore’s debut, a 70-66 victory over Oklahoma on Dec. 3 at the Wells Fargo Center. The Wildcats’ latest, a 15-point win over St. John’s last Wednesday, was among their most complete performances of the year. The Red Storm arrived at Finneran Pavilion with just one loss, albeit they had been relatively untested.

In other words, what does this Wildcats team really look like among the best teams in college basketball? And how seriously should we be taking this five-game winning streak after the 2-5 start?

With caution that one-game sample sizes are not be-all-end-all barometers, Wednesday night in Hartford against No. 2 Connecticut (6:30, FS1) is where you can go to seek some truths. This UConn team is about as legit as legit gets.

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No other team in college basketball ranks in the top 10 in both of KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The Huskies rank sixth on offense and fourth on defense. They score 116.4 points per 100 possessions (adjusted for opponent) and allow 86.2 points per 100 defensive possessions. That’s an efficiency spread of plus-30.1 points per 100 possessions. Only Houston, at 30.3, has a larger margin.

Villanova, for comparison, is at plus-13.7, a respectable number (No. 53 in the nation), but not an elite one.

How good has unbeaten UConn been? All 13 of its wins have come by double digits. The Huskies haven’t played too difficult of a schedule (KenPom rates it 150th), but beat a top-10 team, Alabama, by 15.

The Huskies and Wildcats have two common opponents from their Thanksgiving weekend trip to Portland: Iowa State and Oregon. Villanova lost to those teams (without Whitmore), by two and seven points, respectively.

UConn spanked Oregon, 83-59, then rolled over Iowa State, 71-53, in the Phil Knight Invitational title game.

The Huskies are 2-0 to start their Big East schedule. KenPom predicts they will go 17-3 in conference play and have a 4.7% chance of going unbeaten (insert a chuckle here, because no one goes undefeated in the Big East). They will likely be favored in almost every game they play. They’re led by preseason conference player of the year Adama Sanogo, a 6-foot-9, 245-pound forward who is averaging 18.6 points and 7.2 rebounds and has added an occasional three-point jumper to his artillery. Last year, Villanova’s Eric Dixon had one of the best games of his season when the Wildcats beat UConn at home. But Sanogo got the better of him two weeks later in Hartford.

Sanogo has had plenty of help. Sophomore Jordan Hawkins is making three three-pointers per game (on 7.5 attempts) and scoring 14.3 points per game. Senior guard Tristen Newton, a transfer from East Carolina, does a bit of everything and averages 10.2 points, 4.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals.

The Huskies have seven players averaging at least nine points per game. On the other end of the floor, UConn has made scoring quite difficult for its opponents, surrendering just 58.6 points per game. That’s the best in the Big East and No. 12 in the nation.

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At the start of this season, Villanova was pretty easy to prepare for. You knew where the shots were coming from: Caleb Daniels, Dixon, and, occasionally, Brandon Slater. Those three scored 66% of Villanova’s points over the first seven games.

Whitmore’s return has added another scorer, to be sure, but it also allowed Villanova to spread the ball around. Freshman Mark Armstrong also seems to be getting more comfortable at the college level.

Sophomore wing Jordan Longino has been playing through occasional knee pain after undergoing surgery on a meniscus tear in the spring. Longino played one of his best games vs. St. John’s, scoring 13 points on 5-of-5 shooting.

Villanova has had four different leading scorers during its five-game winning streak, and seven players have hit double digits at least once over that stretch.

“We have extremely talented players up and down our roster, and we know any given night anybody can be our leading scorer,” coach Kyle Neptune said. “We really don’t worry about offense as much because we know we have great offensive players.”

It’s been on the defensive end, Neptune said, where Villanova has made its biggest improvements recently. The Wildcats are allowing just 61.6 points per game over their last five.

We’ll see just how real those improvements are on Wednesday night.