Philly had 10 homicides in September, the lowest monthly total in nearly a decade

There were fewer homicides recorded in Philadelphia this September than in any other month over the last nine years, according to an Inquirer analysis of police statistics — another demonstration of how violence has plummeted in 2024 after three years of record-setting gunfire.

Police reported 10 killings in September, the fewest in a month since April 2015, when six people were killed, city statistics show.

The low September total was just the latest example of how 2024 has marked a significant departure from the violence levels at the height of the pandemic. After averaging 44 homicides per month from 2020 through 2022, the Inquirer’s analysis shows, the city has experienced about 21 homicides per month this year — meaning the pace of killings has been effectively cut in half.

The decline has also been seen citywide: Some of the city’s most traditionally violent police districts — covering parts of North Philadelphia, Kensington, and Northwest Philadelphia — have seen year-to-date homicides drop by nearly 70% compared to three years ago.

And in September, there wasn’t a single homicide recorded in 16 of the city’s 22 police districts.

The trend has not been limited to fatal shootings. Shootings in which someone was struck by a bullet but survived have declined by 37% compared to last year, the analysis shows.

In September, 72 people were wounded by gunfire. The city has only experienced a monthly total that low 19 times over the past 117 months, the Inquirer’s analysis shows.

City officials have said they aren’t certain what’s been driving the downturn this year — just as many were equally unsure why violence surged in 2020.

Commissioner Kevin Bethel said in an interview that police have been focusing for nearly two years on some of the city’s most violent districts, hoping to drive down violence overall by adding some patrol officers and increasing the focus on sections of neighborhoods where gunfire has remained stubbornly high.

The clearance rates for homicides and shootings — the percentage of cases considered solved — have also increased this year, Bethel said, a development he described as an important component of accountability for people involved in violence. The homicide clearance rate is currently over 70%, Bethel said, up from about 47% in 2022.

“We continue to evaluate all of that,” he said.

Carl Day, a North Philadelphia pastor who mentors young people, said he believes the city’s investment in community-based organizations has also been a key factor — providing funds and opportunities directly to groups who know their neighborhoods best.

“These very same leaders who’ve been staples in their communities finally got the support,” Day said.

Still, although the decline in violence has been significant, Bethel acknowledged that violence remains a key problem for the city. Just last week, to begin October, a 17-year-old girl was killed at a party in North Philadelphia, a 42-year-old man was shot near the Fashion District in Center City, a 17-year-old was shot on a SEPTA bus, and an off-duty homicide detective fatally shot a 54-year-old man in Northeast Philadelphia.

There are a number of ways to visualize this year’s striking decline in violence.

One example: During the peak of the shooting crisis, from 2020 through 2022, the city experienced 82 weeks in which at least 10 people were killed in homicides.

Through September this year, that hasn’t happened once.

During that same three-year stretch, there wasn’t a single month in which police reported fewer than 20 homicides.

But that’s happened four times already this year.

And the peaks of violence during the pandemic were especially alarming: Between 2020 and 2022, there were ten separate months in which police reported at least 50 homicides.

But so far this year, the highest monthly total has been 27 killings, in July.

The decline is equally stark when looking at individual police districts.

The 24th District, for example, covers much of Kensington and its open-air drug market, and has historically experienced some of the most concentrated violence in the entire nation.

But homicides there this year are down by nearly 45% — and have declined nearly 70% compared to three years ago.

North Philadelphia’s 22nd District has seen a similar reduction. In 2021, 56 people had been killed there through September.

This year, through the same date, 18 people have been slain.

Bethel said police for two years have focused intensely on seeking to address violence in those districts and several others. The department has used statistics and mapping to guide its patrol strategy for many years, but Bethel said his predecessor — John Stanford, who served as interim commissioner before becoming Bethel’s top deputy — specifically emphasized adding patrol officers and new recruits into those areas beginning in 2023.

Still, Bethel said patrol strategy alone can’t explain the significant decrease. And he said it’s difficult to have certainty about why the numbers have dropped so dramatically.

Some of it could be society returning to a sense of pre-pandemic normalcy, he said, with schools, jobs, and the criminal justice systems all resuming operations without the disruptions or shutdowns that lingered for years. Isolating how any of those factors influenced a change in violence — or by how much — could take years to sort out.

In any case, Bethel said, the city’s attempts to address violence must remain an ongoing effort.

“It’s going take time,” he said. “One good year is not going to erase some of the most violent years we’ve ever seen in the city of Philadelphia.”