2021 NFL draft: The Eagles won’t take a QB in the first round, but a lot of other teams will

This is the first of an 11-part series on the 2021 NFL draft in which, for the third straight year, Ben Fennell breaks down the draft for The Inquirer. Ben is an Emmy award-winning producer, editor and researcher across several media platforms, most notably NFL Network and ESPN College Football. This will be his seventh draft for the NFL Network. You can follow him on Twitter at @benfennell_NFL.

In the 84 years the NFL has been holding its college draft, quarterbacks have been taken with the first three picks only twice. The last time was in 1999, when the Eagles took Donovan McNabb with the second pick right after the Cleveland Browns took Tim Couch and right before the Cincinnati Bengals took Akili Smith.

This year, we could have a first. We could see the first four picks in the draft all be quarterbacks.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are locked on to Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence with the first pick. The New York Jets are expected to take BYU’s Zach Wilson with the second pick, and the San Francisco 49ers, who traded up from 12 to 3 late last month, are expected to take one of the other three top quarterbacks in this draft — Ohio State’s Justin Fields, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, or Alabama’s Mac Jones.

The Atlanta Falcons currently own the fourth pick. With their longtime starting quarterback, Matt Ryan, turning 36 in May, they also might take a quarterback. If they’re not quite ready to draft Ryan’s successor, then they’ll likely trade down with one of the many quarterback-needy teams that are looking to move up.

“There’s a very good chance the first four picks are going to be quarterbacks,” NFL Network draft analyst Ben Fennell said. “All five of those [top] guys probably will be off the board in the first 7-8 picks.

“Teams that need quarterbacks have been put on notice. If you want a quarterback, you’d better go up and get one.”

The Eagles, who initially had the No. 6 pick, were believed to have been considering taking a quarterback in the first round. But they traded out of the spot when it became apparent there was going to be an early run on them. They now have the 12th pick in the first round.

Because of the importance of the position, the top quarterbacks in the draft get pushed up every year. Quarterbacks with second-round grades often end up going in the first round. Unlike other positions, their draft slot seldom reflects their evaluation. The tendency is to get your quarterback early or wait until the later rounds and maybe find a diamond in the rough.

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Forty-seven quarterbacks have been taken in the last four drafts. Fifteen have gone in the first round. Twenty-five have gone in rounds 4-7. Just seven have been taken in the second and third rounds.

Fennell thinks just two quarterbacks — Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond and Stanford’s Davis Mills — will get taken on Day 2 of the draft.

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The list of potential Day 3 quarterbacks includes Florida’s Kyle Trask, Georgia’s Jamie Newman (who didn’t play last season after transferring from Wake Forest), Notre Dame’s Ian Book, and Texas’ Sam Ellinger.

“The class is always defined by the top,” Fennell said. “And this one is very, very deep at the top.”

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, 6-5, 213, Rd. 1

2. Zach Wilson, BYU, 6-2, 214, Rd. 1

3. Trey Lance, N. Dakota St., 6-4, 224, Rd. 1

4. Mac Jones, Alabama, 6-2, 217, Rd. 1

5. Justin Fields, Ohio St., 6-3, 227, Rd. 1

Trevor Lawrence

Clemson

6-5, 213

Hands: 10 inches

40-time: n/a

Fennell’s take: “He’s as good as any No. 1 quarterback prospect that’s come out in the last 10-15 years. An exceptional height, weight, speed athlete. Just a different package than we’re used to. He checks all the boxes as a thrower and ability. He’s got a lot of experience. Won a national championship as an 18-year-old. He’s tough and tough-minded, willing to pull the trigger on high-level throws.

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“He’s going to be a great fit for Urban Meyer’s RPO system in Jacksonville. If you think back to Alex Smith when he played for Meyer at Utah, and Tim Tebow in Florida and all of the Ohio State quarterbacks Urban’s had, it’s going to be a perfect, perfect marriage.

“He has a tendency to lock on to his initial read and needs to improve the speed of his progressions. The other thing is how true is his accuracy and ball placement. He had some gazelle-like receivers at Clemson with huge catch radiuses where he just had to put the ball in an area. He’s going to have to make more pinpoint throws in the NFL. But I don’t think he’s going to have a problem doing that.”

Round projection: 1 (the first overall pick).

Zach Wilson

BYU

6-2, 214

Hands: 9 ½ inches

40-time: n/a

Fennell’s take: “Wilson’s been on a meteoric rise. Going into 2020, many didn’t even have him as a draftable player. He has a very strong, loose arm. He can win from all different platforms. He’s very creative, which a lot of coaches feel you need from your quarterback in today’s game. He can throw the ball deep. He can drive it. He can throw off-platform. He can play with anticipation. Has great quick-game rhythm. Like Lawrence, he’s going to be perfect for an RPO-based offense, making post-snap reads.

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“He has experience with a lot of play-action. BYU was a run-first offense. So he handed the ball off a lot, turned his back to the defense, got on the edge. But what everybody loved was his out-of-structure stuff. He’s the best improvisational quarterback in the class. His escapability is like Kyler Murray’s. He’s a quick-footed, short-stride guy. He’ll look to extend plays and still be a distributor, not just get in a running mode like a lot of other mobile guys.

“He can throw on the run left or right. The only issues with him are inexperience, the fact that he’s a little undersized, and a couple of off-the-field things.”

Round projection: 1 (likely the second overall pick).

Davis Mills

Stanford

6-4, 225

Hands: 9½ inches

40-time: 4.58 seconds

Fennell’s take: “Mills has been a spot starter for two years. He only has 11 starts and played just over 800 snaps. That’s a wildly small body of work for a prospect. At 6-4 and 225 pounds, he looks like he was made in a lab to be the quarterback for Friday Night Lights. He has a strong arm and is an effortless thrower. Playing in Stanford’s run-first offense, he’s made a lot of pro-style throws off play-action.

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“He has really good mobility. His good stuff looks like Matt Ryan. His average stuff looks like Zach Mettenberger. He’s a big-armed kid who can throw missiles around the field, but is very raw and inexperienced.

“There’s a lot of guys in the draft like Mills. Flash-in-the-pans that you don’t know if they’re the real deal or not. But I think Mills is the real deal. So do a lot of NFL teams. I’d be shocked if he makes it out of Day 2. There’s going to be a big run on skill players on Day 2, and I’d be surprised if more than two quarterbacks go on Day 2. But I think Mills will be one of them.”

Round projection: 3.