Super Bowl prop bets winners and losers, plus the Eagles’ Super Bowl odds for next year
The late money favored the Bengals, who covered the spread largely because of a missed extra point by the Rams in the first half.
Mattress Mack’s $9.5 million in bets on the Super Bowl are sleeping with the fishes after the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals. But a missed extra point in the second quarter was the difference for those who took the Bengals and the points.
“America believes in Joe Burrow,” Jay Croucher, head oddsmaker at PointsBet, said during the Rams’ 23-20 victory. “All the late money has been on Cincinnati, tipping the balance, to the point where we’re now cheering for the home favorite.”
The early money, too.
SuperBook took $380,000 on the Bengals at +4 during the week with executive director John Murray telling Props.com at the time, “all the six-figure wagers are on the Bengals.”
PointsBet said 56% of its point-spread handle was on the Bengals. At DraftKings, 54% of the spread handle was on Cincy, but 62% of money-line plays also were on the Bengals.
Yo, Mack
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, the Houston mattress salesman who placed several bets on the Bengals’ money line — including a U.S. record $5 million wager on Friday — owns four stores and fuels his outrageous bets by holding furniture sales. He’ll be fine.
But millions more dollars (at least) swung on the Rams’ inability to convert the extra point following their second touchdown. Their three-point win did not cover most of the spreads that bounced between 3.5 to 4 to 4.5 during the two weeks leading up to Sunday’s Super Bowl.
The worst beat/best win was probably in those ubiquitous block pools. The final score should have been 24-20, shafting all those with Rams 4/Bengals 0 while enriching those with Rams 3/Bengals 0.
Coin toss
The most popular prop at Caesars, somewhat comically, was on the coin toss to land on tails. The second most was for it to land on heads. Rams captain Matthew Stafford called tails. Heads came up.
BetMGM was offering -500 that the coin-toss winner would defer to the second half. Its data analyst, John Ewing, noted that going into Super Bowl, Sean McVay had deferred 48 of 48 times when the Rams won the toss, and Zac Taylor had deferred 26 of 27 times. Taylor, in fact, deferred on Sunday. Might have been the easiest play on the board.
Super Bowl MVP
Cooper Kupp opened at 66-1 to win Super Bowl MVP at BetMGM, and was 6-1 before kickoff. At FanDuel, any wide receiver was 3-1, and the SB MVP to play any position other than quarterback was a little more than 2-1 (+225, to be precise).
My vote would have gone to defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who was 14-1 at FD.
National anthem
Wagering on the length of the national anthem isn’t allowed in most jurisdictions, but we’ll note it here anyway. Highest line we saw was offshore at 1 minute, 46 seconds. We timed Mickey Guyton at 1:49, which paid all the overs.
Notable futures
DraftKings on Oct. 24 took a $117,750 play at +950 odds on the Rams to win the Super Bowl. It paid out $1,118,625.
Caesars took an $18,000 bet on the Rams the day before their season opener when they were 14-1. That ticket cashed for $252,000.
BetMGM had to pay $120,000 on a $10,000 wager when L.A. was 12-1. It escaped having to pay $1 million on a midseason Cincy bet when the Bengals were 20-1.
Cincy opened at 125-1 at Caesars. It was the longest shot to reach the Super Bowl since the 1999 Rams, who were 150-1 and won it by beating the Tennessee Titans.
Color me blue
Rams coach Sean McVay was doused with blue Gatorade after the victory. Blue was 4-1 at DraftKings before the game. Clear/water was the favorite at 5-2. Again, not available in all jurisdictions.
Notable cross-sport props/At SuperBook
Steph Curry was +0.5 for made three-pointers Saturday (he was 1-for-8) vs. Odell Beckham Jr. receptions. Beckham won the prop with just two catches before having to leave the game in the second quarter with a leg injury.
The winning margin in Saturday’s Suns-Magic game (Phoenix won by 27) vs. Cam Akers’ rushing attempts was an easy winner as Akers had just 13 carries.
Villanova NCAA Tournament wins plus 0.5 vs. Rams’ first-half touchdowns is still in play. Unless they are tabbed for the play-in round, the Wildcats will need to get to the Sweet 16 in order to clinch this bet as the Rams scored two TDs in the first half.
Joel Embiid points+rebounds+assists on Saturday vs. Rams-Bengals total points (plus 0.5). Embiid had 64 (40p-14r-10a), blowing way past the 43 scored in the Super Bowl. SuperBook VP Ed Salmons said they took “$2,500 on the points.”
Bet against Embiid at your own peril this season.
Easy come, easy go
An unidentified bettor at BetMGM had $1 million each on the Rams -0.5 for the first quarter (+105, win $1.05M), Rams -2.5 for first half (-120, win $833K), and Rams over 13.5 for the first half (-115, win $869,565).
He won the first two plays, but lost the over-first half when the Rams flubbed that PAT. He netted $883,000, but it could easily have been $2.75 million. Ugh.
It also could have been worse. He had to sweat out that first quarter $1 million on the Rams -0.5 when the Bengals settled for a field goal with 31 seconds left after Ja’Marr Chase’s 46-yard reception. The Rams won the first quarter, 7-3, but it could have been 7-7.
My picks
Picked the Bengals to win 27-26 with Joe Burrow getting the MVP. At least they covered, so I’ll call it a split. Also spent a fictional $100 on four props, going 3-for-4.
Total interceptions, over 1.5 – Winner, $25 to win $22.72.
Joe Burrow over 2.5 TD passes – Loser, $25.
More rushing yards, Joe Mixon over Cam Akers – Winner, $25 to win $22.72.
Over 3.5 punts by Johnny Hekker – Winner, $25 to win $30.
Final record for the year – 31-13 total, 13-6 in playoffs.
And finally
SuperBook’s opening lines for next year’s Super Bowl
7-1: Buf … 8-1: KC, LAR … 10-1: Dal, SF … 16-1: GB … 20-1: Ariz, Cin, Den, LAC, Tenn … 25-1: Ind
30-1: Balt, Min, NE, Sea … 40-1: Cle, LV, NO, Eagles … 50-1: Caro, TB, Wash … 60-1: Atl, Chi, Mia, Pit
100-1: Jax, NYG … 150-1: Det, NYJ … 500-1: Hou
Note: Eagles are 20-1 to win the NFC. The Rams (4-1), Dallas (5-1), San Fran (5-1) and Green Bay are at the top of the NFC board.