A.J. Brown injury puts Eagles at massive disadvantage against Falcons

As much time as we all spent theorizing about “what really happened” during the Great Eagles Collapse of ‘23, we somehow managed to ignore one of the most obvious factors.

A.J. Brown got hurt.

That’s when rock bottom arrived. The tendency is to look at the Eagles’ 32-9 playoff loss to the Bucs as an extension of the six weeks that preceded it. It was more evidence of the need for some grand unified theory to explain what went wrong after 10-1. Except, the Eagles offense was pretty darn good in Weeks 16 and 17. They scored points on 12 of their first 17 possessions against the Giants and the Cardinals, including six touchdowns. No team in the league scored on a higher percentage of their possessions than the Eagles did in weeks 16 and 17. They had six drives of 70+ yards, most in the NFL. They ranked in the top five in yards, plays, touchdowns and time of possession per drive.

Heading into Week 18, the Eagles offense was mostly culpable for three bad weeks: two against very good defenses (49ers, Cowboys), one in tough conditions with a sick quarterback (Seahawks). The wheels didn’t fall off until the first quarter of the regular season finale. Before then, Brown had played 89 percent of the Eagles offensive snaps since they acquired him. He’d played more snaps during that stretch than all but one receiver in the NFL: DeVonta Smith.

Brown was the biggest difference between the Eagles of Week 3 and the Eagles of Wild Card weekend. In their regular season win over the Bucs, he caught nine passes for 131 yards. In their playoff loss to the Bucs, he did not play.

We’re going to learn a lot of things about a lot of people on Monday night. For just the second time in their last 38 games, the Eagles are going to take the field without their alpha out wide. Brown’s name popped up on the injury report on Friday, with coach Nick Sirianni saying after practice that the receiver’s hamstring “got a little tight.” Less than 48 hours later, the Eagles announced that he would miss their Week 2 game against the Falcons.

It is a serious blow. More serious than you might think. Brown has been easy to take for granted in the two-plus years since he arrived in Philly. He has played in all 35 of the Eagles regular-season games dating back to his first in midnight green. He and DeVonta Smith are two of only 12 receivers in the NFL who have started 34-plus games since 2022. Only three receivers have played more snaps than Brown during that stretch. One of them is Smith.

Of all Brown’s talents, his most underappreciated is his presence. He is always there. That’s an incredibly powerful thing with a player as powerful as Brown. In NBA circles, the analytics folks like to talk about a concept called “gravity.” It refers to the force that a player exerts on opposing defenses. The greatest of players pull a defense toward them and open up space for others. Brown is that kind of player at the wide receiver position. The offense may not run through him in the same sense that the Sixers offense runs through Joel Embiid. But his impact on the game plan is similar.

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Sirianni gave a nod to this on Friday when reporters asked him about Jahan Dotson, the third-year receiver whom the Eagles acquired from the Commanders before Week 1. Dotson wasn’t much of a factor in Week 1 against the Packers. He played 26 pass snaps, saw one target, did not catch it. Thing is, the Eagles did not need Dotson to be much of a factor.

Brown and Smith combined for 203 yards on 12 catches and 18 targets. Dallas Goedert had another 31 yards on four catches and five targets.

“What I think’s going to be unfair to that third guy is, like, the pass game runs through A.J. and DeVonta,” Sirianni said. “I don’t know how many times I’ve said the same thing over and over again: The pass game runs through DeVonta, A.J., and Dallas. The pass game runs through DeVonta, A.J., and Dallas. Sometimes that guy gets unfairly judged because he doesn’t have the opportunities that other people get.”

Brown and Smith are very much the Eagles’ Jordan and Pippen. I don’t know what that makes Goedert. Toni Kukoc?

Point is, the Eagles are a rarity. Their entire offense flows from the talent of their receivers. And Brown is the prime mover. He is the one whom defensive coordinators must scheme to stop.

We saw it last week against the Packers. Jaire Alexander tried to man him up and it did not go well. In addition to Brown’s 67-yard touchdown, he caught three other passes for first downs when matched up against Green Bay’s All-Pro corner. The long touchdown was the difference in the game. There aren’t many receivers in the game who can beat Alexander like that.

Dotson can’t replace that. It would be unfair to expect him to. We’ve seen it with the Bengals when they have played without Ja’Marr Chase, and the Vikings without Justin Jefferson. Those are Brown’s peers. He isn’t just a No. 1 receiver. He is one of a small handful of legitimate game-plan changers. Over the last two-plus seasons, he ranks third in the NFL in games of 50-plus yards (28, behind CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill), second in games of 80-plus yards (19, behind Hill, and is tied with Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown for third in games of 100-plus yards (13, behind Hill and Jefferson).

Dotson isn’t the guy in the spotlight. The Eagles’ ability to survive without Brown will depend on Kellen Moore and Jalen Hurts. The injury comes at the worst possible time: late in the week, after the game plan has already been formulated. It’s an early chance for Moore to flash his ability to think on his feet. The Eagles can’t possibly expect to attack the Falcons the way they were going to with Brown.

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Moore is in a difficult spot. The Falcons already had the benefit of the unknown with first-year defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake coming off a game against a run-first quarterback, Pittsburgh’s Justin Fields.

“Especially early on in the season, the first few games of the year, you’re going to see a lot of unscouted looks, you’re going to see a lot of things you haven’t seen on film,” Moore said earlier this week, before Brown’s injury. “You’ve got to be prepared to handle that and trust your rules and trust your training that you’ve invested [in] all offseason.”

We have a one-game sample of the Eagles offense without Brown. It did not go well. Monday night will be an early opportunity to see just how much they have grown.