Who’s No. 1? Betting on NFL draft’s top pick is a guessing game that sportsbooks don’t like.
Georgia defensive end Travon Walker is the current favorite, but more than three months since the college football season ended, it's still not clear.
There hasn’t been a college football game in more than three months, and yet the consensus favorite for who will be the first pick in the NFL draft keeps changing. The latest at the top of the board is Georgia defensive end Travon Walker.
His ascension to -220 at Caesars is all about the action he’s generating at the windows. As of Monday morning, he was tops in tickets sold to be the No. 1 pick (32%) and tops in dollars wagered (45%). Caesars added him to the No. 1 pick board on March 23. They’re holding a $2,000 ticket from an Illinois bettor when Walker was 15-1. In the business, that’s called beating the number.
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“The No. 1 pick has been all over the place,” said Johnny Avello, director of operations for DraftKings. “At one time, we had a guy like [Oregon defensive end Kayvon] Thibodeaux up there, but now he’s at like 20-1.”
In mid-February, Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson could be had at +200 to be the top pick at some books. But then Caesars lowered his odds from +160 to +200 while moving Alabama offensive lineman Evan Neal to the top of the board at +150.
“This is our most hated event to book just because of how much can change every day,” Caesars trader Adam Pullen said at the time. “This should be a more tame market, though, since there are two clear favorites.”
Yeah, well, that was before folks started jumping on Walker for whatever reason. Unlike traditional wagering where numbers and data are the lifeblood, NFL Draft wagering is all about opinion, speculation, innuendo and even guessing. Bookies don’t like that, so wagering amounts are limited, especially for the sharp bettors.
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“There have been a lot of guys around that No. 1 spot and Walker is now the latest,” Avello continued. “The draft is not performance-based [data]. This is all information driven, like mock drafts. … That’s the way bookmakers have to handle it. It’s a challenge. It’s a tough event to have positive revenue on. We’ve had [times] where we’ve made a few bucks, but for the most part we’re still trying to navigate through it. But it certainly brings in a lot of action. It’s very popular.”
The Jacksonville Jaguars, who hired Doug Pederson to be their coach in February, currently have the No. 1 overall pick.
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Draftniks
Wagering on the NFL Draft (or any draft for that matter) is prohibited in Pennsylvania because it is not recognized as a sporting event.
Not only is it legal in New Jersey, but DraftKings will be offering live wagering, similar to in-game.
Nevada regulators require sportsbooks to close their draft windows on Wednesday, the day before the first pick. With the draft being held smack in the middle of the Las Vegas Strip on Thursday night, there are going to be a lot of confused and angry tourists unable to make a wager.
There are markets available for Friday’s and Saturday’s rounds, but the action is very light.
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Gimme 5
Odds on the top five picks (as of 7 p.m. Monday)
Caesars: Travon Walker (-220), Aidan Hutchinson (+200), Ikem Ekwonu (+500), Evan Neal (+1800), Kayvon Thibodeaux (+2000)
DraftKings: Walker (-190), Hutchinson (+200), Ekwonu (+500), Neal (+2500), Thibodeaux (+2500).
BetMGM: Walker (-225), Hutchinson (+250), Ekwonu (+400), Neal (+2000), Desmond Ridder (+3000), Thibodeaux (+5000).
QB or Not QB
Over/under of where the top quarterbacks will be selected
Malik Willis, Liberty: 10.5, over is -150, under +120 (DK)
Kenny Pickett, Pitt: 12.5, over is -185, under is +140 (BetMGM)
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati: 28.5, over is -135, under is +105 (DK)
Matt Corral, Mississippi: 33.5, over is -135, under is +100
Sam Howell, North Carolina: 45.5, over is -140, under is +105
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And finally
Some odds for Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson
The over/under for where he will be drafted is 31.5 at DraftKings. The over is +100, under is -135.
DK also has him at +5000 to be the first receiver selected, +3000 to be the second receiver chosen and +2500 as third. Stay away.
And the over/under for wide receivers selected in the first round is 6.5 at -115 each side. Dotson could determine whether this comes in over or under.