Expect early fireworks from Chiefs vs. Bengals, and can 49ers make it 7 straight vs. Rams?

Andy Reid is a second-generation leaf off the Bill Walsh coaching tree. Compares football to chocolate cake, scripts out his team’s first 15 plays, wins consistently. Walsh revolutionized the NFL with his West Coast offense in the 1980s, no idea what his favorite dessert was, but scripting plays early helped his team get off in rhythm. Having Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana didn’t hurt either.

Which brings us to the Chiefs.

Last year, Patrick Mahomes sat out the regular-season finale because the Chiefs had locked up the AFC’s top seed. He decided to test himself during the week’s preparation, telling Dan Patrick in an interview, “I made my own first 15 [plays] to see how close I could get to the coaches and I was actually pretty close. I have a good feeling for what Coach Reid is thinking.”

Last week’s “Be the Grim Reaper” moment was just the latest example in this fascinating quarterback-coach relationship. Mahomes and Reid are on another level, and those first 15 plays can be turned into profit.

Sunday’s first-half Chiefs-Bengals over/under at DraftKings is 27.5 points. In the Chiefs’ win in the 2019 AFC championship game against Tennessee, 38 total points were scored in the first half. In last year’s AFC title game against Buffalo, 33 were scored. And when KC played Cincinnati in Week 17 earlier this month, they led 24-17 at half. Even when they were flattened in last year’s Super Bowl, KC’s defense chipped in by giving up three touchdowns to trail 21-6 at half.

» READ MORE: Eagles draft: Which Senior Bowl position groups should you watch most closely?

Weather will not be a factor Sunday, so a look at over 27.5 is warranted. Just watch, though. PointsBet’s line is 28.5. That one point could be crucial. Good luck, reaping.

Sunday

Cincinnati (54.5) at Kansas City (-7), 3 p.m., CBS: The Chiefs have covered six in a row at home and their last seven games overall (home and road) have gone over. More than 54.5 points were scored in six of those games. … Patrick Mahomes called this matchup weeks ago when he told Joe Burrow after their Week 17 game, “See y’all in the playoffs.” … In that game, Cincy’s Ja’Marr Chase set a rookie record with 255 receiving yards, and established the rookie record for yards in a season (in his 16th game played). His over/under at DraftKings is 87.5 yards, 5.5 catches. … BetMGM sold a $10,000 ticket on the Bengals when they were 40-1 to win the Super Bowl. Would pay $400k.

The picks: Really want to take Cincy, but can’t get past that their offensive line looked so bad last week in giving up nine sacks to Tennessee. It was no fluke. Burrow was sacked more than any quarterback this season (51 times) and his sack rate per attempt (8.9) is troubling compared with Mahomes (28 times sacked, 4.1 per attempt). So the call here is a tease of Kansas City down to +1. Also going to take a piece of the DraftKings’ prop of the largest margin of victory in either of Sunday’s games to be under 14.5 at a reasonable -130. The over is +110.

» READ MORE: Brandon Brooks retires an Eagles great, but his strength in the face of mental illness will be most lasting

San Francisco (46) at L.A. Rams (-3.5): 6:30 p.m., Fox: The 49ers have beaten the Rams six straight times, covering five. Kicker Robbie Gould has hammered walk-offs in three of those wins. DraftKings has his over/under on made field goals at 1.5 with over at +110, under at -140. … An interesting subplot will be how much work the Rams give running back Cam Akers, who played for the first time all season last week. He fumbled twice. Once when he was about to score at the end of the first half, and again late in the fourth quarter, which nearly cost the Rams the game. BetMGM has the over/under on his number of rushing attempts at 17.5. Seems high. … San Fran’s Elijah Mitchell (+190) is favored to lead all players in rushing Sunday. Also among FanDuel’s leaders is Joe Mixon (+240), Akers (+250), Deebo Samuel (+430), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+850). Sony Michel, who figures to be next in line behind Akers, is +1600.

The picks: Going to close that Chiefs teaser and take San Fran up to 9.5. They’re playing so darn loose that some hoagie money also goes on the Niners’ money line – Caesars and SuperBook were among those at +165. Nothing will sink San Fran quicker than a foolish interception by Garoppolo, which hopefully he was reminded of this week with a metaphorical Wile E. Coyote-sized mallet. With that being the case, we’ll take Garoppolo to have over 2.5 rushing yards with the hope that he tucks it and runs a couple times rather than make the risky throw. BetMGM’s odds were -110 over, -120 under.

Last week: 3-1. Playoffs: 7-2. Season: 27-9.

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce figures to attract plenty of attention on the field and at the wagering window. He is the only player in NFL history with five consecutive postseason games with at least 95 yards receiving. His mid-week over/under at BetMGM was 75.5 yards, while his O/U for receptions was 6.5. Here is a look at Kelce’s last five playoff games (plus Sunday) and where his opponent ranked in passing defense during the regular season:

Note: Kelce had just 25 yards on five catches (one touchdown) against Cincinnati during their Week 17 meeting.

NBA: Joel Embiid’s point total prop at Caesars on Thursday was 35.5, tied for their highest all year. Embiid had 26. It equaled the 35.5 on Steph Curry on Oct. 24. Curry had 27 that night.

NHL: New Jersey is on a fascinating streak, which has been quite lucrative for those who jumped on early. A goal has been scored in the first 10 minutes of the last 13 Devils games, and 15 of the last 17 as tracked by hockey data specialist Chris Otto. He shares his stats on Twitter @PSUOtto. It’s a run that started on Dec. 14 when Travis Sanheim scored for the Flyers at the 9:14 mark. (That was also the Flyers’ last win in regulation.) Three times the streak has come down to the final minute, and twice it was taken care of in the first minute. Joe Pavelski scored 14 seconds into Tuesday’s game.

» READ MORE: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have to make the Eagles wonder if Jalen Hurts is their future

NFL: Among the big plays at the SouthPoint in Vegas is $220,000 on San Francisco at +3.5 to win $200,000.

NBA: PointsBet had the Clippers at +7000 when they were down 35 to Washington on Tuesday before mounting the second-biggest comeback in NBA history. The Clips were about +165 pregame. Still won despite trailing by seven with 20 seconds left. Keep that game in mind in late April as both teams are fighting for their playoff lives.

NBA: Player at FanDuel turned an $8 parlay on the first basket of six NBA different games into $333,179.14. Anthony Davis (Lakers), Miles Bridges (Hornets), Kyle Kuzma (Wizards), Jayson Tatum (Celtics), Kristaps Porzings (Mavericks) and Joel Embiid (Sixers) all scored first for the lottery payout. Could never recommend such plays, but they are lucrative when they hit.

The police department in Lakewood (Colorado, not New Jersey) gets a 15-yard penalty for piling it on to Buffalo’s misery. They tweeted out the following warning ahead of some tricky weather hitting the area on Friday:

“There will be snow (2-5 inches) tomorrow during the AM rush hour, so you know the routine: Make sure your tires have good tread, drive slowly & give the same amount of room to nearby cars that the #Bills gave to #TravisKelce with 7 seconds left to get [into] FG range.”

Ouch.

FanDuel’s look-ahead lines for the four potential Super Bowl matchups. Game is Sunday, Feb. 13 in Los Angeles, so the Rams would be playing at home if they win Sunday.