Inside the stats for the Chiefs and Eagles: Explosive plays, a dangerous QB, and two tough lines
Both teams are capable of big plays, as the statistics show. Patrick Mahomes, when healthy, can pass and scramble like no other.
After five months of football, the Eagles punched their tickets to Arizona for Super Bowl LVII. What awaits them when they land in Phoenix will be a date with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here are six stats breaking down the Feb. 12 matchup between NFL juggernauts:
13.6
The Super Bowl will feature two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
The Chiefs ranked second in explosive play rate at 13.6% during the regular season, according to TruMedia. The Eagles ranked fourth at 12.7%.
A play is deemed explosive if it is a rushing play of 10 yards or more or a passing play of 20 yards or more. Both teams feature tight ends who offer major contributions in the passing game as well as quarterbacks who are efficient and effective taking shots downfield. The Eagles’ wide receiving corps accounts for more of their explosive plays than Kansas City’s, while Travis Kelce is the primary option for Mahomes on chunk plays.
Kelce leads all tight ends and ranks eighth overall with 20 catches over 20 yards this season. For the Eagles, A.J. Brown leads the way with 23, which ranks fifth. DeVonta Smith ranks ninth with 18 catches for 20-plus.
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45
Each team’s apparent prioritization of explosive plays also extends to the defensive side of the ball.
Both the Eagles and the Chiefs play with two deep safeties a good amount and each have solid numbers limiting big plays as a result.
The Chiefs gave up 45 completions of greater than 20 yards in the regular season, which was tied for the eighth-lowest total in the league. They also ranked eighth in opposing explosive play rate at 9.8%, which measures how frequently a defense gives up a pass over 16 yards or a run over 12 yards.
By comparison, the Eagles were tied for third with 40 completions allowed for 20-plus yards and sixth in explosive play rate.
.27
The Eagles’ secondary matches up reasonably well against Kansas City’s receivers, but the Chiefs have the great equalizer at quarterback.
It doesn’t take advanced metrics to see how special Mahomes is running the Chiefs’ offense, but here are some anyway: Mahomes led all quarterbacks with .27 expected points added per dropback in the regular season and a QB rating of 77.6. (EPA per dropback accounts for a QB’s ability to pass and scramble.) His standard stats are just as impressive: He led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards, 41 touchdowns.
Mahomes has been hobbled by an ankle injury suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round, but he was still excellent against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. With Mahomes having two weeks to rest his ankle and the experience of playing in two Super Bowls, the Eagles will have their hands full on Feb. 12.
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21%
Speaking of difficult matchups, the Eagles’ offensive line will have its work cut out for it against Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones.
Jones led all defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate, which measures how often a pass rusher sheds a block within 2.5 seconds on passing plays. Jones won 21% of the time during the regular season, which was 4% higher than Javon Hargrave, who tied for second in the metric.
Jones had two sacks and five quarterback hits against Cincinnati’s shaky offensive line on Sunday and is one of the league’s defensive player of the year finalists after tallying 15½ sacks in the regular season.
88.3
As good as Jones has been, he hasn’t faced an offensive line as stout as the Eagles’ has been all season.
Jordan Mailata has been particularly dominant in the last few games and is Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded tackle as a result. He has earned an 88.3 pass-blocking grade and 86.4 overall grade on a scale of 1-99.
Mailata has surrendered just one pressure on 57 pass-blocking snaps, which is the best among tackles who made it to the conference championship round of the playoffs.
The entire Eagles’ offensive line has earned high marks through the playoffs. Jason Kelce hasn’t given up a pressure yet and Lane Johnson has surrendered just two while playing through a torn groin tendon that kept him out for two games in the regular season.
Landon Dickerson is the highest-graded guard in the playoffs as well. The second-year lineman out of Alabama has earned an 85.2 overall grade through two games.
61.8%
The Eagles’ offense has been at its best this season when it can reel off productive runs on scoring drives.
The Chiefs’ rushing defense is nothing to sneeze at, but it pales in comparison to the San Francisco 49ers group that the Eagles had relative success against. The Chiefs’ 61.8% defensive success rate against the run ranked 12th in the regular season, meaning the group had a favorable outcome relative to the sticks more often than the league average.
The Niners ranked second at 64.8% and the Eagles ran for 148 yards against them. The Eagles were particularly effective against San Fran on red-zone runs, rushing for four touchdowns.