The only honest evaluation of the Eagles’ draft is one that isn’t much fun | David Murphy

The only thing better than NFL draft weekend is the week after NFL draft weekend. That’s when all of the people who have suckered us into caring about the draft reveal how full of baloney they were the whole time. I don’t blame them for being full of baloney. I like baloney. There’s a lot of money in it. The problem is that people don’t seem to have a memory.

Remember K’Von Wallace? John Hightower? Mack Hollins? Donnel Pumphrey? How about Shelton Gibson and Wendell Smallwood? Remember how many times you heard someone say, “Man, love the pick!”

“When we look at this draft class,” general manager Howie Roseman said on Saturday. “It’s hard to make judgments tonight.”

If the general manager of the team can’t render definitive judgment, how can anybody else pretend?

The next time somebody tells you they really like what the Eagles did on the last day of the draft, ask them if they can name all of the Day 3 picks who have started at least two seasons’ worth of games for the Birds since Andy Reid’s last season. If they name anybody other than Jalen Mills, then they are wrong. Since 2013, Mills is the only player drafted by the Eagles in the fourth round or later who has started more than 23 games. Avonte Maddox, Nate Gerry, and Halipoulivaati Vaitai are the only others who have started 20-plus. Smallwood is in fifth place.

Some of this is a function of the Eagles being the Eagles. The Packers have drafted seven multiyear starters in the fourth round or later since 2013. The Patriots have five. The Chiefs have four. Then, you have the teams who drafted Stefon Diggs, George Kittle, Dak Prescott, Trent Brown, Grady Jarrett, and Micah Hyde. In the last 15 years, the Eagles have had one Day 3 pick go on to make a Pro Bowl, and none since they stole Jason Kelce in the sixth round in 2011.

At the same time, this isn’t as local a phenomenon as many would have you believe. If Zech McPhearson never becomes a starter, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the Eagles made the wrong pick. There simply aren’t a lot of right picks to be made. The 2019 and 2020 drafts combined to produce five cornerbacks who went on to start at least 10-plus games as rookies after being drafted in the fourth round or later. That’s out of 36 total who were drafted. Of the 10 who were drafted in the fourth round, three started at least eight games. Five started zero.

Some will use this as proof that the Eagles should have drafted a cornerback sooner than the fourth round. But they should look at the track record of third-round corners. The odds would not have been with them. From 2016 to 2020, NFL teams drafted 19 cornerbacks in the third round. Eight of them currently have fewer than 10 career starts. Only seven have more than 12. Of those seven, Raul Douglas ranks fourth.

Rasul Douglas! I know people remember him. He’s one of seven cornerbacks the Eagles drafted between 2015-19. Yet here we were, still pretending that filling out your roster is as simple as picking the right position.

“If we had a grade on a corner that was at the top of the first round and we were picking in the top of the third round, we probably wouldn’t have taken that player, to be honest with you,” Roseman said. “We don’t see many first-round grades on any position in the top of the third round. When we’re picking a guy in the fourth round, we’re not expecting that guy to have a grade of a guy we would look at when we’re picking at 37.”

Best player available. That’s how the Eagles should have done it, and that appears to be how they did. The problem is that, outside of the first 75 or so picks, there aren’t many players who are actually good. That shouldn’t excuse the pitiful job the Eagles have done in cycling talent through this organization, more the fact that they currently have to pencil in Maddox as a starter in the secondary. But it’s just as inexcusable to evaluate the current year’s draft in all but the broadest of terms.

The one thing you can say for sure about this year’s draft is that it wasn’t a loser. The Eagles did not talk themselves into taking a quarterback. They picked up a future first-round pick. They added a receiver who everyone seems to agree was the obvious pick. Beyond that, any evaluation needs time. If Landon Dickerson stays healthy, there’s a very good chance he will be a good pick. If not, it will go down as another indictment of the process.

“We just felt like there was a potential difference-maker on the board as a player and a person,” Roseman said. “And we felt like it was somebody that -- it was a person and player worth gambling on in Landon.”

The draft is great. I eagerly await the day the NFL decides to have two. But context matters. If the Eagles are picking in the top 10 next year, it won’t be due to the fact that they drafted an injury-plagued lineman in the second round and an undersized defensive tackle in the third. Most likely, it will be due to the fact that they took Jalen Reagor at No. 21, and traded up to draft Andre Dillard, and used a second-round pick on a quarterback who couldn’t win them games on his own.

If you’re dissecting fourth- and fifth-round picks based on their ability to fill roster holes, your evaluation is over. The team has already failed.