3 big unknowns that will decide an Eagles-49ers tossup NFC championship game

The matchups are as intriguing as their outcomes are unknowable in Sunday's game.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts runs against the 49ers. Philadelphia Eagles lost 17-11 to the San Francisco 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa. on Sunday, September 19, 2021.Read moreDAVID MAIALETTI / Staff Photographer

Published Jan. 27, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

The best games are often the ones with the widest range of outcomes. For me, at least. Anybody reading this is probably more concerned with the Eagles’ chances week to week than they are with the complexity and drama of the football. The easier the win, the better, for such fans. But as your resident objective journalist, I have no explicit rooting interest. I get my jollies more from how things unfold than I do from how they end up. I am a man without a country, as a friend likes to remind me. It’s a sad life. But it gives people someone to yell at.

I mention all of this because I’m excited about what we are going to see on the field this Sunday. That’s notable because it’s the opposite of how I felt heading into last Saturday. The Eagles’ 38-7 win over the Giants was as obvious an outcome as I can remember in an Eagles playoff game. At times, the run-up to it felt like previewing the strengths and weaknesses of the matador and the bull. Whenever somebody asked me if I thought the Giants could win, I told them that I’d be a lot less surprised if the Eagles won by four touchdowns. I’ll put this as delicately as I can: The Giants stink.

Now? I’m stumped. We’re 48 hours away from a day that could end with the Eagles advancing to their second Super Bowl in five years. When somebody asks me what I think will happen, I simply shrug and show them the balance in my FanDuel account. Even if I had an opinion on the final score, it probably wouldn’t help.

Instead of telling you what I think is going to happen, why don’t I tell you what I think is going to determine what happens? More often than not, games are decided by the things that we do not know. And in the case of the 49ers vs. the Eagles, there is a ton we do not know.

1. I think there is a very good chance that this game comes down to how well the 49ers deal with Jalen Hurts’ scrambling ability.

Here’s an interesting stat: In Hurts’ six highest career rushing games, the Eagles have outscored their opponents by a combined two points. In his six lowest career rushing games, they have outscored their opponents by 105 points. There are plenty of potential reasons for that disparity. The Eagles are better the better Hurts throws the ball, and the better Hurts is as a thrower, the less he ends up running. Or, the better the Eagles are collectively relative to their opponent, the less they need Hurts to run the ball. Or, the sample is too small and variable-dependent to draw any conclusions at all.

There’s probably an element of all of these involved. But the thing that rings the truest to me is that, the tighter the game, the more Hurts finds himself in situations where he needs to make plays. We saw this in the Eagles’ 40-33 win over the Packers, when Hurts rushed for 157 yards on 17 carries. We saw it in their 38-35 win over the Lions, when he rushed for 90 yards on 17 carries. We saw it in their 17-16 win over the Colts, when he rushed for 86 yards on 16 carries, and in their 25-20 win over the Bears, when he rushed for 61 yards on 17 carries.

None of those defenses boasts the speed, physicality and scheme that the 49ers present.

2. I think Jonathan Gannon versus Kyle Shanahan might be the most important matchup of the game.

Hurts may be the ultimate X factor, but I think that the game will be decided by the chess match between play-callers when the 49ers have the ball. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say that we’ll know most of what we need to know within San Francisco’s first few possessions. If the 49ers score a couple of first-quarter touchdowns the way the Bucs did last postseason, it will at least be a game. If the Eagles don’t answer, the game will be over.

That’s a sobering way to look at things when you consider Shanahan’s game-scripting ability and the trio of two-way weapons that the 49ers have in tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, and running back Christian McCaffrey. We’re assuming McCaffrey will be his usual self, of course — he has been sitting out of practice this week with a calf injury but told reporters that in his mind there is zero chance he won’t play.

This is less about the prodigious talent of all three players than it is the way their skill sets enable Shanahan to use them. Specifically, it allows him to use them in a way that plays away from the Eagles’ strengths. While Gannon gets too much criticism for his degree of inventiveness, he also does not apologize for relying on his players to play to their strengths. Thing is, the Eagles’ strength lies in pressuring the passer and shutting down the two outside receivers. In Kittle, Samuel, and McCaffrey, the 49ers have three players who can line up close to the line of scrimmage and excel in both the running and passing game.

I think Avonte Maddox’s health and availability is a big key. I think T.J. Edwards might end up being the most important guy on the field.

3. I do not think Brock Purdy can win this game for the 49ers. I think he can easily lose it.

I think there’s a decent chance that everybody looks back and realizes they overthought this thing. Is the last pick in the most recent draft really going to play a flawless NFC championship game at Lincoln Financial Field? Turnovers are the hardest thing to predict in football, and also the most important factor in the outcome. I think Vegas has this thing right with the Eagles as a slim favorite. Rather than flipping a coin, you are better off betting against Purdy.