Eagles vs. 49ers predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for the NFC championship game

Long story short, I like the Eagles to win. Long story longer, I don’t think it will be easy. It shouldn’t be at this stage of the playoffs, or as easy as it was last week vs. the Giants. The 49ers have the top-ranked defense in the NFL, according to various metrics, the likes of which Nick Sirianni, Jalen Hurts, and the Eagles offense have yet to encounter this season. Conversely, the same can’t be said for defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans’ unit. The 49ers faced the Chiefs in Week 7 and got steamrolled. But that was a long time ago and San Francisco hasn’t lost since. Ryan’s defense has allowed just 14.9 points a game over that 12-0 span.

The 49ers met some balanced offenses during the period, but they never saw one with a quarterback as much of a threat in the running game as Hurts. Depending upon how one views that mystery, it could be either good or bad for the Eagles. The 49ers defense is statistically strong against both the run and pass, but it has allowed explosive plays through the air. The educated guess here is that Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen will go heavy with the pass early in the hopes of baiting safety Talanoa Hufanga in the post or attacking cornerback Deommodore Lenoir on the outside in single coverage. If the Eagles can jump out early, use a raucous Lincoln Financial Field to their advantage, and force the 49ers into playing catch-up, it should be a winning recipe.

Brock Purdy has defied the low expectations from many outsiders when the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo forced the third-string rookie quarterback into the lineup. He’s a confident kid and has avoided bad mistakes in seven starts. But he’s more a product of the system. When the 49ers’ multi-layered run game is humming, as it often is, Purdy has more open first reads when he has to throw. When he’s forced into obvious passing downs or there’s pressure, he can panic. I don’t want to take anything away from what he’s done. And he can create in and out of the pocket when necessary. But the Eagles’ pass rush has been the best in the NFL and has more depth than the Cowboys’, who wore down last week.

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The 49ers have plenty of weapons to keep the Eagles up at night. Christian McCaffrey may be dealing with a calf injury, but he’s still one of the best dual-threat running backs in the NFL. Receiver Deebo Samuel is a handful once he gets the ball in his hands, and the 49ers still like to run him on occasion. Tight end George Kittle is Purdy’s safety valve over the middle. Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s unit will need to be on its P’s and tackling Q’s against the best offense after the catch.

If the 49ers can run the ball at will — and the Eagles have seen lesser offenses like those of the Texans, Commanders, and Saints control the clock on them — then it could be a slog for the home team. In that case, the scales should tip in San Francisco’s favor. Ultimately, I think the Eagles are stronger up front and have matchup advantages in the interior — both their D-line vs. the 49ers’ O-line and vice versa. And that’s where the battle will be won.

Prediction: Eagles 24, 49ers 20

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As good as the other side of the bracket is, there is a strong argument to be made that the NFC championship game features the two most complete rosters in the league.

Between the Eagles and 49ers alone, the players in Sunday’s game are enough to give either of the Pro Bowl teams a run for their money. There are elite-versus-elite matchups all over the field on both sides of the ball, and those matchups will help determine who ends up planning a trip to Arizona next week.

San Francisco’s defense, led by the Eagle-turned-hotshot coordinator Ryans, is one of the best in the league. It has been particularly dominant against the run, ranking No. 2 in efficiency by Football Outsiders. It’s worth noting, though, that the Niners haven’t seen an expansive quarterback run game like the Eagles’ all season. History suggests this matters; the Eagles have been able to run the ball against top-ranked run defenses because of their unique run game centered on Hurts.

Although I think the Eagles can find success on the ground, the passing game is where a bigger advantage lies. As talented as the 49ers defense is, it hasn’t done an excellent job against true No. 1 receivers. Charvarius Ward is rock solid at the outside corner spot, but Lenoir against whoever Ward isn’t covering will be a matchup advantage for the Eagles.

Ryans mixes up the picture on the back end, switching between Cover 3 and quarters looks that will muddy the picture for Hurts. Cover 3 will leave the Niners susceptible to deep shots on the outside, but quarters will require Hurts to attack the seams. All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner will complicate things in the passing game — he is capable of coverage assignments few others can manage at his position. If Hurts can locate Warner and safety Hufanga to diagnose things, he should be able to find A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert for big plays.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defense will have its hands full. The 49ers have one of the best collections of skill players in the NFL, and Kyle Shanahan deploys them as well as any coach in the NFL could. McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell are both banged up, but the Niners’ run game is the potent foundation upon which the passing game is built. If the Eagles can get out to an early lead or stop the run on early downs, they’ll have the chance to let their pass rushers affect Purdy. As good as Purdy has been, he’s thrived by avoiding mistakes and not doing too much.

The result of this one will likely come down to game script. As good as the Niners defense has been this year, I think that the Eagles can put up points and that this will be a high-scoring affair. An early Eagles lead could lead to a decisive win for the home team, but a close game down the wire will come down to which team’s stars can shine brightest. Simply put: The Eagles have answered too many of my questions this season for me to pick against them.

Prediction: Eagles 34, 49ers 28

Fittingly, the 49ers represent the Eagles’ toughest challenge this season. Sirianni and Gannon said it best when they labeled the NFC championship game matchup involving the conference’s top two teams as “good on good” earlier in the week.

There are a handful of intriguing individual matchups, from Nick Bosa vs. Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson to Smith and Brown vs. Ward and Lenoir. The Eagles gashed the Giants at will during the divisional round, but repeating that feat seems unlikely against one of the NFL’s best run defenses.

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Ultimately, Hurts will have another opportunity to prove why he is a finalist for NFL MVP at just 24 years old. His decision-making against a disciplined and aggressive Ryans-led defense will be a key factor. If Hurts doesn’t become fazed by the defense’s pre-snap looks, and he can quickly identify the zone coverages, he should provide the Eagles with an excellent opportunity to clinch their second conference title in five years.

Prediction: Eagles 27, 49ers 24