Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the 49ers game in Week 13
The NFC championship game rematch will feature the Eagles defense trying to stop a healthy Brock Purdy and the 49ers' versatile offense.
The Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Here are the game predictions from the beat writers.
Jeff McLane
The Eagles will be facing arguably the best offense they’ve encountered this season. Their defense fared well two months ago against the Dolphins, who run a similar system, but San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan is the maestro of the scheme. And he has the necessary pieces at all the skill spots to keep opponents on their heels. He didn’t for most of last year’s NFC championship game, when Eagles edge rusher Haason Reddick knocked quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson out of the game.
As important as running back Christian McCaffrey is to the offense — only the Ravens run the ball more — Shanahan needs Purdy to execute his shifting, motion-heavy system. He needs the former seventh-rounder to complete the explosive opportunities set up by his play-actions. Purdy had a three-week lull in which he threw five interceptions and the 49ers lost each game. But he has otherwise been the best statistical quarterback in the NFL, and, when given time, he often makes the correct read. The Eagles, of course, have a strong pass rush and that is where the San Francisco offense is at its weakest — protecting Purdy — especially in the interior. One problem there for the Birds: Fletcher Cox (groin) is trending toward not playing, although Milton Williams (concussion) could be back.
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The Eagles’ biggest problem on defense, though, is at the off-ball linebacker spot. Zach Cunningham (hamstring) is unlikely to play, which will force Christian Elliss into the lineup alongside Nicholas Morrow. The run defense has been, for the most part, excellent this season, but there have been cracks in the armor of late. And Shanahan will likely employ 21 (two backs and one tight end) and 22 (two backs and two tight ends) personnel to exploit the Eagles’ lack of depth at linebacker. The latter package could force rookie Ben VanSumeren onto the field for his first-ever defensive snaps. Tight end George Kittle and McCaffrey will be focal points in the pass offense, but receiver Brandon Aiyuk (19.6 yards per catch) is a home run threat, and receiver Deebo Samuel can still be a handful. All four are dangerous yards-after-catch receivers and Eagles’ tacklers will need to bring their “A” games.
San Francisco’s pass rush, led by edge rusher Nick Bosa and ex-Eagles defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, may be the best in the league. The 49ers have hit quarterbacks at a higher rate than any team. Their run defense, on the other hand, appears to be just as effective on the surface. The 49ers have allowed only 82 rushing yards per game. But the numbers are skewed because they’ve gotten ahead so often, forcing teams to throw in catch-up mode. A better indication of their run unit may be its 20th ranking in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). So does that mean the Eagles should lean run? Not necessarily. Nick Sirianni and Brian Johnson need to avoid getting lured into a ground war. They have slight air advantages on the outside with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir. All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga is out for the season.
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Jalen Hurts had slow starts the last two weeks and some of that had to do with the absence of Dallas Goedert. The tight end will likely be missing for another week and Sirianni and Johnson have struggled to find a replacement. I’d suggest more passes for Smith. D’Andre Swift is another receiving option who, given the space, can be the explosive third piece the offense has been missing in the pass game.
I’ve become increasingly disillusioned with making predictions. I’m a much better reporter than prognosticator. And to maintain my objectivity I’d rather not give readers any reason — however unfounded — to think I have motives. I always root for the best story, and I see this matchup providing some potential must-reads. The Eagles as home underdogs may be questionable, but Vegas isn’t in the gambling business to lose money. They may be wrong about the three points, but my not-exactly-convincing guess is that they’ll end up being proven correct in the favorite.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Eagles 23
If early returns are any indication, the rookie cornerback tandem of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean could be primed to have a big impact on the franchise’s fortunes. What’s clicked for the youngsters, both separately and collectively, that’s allowed them to earn starting roles this early in their careers? How does their relationship contrast on and off the field? The Inquirer's Jeff McLane profiles the Birds’ budding defensive backfield duo — plus, he goes inside the weight room to highlight an area where second-stringer Kenny Gainwell has Saquon Barkley beat. Listen here.
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Olivia Reiner
Thanksgiving may be over, but there’s been plenty to be thankful for regarding matchups on the Eagles schedule over the last few weeks. First, there was the Super Bowl rematch between the Birds and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, and now the NFC championship game rematch against the 8-3 49ers. From a pure football enjoyment standpoint, that’s about as good as it gets.
Eagles fans are undoubtedly looking forward to this one, too, after 49ers players like Samuel spent the offseason talking about how they would’ve won the game had their quarterbacks not suffered injuries. Purdy enters this game with a league-best passer rating (112.3), yards per pass attempt (9.4), and completion (13.4), and completion percentage (70.2%). Most important for the 49ers, he’s healthy.
Sean Desai and the Eagles defense must try to limit the impact of players like the versatile McCaffrey, who leads the league in rushing yards (939) and all-purpose touchdowns (11 rushing, five receiving). Plus, they’ve got to contain Kittle, who racked up 183 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Eagles in 2020. Add in Samuel and Aiyuk, and the 49ers have arguably some of the strongest offensive weapons that the Eagles will face this season.
The Eagles’ lack of depth and talent at linebacker could be a problem when it comes to taking away the middle of the field. The Eagles are expected to be without Cunningham (hamstring), leaving Morrow, Elliss, and VanSumeren as the three healthy inside linebackers. VanSumeren was signed to the active roster Thursday after he was elevated from the practice squad for the last three games.
The Eagles’ midseason gauntlet has gone better than expected so far, as they have gone 3-0. The 49ers pose a unique challenge with their league-best scoring defense (15.5 points allowed per game) and their third-ranked scoring offense (28.2 points per game). But the Eagles have found ways to come out on top in games that they had no business winning, so I’m not ready to pick against them just yet.
Prediction: Eagles 30, 49ers 27
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EJ Smith
After a grueling three-game stretch against elite opponents, the Eagles will now host a talented 49ers team that is both well-rested and well-invested for this matchup.
The stakes are well-established by now. The 49ers have more than just playoff seeding riding on Sunday’s game after a seemingly endless stream of what-ifs and “trash” talk since January’s NFC championship drubbing at the hands of Reddick & Co. There’s pride on the line for San Francisco, at the very least. The Eagles don’t need this game in the same way, but a win would go a long way toward keeping them atop the conference and silencing the chatter coming from the Niners.
» READ MORE: Eagles’ James Bradberry takes the high road after 49ers’ Deebo Samuel doubles down on calling him ‘trash’
On defense, the key for the Eagles will be compensating for their deficiencies at linebacker and continuing to improve at defending the middle of the field. Shanahan is notorious for testing a defense’s discipline with pre-snap motion, play-action, and misdirection that can often catch linebackers and safeties out of position. He will also happily run right at them given the opportunity — McCaffrey leads the league with 939 rushing yards.
The 49ers deploy plenty of their best offensive weapons in the slot, which has been a pain point for the Eagles defense for most of the season. The group made some progress containing Stefon Diggs when he shifted inside last week, but now they’ll prepare for a scheme that will place Samuel, McCaffrey, Kittle, and Aiyuk inside on occasion.
It’s going to require a complex game plan from Desai, especially considering Cunningham’s hamstring injury potentially leaves the team even thinner at the linebacker. He fared well against Dolphins coach and Shanahan disciple Mike McDaniel earlier this season, but figuring things out with Elliss and VanSumeren forced into action is a tall task.
As usual, the Eagles’ defensive success will hinge on whether the pass rush can affect Purdy on a regular basis. That was the case in January, and the numbers suggest there will be opportunity for pressure again this weekend. Purdy has been pressured on 40% of his dropbacks this season, which ranks 31st out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.
This will likely be the difference in the game. Even if the Eagles offense gets out to a sluggish start, the group has proven it’s good enough to put up points against a talented defense like San Francisco’s. The 49ers defense is set up by a dominant pass rush that can ruin games like the Eagles’, but the matchup advantage isn’t as pronounced between San Francisco’s front and the Eagles’ offensive line.
Overall, the 49ers are talented enough to beat anybody. The Eagles have shown they can beat anybody as well, even without playing their best, but beating this 49ers team may require them to inch closer to the level we have yet to see them reach. Whether they reach it is anyone’s guess, but they’ve shown me enough to avoid picking against them in the big games at this point.
Prediction: Eagles 28, 49ers 24
Josh Tolentino
The 49ers might be beneficiaries of extended rest, but they’re still required to travel cross-country for this highly anticipated tilt involving the conference’s top two teams. There’s been plenty of chirping, mostly from San Francisco, since the last time the 49ers and Eagles met in last season’s NFC championship game. Of course, that contest saw Purdy exit early with an elbow injury and his replacement, Johnson, also left the game, resulting in a lopsided victory for the Eagles.
Some personnel have changed on both sides, but there’s still plenty of familiarity. Desai might need to roll out his best game plan as he prepares to head into battle with Morrow, Elliss, and VanSumeren at off-ball linebacker. Purdy has developed his reputation to rapidly release the ball, but perhaps the Eagles’ pass-rush is able to get home again and wreak havoc. The Eagles need to win up front, both from the edges with Reddick and Josh Sweat and also inside led by rookie Jalen Carter. The defense has been mostly stout against the run, but can the unit continue that trend against the league’s leading rusher in McCaffrey?
Through 11 games, the Eagles have proven they can win in different ways, even when they create hurdles for themselves. Ball security will be paramount for Hurts, who already has thrown a career-high 10 interceptions. The 49ers defense is tied for second in takeaways (21) with a league-high 15 interceptions. Goedert appears to be on the mend with his return to practice on Friday, but even if he isn’t ready to go, the Eagles have proven they have enough to get the job done offensively.
This early-December contest will carry plenty of weight when it comes to conference seeding with the winner creating a direct path to the conference’s top spot, which would secure a bye week along with home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Sunday is shaping up to be a heavyweight bout, and while the 49ers surprisingly are small betting favorites, it’s difficult picking against the reigning conference champions, a unit that continues to outperform when counted out and trailing.
Prediction: Eagles 31, 49ers 24
The Eagles will host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.