Thumbs up or down: Eagles writers weigh in on the AJ Dillon signing

I like the low-cost AJ Dillon signing because I don’t see Will Shipley ready to step completely into the backup running back role with Kenneth Gainwell off to the Steelers, but I can’t give the move a full endorsement because Dillon’s health is an unknown. He missed all of last season with the Packers after suffering a second stinger in eight months. Dillon has reportedly been cleared to return to football by neck specialists, but he still has to pass an Eagles physical. Even if he does, there are obvious risks, especially at a position in which contact is the norm.

But the addition of Dillon to the backfield and to help offset some of the expected workload decrease for Saquon Barkley make sense on paper. He may be the one NFL running back with larger quads than Barkley. It would seem Dillon’s size — a listed 6-foot, 247 pounds — makes him an after-contact killer, but his statistics in the three seasons he was used regularly in Green Bay are just OK. He averaged a solid 3.14 yards after contact in 2021, ranking tied for 17th out of 61 qualifying running backs, per Pro Football Focus. But his numbers and ranking decreased in each of the next two seasons: 2.88 yards for 35th out of 62 in 2022 to 2.69 for 42nd out of 59 in 2023.

» READ MORE: Why the Eagles offense could look for Grant Calcaterra and Will Shipley to step forward

Dillon is more than just a runner, though, and that could be why the Eagles saw him as a fit. As a receiver, he caught 86 passes for 763 yards for an average of 8.9 per reception in four seasons. Drops were an issue in 2022, but he’s generally been sure-handed. The Shanahan scheme aids running backs catching balls out of the backfield, but the film backs up Dillon’s production through the air. As a blocker, he was decent in blitz pickup, but not above average. He allowed 13 pressures in 168 pass blocking attempts, per PFF. The Eagles need to trust Dillon in both disciplines if he’s to spell on Barkley on passing downs.

He could allow for more two-back usage, which could cause mismatches vs. certain defensive personnel. But few modern offenses can lean into “21″ personnel. Maybe the Eagles have plans to borrow some of the run designs from the Shanahan system. Packers coach Matt LaFleur said he had plans to utilize Dillon more in that way before the running back was shut down in training camp. Dillon first suffered a stinger late in the 2023 season. Green Bay re-signed him to a one-year deal the following offseason. But he went on season-ending injured reserve in training camp after another stinger and likely had to agree to a contract with few guarantees this offseason as a result.

The returns on the Eagles acquiring free agents coming off serious injuries are mixed. Neck injuries are tricky, especially at running back (see: Jordan Howard from a few years back). I like the Dillon signing more than I did the Rashaad Penny one from two years ago. Penny had more durability issues, although it was performance that kept him on the backburner when he got to Philly. Barkley didn’t miss a snap because of injury last season. The odds suggest that won’t happen again. The Eagles still believe in Shipley, but Dillon isn’t a bad veteran insurance policy.

There’s a world in which Shipley is a solid RB2. But is it worth going into a season with that expectation?

Any injury to Barkley is going to be detrimental to the Eagles. You didn’t need to read that sentence to know that. But the reason to bring in Dillon, or any player like him, is the reason anyone buys insurance. In the hypothetical where Barkley misses time, are the Eagles willing to put Shipley in that spot to hit play? Maybe it wouldn’t be the worst thing, and Shipley flashed here and there. But he’s a small back who got banged up a few times in his limited workload.

With Dillon, the Eagles have an experienced power back who is hungry to get back to playing football after missing last season with an injury.

He has been super productive in a shared backfield before, and while this is certainly not a spot where he’s going to see a huge workload, it’s worth the limited investment to add experience and talent to the room.

Hard to dislike the Eagles taking a shot here.

Rashaad Penny 2.0 or a low-cost, high-reward signing for the Eagles?

Time will tell. We don’t know the exact terms yet of Dillon’s one-year deal, but it’s hard to imagine that there will be much — if any — guaranteed money in his one-year contract, given that he’s coming off of a yearlong break due to a neck injury. Dillon has reportedly been cleared to return to action, which is good news for the Eagles, but it’s only natural to be a bit concerned about his health going forward.

Still, this is a signing that makes sense. Dillon, a 6-foot, 247-pound power back who was the 62nd overall pick by the Green Bay Packers in the 2020 draft out of Boston College, has the potential to spell Barkley in short-yardage situations. He’s also a capable receiver (22 receptions for 223 yards in 2023) and a willing blocker in pass protection, a pair of traits that will provide some extra value to the Eagles offense. Few people can vouch for his strength and athleticism better than Scot Loeffler, the new Eagles quarterbacks coach who served as Dillon’s offensive coordinator at Boston College.

» READ MORE: Eagles hire Bowling Green’s Scot Loeffler as quarterbacks coach

Given the likely low-cost nature of this addition, it’s worth seeing how Dillon looks in camp after a year out of commission and giving him a shot to make the roster as the third-string running back behind Barkley and Shipley. It’s imperative that the Eagles continue to surround Barkley with capable backups to keep some of the mileage off him as he gets older and his lucrative extension kicks in.

Although there’s a fair share of unknown surrounding the Dillon signing, it’s hard to argue against it when considering the range of outcomes.

Dillon missing all of last season with a stinger invites some question as to whether he’ll be the same type of runner we saw early in his career. If he does return without limitation, he should provide the Eagles another battering ram on an offense full of them. He can also help protect the proverbial investment, providing an option to spell Barkley in short-yardage situations without giving would-be tacklers any respite as a punishing downhill runner himself. He’s shown capability catching the ball out of the backfield as well, although it’s more difficult to envision him unseating Barkley in those situations given how good the All-Pro running back was in them last season.

The downside of the move would look something like Penny’s 2023 season with the Eagles. And while that comparison might cause some of you to feel overwhelmingly pessimistic, the cost of signing Penny to an affordable one-year deal hardly set the Eagles back and shows the low-risk nature of signing a running back in this category. Remember, the Eagles still had a 1,000-yard rusher in D’Andre Swift that season and, for what it’s worth, Dillon has been far more durable and relatively more productive than Penny was as well.

Overall, taking fliers on backs like Dillon makes plenty of sense. Perhaps the investment the Eagles made in Barkley and the draft capital used on Shipley make a move like this redundant, but Dillon’s physical style fits what the Eagles have built on offense enough to feel good about this addition.