Biggest game of a big-game life: Nobody has more to gain or lose from Eagles-Bucs than Jalen Hurts. | David Murphy

It is bigger than the game against Clemson. It is bigger than either game against Georgia. It is bigger than the Heisman Trophy stage. Jalen Hurts has seen plenty of days that cause sleepless nights. On Sunday, he will awake to the biggest.

I might feel bad about writing such a thing if I thought that Hurts might read it. Winning a playoff game against the most successful quarterback of all time is pressure enough, let alone attempting to do it with the thought that one’s career hangs in the balance. Nobody wants to feel responsible for another man’s existential crisis. Even a member of the media.

But Hurts has never carried himself like a man who reads the morning paper, much less cares what it says. From the moment he stepped onto that field in New Orleans, he has operated like a man who knows something the rest of us don’t. Call it what you will: presence, conviction, gravitas, an indomitable spirit. In his world, there are no doubters. Only the misguided.

“He doesn’t force anything — has that natural leadership,” teammate Miles Sanders said in November of 2020 after Hurts’ debut win over the Saints. “We just follow right behind him.”

That’s a different sort of man from the one who only claims not to pay attention to the noise. Every athlete does that. Often, the ones who claim it loudest are simply desperate to believe it. My experience has taught me that there is a positive correlation between the frequency with which athletes insist that they do not pay attention and the distress that attention causes them. Every mature athlete has an ability to block out potential sources of self-doubt. The most mature ones don’t need to. They have an audience of one.

» READ MORE: Who wins? Our predictions for Eagles-Bucs

And yet . . .

There is a thin line between self-confidence and self-delusion. The NFL is full of quarterbacks who entered the league with an unshakable sense of self but not the skill set to match. They’re called backups, and Hurts need only glance behind him to understand.

Scroll back through the archives a couple of years and you’ll find people saying the same things about Gardner Minshew that they’re saying about Hurts now.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Bucs debate: X factors, and how can the Birds stop Tom Brady?

His teammates: “In my eyes, I do believe Gardner is a superstar,” said Jaguars defensive end Josh Allen.

His opponents: “This guy is a leader,” said Titans coach Mike Vrabel.

His college coach: “The most important things for a quarterback is, you have to be an authentic guy,” said former Washington State coach Mike Leach.

Alas, in the NFL, there are more important things. Successful postseason quarterbacks come in a variety of shapes and sizes. But there are some constants, and very few exceptions. The ability to drop back and feel the pocket while keeping one’s attention focused downfield. The ability to identify the open man even before the snap. The ability to deliver the football on time, on point, and through traffic. History suggests that these are things that a quarterback can’t outrun forever.

Look at Minshew’s numbers through 19 starts. Compare them to Hurts’.

The goal here is not to compare the capabilities of the two quarterbacks, nor suggest that one should supplant the other. The eye test is as important for a quarterback as any of his statistics. Two seasons should have been enough for most evaluators to conclude that Minshew is something less than The Guy. The wisdom of crowds is not infallible, but it’s worth noting that no NFL general manager valued Minshew as worth more than a conditional sixth-round pick this summer.

With Hurts, though, the eye test is a difficult thing to calibrate. Unlike Minshew, and most every other passer, he has an elite skill that can single-handedly win games. But that skill is so elite that we don’t have much of a baseline from which to project it over the long term.

» READ MORE: Lane Johnson’s journey from Kilgore College to the Eagles is ‘a testimony of perseverance’

The modern, pass-dominant NFL has only seen three other players with his skill set. Is Hurts closer to Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick, or Robert Griffin III? Even if we had an answer, we’d then need to debate what those guys are or were. One need only look at Jackson’s regression and injury struggles to understand the conundrum. Or, one can look at the 3-7 record that trio has posted in the playoffs.

Which brings us back to Sunday, and a playoff game against the Bucs that will tell us more about who Hurts is and who he can be than any other game he has played at any other level. That’s not hyperbolic. That’s indisputable. For better or for worse, quarterbacks and coaches are ultimately judged on their performance in big games. Ask Donovan McNabb, Andy Reid, Randall Cunningham, and Carson Wentz.

Win or lose, Hurts’ performance this postseason will have a bigger impact on his future under center than any previous game. It shouldn’t win or lose him the job for next season, but it most definitely will impact his margin for error.

» READ MORE: 22 of the Eagles' best playoff moments

Whether that is fair is beside the point. It’s just the way the world works. Since start No. 1 against the Saints, he is 1-6 against teams that finished the season .500 or better. That one win came against a team quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian.

Regardless of his leadership abilities, or his entertainment value on the field, or how badly people want to believe in him, Hurts needs to show on the field that he can be the quarterback of a team that beats the NFL’s best.

Think back to what Howie Roseman said when he traded up for Wentz. The goal was to find a quarterback who would make the Eagles a perennial top seed. We’ve learned plenty about Hurts this season, much of it to like. But from the longest of views, it will all be a memory after Sunday.