Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles travel to Tampa, Fla., for a prime-time showdown with the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Here are the game predictions from the Eagles beat writers for Week 3.

The Bucs are off to a better-than-anticipated start in the wake of Tom Brady’s retirement. They’re 2-0 with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, handing losses to the 0-2 Minnesota Vikings (whom the Eagles beat last week, 34-28) and the dumpster fire that is the 0-2 Chicago Bears.

Mayfield deserves some credit for their success, too, by defying expectations in a small sample size of games. He has completed 69.1% of his passes and boasts a 104.4 quarterback rating, which ranks sixth in the league. His play on third down is even more impressive, completing 86.96% of his passes and posting a 132.1 passer rating, according to Pro Football Reference.

It helps that he’s throwing to a couple of stellar, albeit aging, receivers. Four-time Pro Bowler Mike Evans, 30, leads the team with 12 receptions for 237 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Pro Bowler and Penn State alumnus Chris Godwin, 27, ranks second with 10 receptions for 109 yards. The Eagles will be tasked with limiting their impact in the passing game, and they should have an easier time doing so if cornerback James Bradberry (concussion) is cleared to play. There’s a chance that Bradberry could be moved to the slot with corner Avonte Maddox (pectoral) on injured reserve, which would mean that he could be lined up against Godwin for at least part of the game. Godwin has taken 45.3% of his passing snaps in the slot this season, according to Pro Football Focus.

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But the difference could be in the trenches this week. Interior defensive linemen Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis have burst on to the scene this season and were PFF’s third- and fourth-ranked players at their position, respectively, going into Week 3. Carter has generated 10 quarterback hurries and a sack, while Davis has one hurry, one hit, and 1½ sacks. The Bucs’ offensive line has allowed only one sack this season, but it have some inexperienced players, including second-year starter Robert Hainsey at center, 2023 second-rounder Cody Mauch at right guard, and guard-turned-right-tackle Luke Goedeke.

While the Eagles defense must take care of their business, the offense must find a way to get the passing game going. The Bucs possess the league’s third-best rushing defense in terms of yards against (108). But in the passing game, they rank 24th in yards (497) and 15th in touchdowns (three). It’s worth noting that the Bucs lacked starting outside cornerback Carlton Davis last week, but he returned to practice on Thursday. Still, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles could have an opportunity to get well through the air after plenty of time to assess their shortcomings in the wake of the Thursday night game.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Buccaneers 23

Do you believe in Mayfield’s first two games with the Bucs? Two wins may be enough to suggest that Brady’s replacement looks like the 2020 version of himself and not the one who had regressed in the two years after for three teams. I’m not convinced. The Vikings and Bears — Tampa Bay’s first two opponents — weren’t exactly tough tests and Mayfield’s high rate of third-down conversions likely isn’t sustainable.

He does have two quality receivers in Evans (outside) and Godwin (inside) with the latter likely to have an advantage over whomever the Eagles choose to replace the injured Maddox in the slot. It seems like moving Bradberry inside could be the choice with Josh Jobe on the outside vs. Mario Goodrich on the inside the better option. But either way, Godwin will be facing someone with little NFL experience at that position.

The Eagles defense, though, has another decided edge in the interior. Hainsey and Mauch could have their hands full vs. Davis, Carter, Fletcher Cox & Co. Tampa is strong on the flanks with tackles Tristan Wirfs and Goedeke. Josh Sweat was nearly unstoppable in Week 2, but Haason Reddick hasn’t done much yet and could be restricted by the injured thumb.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are facing a Todd Bowles-led defense that still has talented personnel. Defensive linemen Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett, linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White, and safety Antoine Winfield are still in the fold and still productive. Bowles, of course, devised the game plan that curtailed Hurts two seasons ago in the playoffs. He did a lot of mush-rush to contain the quarterback and pushed him to his left, where he struggled to throw that season.

But Hurts, despite his early struggles this season, has come a long way since that loss. I think he’ll continue to see exotic pressures and umbrella coverages that could affect his downfield passing. And that alone could be enough to stunt the offense if new coordinator Brian Johnson is unable to adjust. He downshifted into a run-heavy offense against the Vikings and was able to ride D’Andre Swift. But good defenses will eventually be able to catch up to offenses that are titled too heavily in one direction, especially if the quarterback can’t throw at will.

I return to my original premise, however, when deciding an outcome: I just don’t believe enough in Mayfield to bet against the odds.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 23

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Through two victories, Hurts’ completion percentage is up to a career-best 71.5%, but he ranks 21st among NFL quarterbacks in yards per attempt and has just three completions of 20-plus yards.

On multiple instances, Hurts has hammered that “winning looks many different ways.” Considering the team’s utter dominance from a season ago, some fans might’ve expected the Eagles to roll through their opponents again this year. But that simply won’t be the case as opposing defenses adapt to Hurts & Co.

Up next is Bowles, widely regarded as one of the top defensive minds in the game. The Buccaneers enjoy deploying a zone-heavy scheme and Bowles is an expert of creating pressure from different spots across the line of scrimmage. The Eagles counter with one of the league’s best offensive lines; Hurts ranks sixth in average time to throw (2.98 seconds), according to Next Gen Stats. The O-line also is a mauling machine in the run game. Swift, a Philadelphia native, was named NFC offensive player of the week after he rushed for a career-high 175 yards and one touchdown in the home opener. It won’t be easy sledding against a Buccaneers defense that is stout in defending the run.

That’s where Hurts and his timely decision-making come back into play. The 25-year-old quarterback is as self-motivated as they come. But if he needs any extra incentive, just flip on the tape from the 2022 NFC wild-card loss to the Buccaneers. Hurts has come a long way since, going 19-1 over his last 20 regular-season games.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Buccaneers 24

Both teams in this matchup are due for some regression to the mean.

The Eagles, even at 2-0, have underachieved in several areas and the long layoff between their Thursday night game in Week 2 and the Monday night trip to Tampa Bay gave them their first real opportunity to clean things up. The Bucs, led by Mayfield and coming off an 8-9 season, are surprisingly still unscathed through two weeks and figure to slow down offensively at some point.

All this isn’t to say the Eagles will be in for a cakewalk. The Buccaneers defense is equal parts talented and well-coached with Bowles having as good a history of containing Hurts as any defensive coach in the NFL. This version of Hurts is quite different than the one Tampa last faced two years ago, but it’s also important to remember Hurts of late has looked more like the quarterback Bowles thwarted in the 2022 playoffs than the MVP-candidate from last season.

The Bucs have a solid pair of starting cornerbacks in Davis and Jamel Dean, and their linebacking duo of White and David should go a long way toward neutralizing the quarterback run game. Vea will also be a handful for Jason Kelce, who is spotting him at least 50 pounds. The Eagles should be able to generate points, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them have to work for it and go through dry spells.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles match up pretty well in some key areas. Bradberry figures to get some slot duty against Godwin, who has led the team in slot snaps every year since 2019. That leaves Evans for Darius Slay, which might be cause for some concern. Slay has done well against route-running technicians in his career, but more physical wideouts can give him trouble.

Tampa Bay has some unproven entities on the offensive line, so the formula will be the usual for the Eagles: Generate pressure and lean on Slay and Bradberry to hold things together on the back end.

I think both teams leave this game headed in the direction we expected at the start of the season, with the Eagles shedding some of the rust and Mayfield coming back down to earth.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 17

The Eagles visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest story lines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Tampa, Fla.