Eagles vs. Buccaneers predictions: Our writers make their picks for Week 4

The Eagles will visit Tampa Bay for a Sunday afternoon matchup with the Buccaneers in a rematch of their wild-card game last season. Here are our writers’ predictions for Week 4.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Bucs predictions: Experts make their picks for the Week 4 matchup

The Eagles may end up missing key pieces on offense, but the Buccaneers are as banged up as any team. They listed a whopping 16 players on their initial practice report, but it looks like only a handful are in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game. Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles announced on Friday that safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and defensive end Calijah Kancey are out, but he also said that defensive tackle Vita Vea and right tackle Luke Goedeke were questionable. Vea missed last week’s game and the Broncos ran the ball and threw at will in a Bucs home loss. His presence in the middle is vital to Bowles’ defense.

The same could be said for Lane Johnson, who was in concussion protocol as of Friday. The right tackle still has a chance to be cleared by Sunday, but if he can’t go the Eagles’ chances of winning just got that much harder. They’re 91-54-1 when he’s in the lineup, 14-22 when he’s not. That said, Fred Johnson did a solid job jumping in for Johnson last week. Tyler Steen did, as well, when right guard Mekhi Becton left with a hand injury, but Becton is expected back. While the drop-off on the offensive line isn’t vast, the same can’t be said for the receiver position. With DeVonta Smith (concussion, out on Sunday) and A.J. Brown (hamstring) sidelined, the Eagles will be looking to newcomer Jahan Dotson, rookie Johnny Wilson, and practice squad call up Parris Campbell to offset what should be a significant downgrade.

» READ MORE: DeVonta Smith ruled out for Sunday’s game vs. Bucs. Eagles still hopeful on Lane Johnson and A.J. Brown.

The Eagles won in New Orleans without Brown and then Smith after he left early in the fourth quarter. But a full 60 minutes without their top two receivers could be untenable. Riding Saquon Barkley seems all but obvious, especially if Vea is out, but getting Jalen Hurts and the offense into manageable third downs should help them counter Bowles’ blitz packages. The Bucs confounded Hurts in January’s playoff loss with zero and fire zone blitzes. The quarterback has been better against extra rushers this season, and tight end Dallas Goedert is always a reliable outlet, but the Bucs should offer the Eagles’ greatest test against the blitz thus far.

Vic Fangio’s alterations to his scheme and personnel helped make a difference in a dominating defensive performance at the Saints last week. The Bucs don’t rush the ball as well as the Saints, but they have a run scheme similar to that of the Falcons, who gave the Eagles headaches on the ground two weeks ago. Tampa utilizes three-wideout sets more than most teams, which may limit how much Fangio can employ his five-man front. Giving off-ball linebacker Zack Baun the ability to move up to the edge assisted the run defense in New Orleans, but quarterback Baker Mayfield may be savvy enough to check to passes against those looks.

Still, the Eagles should have an advantage up front, particularly in the middle with defensive tackle Jalen Carter. If he plays like he did a week ago, Mayfield could be under a lot of duress. He’s already faced more pressures than most quarterbacks. Bucs left guard Ben Bredeson has been the most shaky up front for Tampa. Mayfield has gotten better vs. pressure, and he still has two plus receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But the Bucs haven’t been as explosive through the air as they were a year ago — at least not yet. Evans is still capable of winning in the air and in the end zone. And Godwin will be a tough cover for slot cornerback Avonte Maddox.

The Eagles are still a bit of a mystery. What defense will show up? The one that shutdown the Saints or the one that got steamrolled in the first two weeks? What Hurts will show up? The one that has been careless with the football or the one that has been as accurate as ever and dangerous as a scrambler? Can Nick Sirianni make the analytically correct decision on when to be aggressive on fourth downs and when to not? The uncertainty with injuries adds more intrigue this Sunday. Even without Smith, Brown, and Johnson, I think the Eagles’ strength up front will allow them to avenge the embarrassment in Tampa in January.

Prediction: Eagles 26, Buccaneers 20

» READ MORE: Buccaneers expect an injury-riddled Eagles offense to bring its ‘A game’ in wild-card rematch

The injury news for the Eagles took a (slightly) positive turn Friday, when Johnson returned to the practice field in a limited capacity.

Will Johnson clear the concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s game? Is it worth it, with a bye week on deck? That last question is probably worth exploring, but we’ll leave that analysis out of a game prediction.

What we know is the Eagles will be without Brown and Smith, who again did not practice Friday as he recovers from his concussion.

Hurts is handling the blitz much better this season in Kellen Moore’s offense, but if Lane Johnson can’t go, we’re going to learn a lot more about Fred Johnson’s ability to keep the Eagles afloat — and Hurts on his feet — as the team typically suffers when its All-Pro right tackle misses time.

Brown will be out, and the Eagles will have Dotson, Wilson, and Campbell leading a thinned-out receiving corps. That trio has combined for six catches on the year. Perhaps with more first-team work in practice with Hurts this week, Dotson may finally get into a flow.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defense took a big step forward last week, and Carter should feast on what has been a leaky offensive line for the Bucs so far this season. That pass rush will be critical to keep Tampa’s talented receivers from breaking free in coverage.

There are a lot of unknowns as the Eagles head south. The Bucs have plenty of injuries themselves. Which team prevails? I’ll take the one with Barkley running the ball and the one with Carter causing havoc on the defensive line. It might be another ugly affair like last week in New Orleans. More chaos? How ‘bout a Scorigami?

Prediction: Eagles 25, Buccaneers 18

» READ MORE: Eagles locker room: Sydney Brown nearing return; Tampa homecomings for Isaiah Rodgers, Devin White

This isn’t the wild-card rematch that the Eagles would have envisioned when they first saw this game on the schedule. The team will suit up in Tampa without Brown (hamstring), Smith (concussion), and possibly Lane Johnson (concussion; questionable), three of their most important players on offense. They’re only four weeks into the season and suddenly, the Week 5 bye couldn’t come soon enough.

But the Bucs and their starters are banged up, too. Defensive end Kancey (calf) and All-Pro safety Winfield (foot) have been ruled out. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vea (knee) and right tackle Goedeke (concussion) are questionable.

Even at full strength, this Buccaneers defense hasn’t been as strong as it was last season. They’re allowing zero expected points added per play (expected points gained or lost by a team after each play), which is a .08 increase over last year’s average per Next Gen Stats. They have one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing +0.15 EPA per rushing play (second most) despite deploying stacked boxes at the second-highest rate in the league (34.1%). They’ll likely look to continue that trend against Barkley, the league’s leading rusher, and even so, they’ll be in for a challenge against him and the Eagles offensive line.

One of the biggest storylines to come out of the Eagles’ wild-card matchup against the Bucs was how the offense struggled against the Bowles-led blitz. Hurts was blitzed on 69.2% of his dropbacks and completed 68% of those passes, according to Pro Football Focus. Hurts has shown improvement this year — he has been blitzed on 31.9% of his dropbacks and has completed 72.7% of his passes. While the Buccaneers have blitzed at a relatively high rate this season (32.1%, No. 5 in the NFL), their pressure rate is middling (30.5%, No. 20) and they’ve only recorded two sacks (1.5% sack rate, last in the league).

The Bucs’ offense is similarly just OK. Mayfield has good numbers through three games (74.4% completion, six passing touchdowns) but he’s getting sacked left and right (13 times, tied for No. 3 in the league). The Eagles need a big day from Carter and the rest of their defensive line just like they had last week in sacking the quarterback and stopping the run. Even without Brown and Smith and with Johnson being listed as questionable, the Eagles still have a legitimate chance to win this game.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 24

» READ MORE: Jalen Carter is his own critic, but the Eagles defense’s turnaround was because he was anything but ‘trash’

Even setting aside the uncertainty around two of their most important offensive contributors going into the weekend, this is a difficult game to pin down.

The talent advantage I often cite when predicting Eagles games is shakier than usual ahead of their matchup with the Bucs because of Lane Johnson’s questionable status. With Brown joining Smith on the inactive list, the easy answers in the passing game for Hurts are significantly lessened from what they normally are at an inopportune time. The quarterback’s struggles against Bowles’ defensive system and the exotic blitz packages he often employs are well-documented at this point. Even though Hurts has shown encouraging signs of progress against blitzes big and small so far this season, the real test will be against Bowles this Sunday.

The mesh plays they leaned on against the Saints will likely have been a focal point for Bowles all week, so it will be imperative for offensive coordinator Moore to have found a change-up with the receiving corps headed by Dotson and Campbell rather than Brown and Smith.

Regardless of who plays, this feels like a Barkley game. The Eagles will need to keep the Bucs honest by taking the occasional shot play downfield, but Barkley’s current form and the potential absences of key players should lead to an offense centered around the running back and a reasonable excuse to employ heavy personnel packages with extra blocking prowess for him. Bucs nose tackle Vea will be a handful for the interior line, but the Eagles still have an advantage to rely upon up front against the Tampa Bay defensive line as a whole. The Bucs rank 28th in yards allowed per attempt so far this season, so the opportunities should be there for the Eagles.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles will need to prove they can be stingy against the run even out of nickel packages. Fangio would be wise to employ more five-man fronts even when using sub packages against the Bucs, allowing Carter & Co. to play in the alignments they’ve been most effective out of so far this season.

If they can stop the run, the next massive challenge will be accounting for Evans and Godwin. Evans is the type of physical receiver that can sometimes give veteran cornerback Darius Slay issues, but it’s still a matchup the Eagles shouldn’t feel panicked about. With Godwin lining up from the slot nearly 60% of the time this season, it will be interesting to see how the Eagles try to match up. Maddox could draw the tough assignment, or perhaps rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell could follow the former Penn State standout inside.

Despite some low moments in the early weeks, the Eagles have a chance to go into the bye week 3-1. Past hiccups at Raymond James Stadium make this game feel unpredictable, but the Eagles should be able to lean on their offensive and defensive lines to squeak past a banged-up Buccaneers squad.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 21

» READ MORE: ‘A bigger purpose:’ Inside Fred Johnson’s improbable path to becoming a key Eagles’ offensive lineman

The Eagles play in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Raymond James Stadium.