Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the wild-card matchup against the Bucs

Our Eagles beat writers offer their predictions on Monday’s Eagles-Buccaneers wild-card matchup (8 p.m., ESPN, 6ABC).

At least on paper, the Eagles should win this game.

That on-paper advantage, the one the Eagles have brought into each of their last several games to no avail, is harder to point to with this team, though. The Eagles are talented enough to make a postseason run, but their recent play confirms that even a relatively meager Buccaneers team can send the Eagles into an offseason filled with questions and concern.

The defense’s sharp regression under de facto defensive coordinator Matt Patricia makes these teams’ first meeting in Week 3 seem like a distant memory. Patricia has talked about simplifying things to get the group to play faster and avoid getting bogged down with pre-snap communication, something that has hindered the players while learning an altered scheme late in the season.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the pass rush could be the difference for this floundering defense. Jalen Carter was a game-wrecker in the teams’ first meeting, but he and the rest of the team’s top rushers have gone quiet in the final third of the season.

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is now dealing with an ankle injury sustained last week to compound the rib injury he took into Week 18. Testing Mayfield’s mobility and durability could provide a lifeline for the Eagles secondary, which is suddenly thin at safety. Even if Reed Blankenship is able to play through a groin injury after not practicing all week, the struggles that have plagued the secondary are a major concern going into the matchup against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Darius Slay’s return could give Patricia the option to use more man coverage, but doing so would be a tall order across the board.

The Eagles have been one of the worst teams at defending in the red zone, which sets up a bad-on-bad matchup with the Bucs offense, which ranked 30th in red zone conversion rate during the regular season. A few timely red zone stops would go a long way in this game, but I wouldn’t expect a low-scoring affair given the defense’s recent performances.

On the other side of the ball, injuries have clouded the picture considerably for the Eagles offense. A.J. Brown’s absence will change the complexion of the offense and the aftereffects of Jalen Hurts’ dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand cast some doubt that the group would be able to keep pace in a shootout. The Eagles can lean on their offensive line for a productive run game, as they did in the first matchup, and try to play ball control, but Bucs coach Todd Bowles has gotten his front seven back on track since that first meeting.

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To make it past the Bucs, the Eagles will either need to control the game or keep up in a shootout. Their chances at the latter are significantly impacted by injuries and I’m not sure they’re the same team that rushed for 201 yards in the 25-11 Week 3 win.

Perhaps the Eagles can flip the switch, but their results over the last six games make me too wary to count on it.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Eagles 24

With Hurts likely hampered by his finger, Brown out with a knee injury, the Eagles offense’s success on the ground against the Bucs in Week 3, and the unit’s recent struggles against the blitz, it would seem logical for Nick Sirianni and Brian Johnson to emphasize the run game on Monday night. In the first meeting, the Eagles gained 201 rushing yards with running back D’Andre Swift running for 130 yards on just 16 carries. They pounded Tampa Bay in the four-minute drill so much that Bowles basically waved the white flag and let the Eagles run out the clock.

But that was four months ago. Both teams are vastly different. The Bucs have a better run defense than they showed in that game and rank fifth overall in yards allowed per game. Bowles has always made stopping the run a priority and he is likely to devote an extra defender in that cause for all the reasons stated above. If Tampa can limit the Eagles on early downs and get them into third-and-longs, it cuts Johnson’s play sheet in half and gives the Bucs more reason to blitz. In Hurts’ two games against a Bowles defense, he has struggled against extra rushers. He has been blitzed on 53 of 86 drops (61.6%), according to Pro Football Focus, and completed 29 of 49 passes for 346 yards, been sacked twice, and thrown two touchdowns against two interceptions.

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Brown’s early exit in the Eagles’ season finale, coupled with DeVonta Smith’s absence because of an ankle injury, had a lot to do with their struggles against the blitz-happy New York Giants. But Swift didn’t play either because of an illness and that forced Rashaad Penny into the lineup, and he and Kenneth Gainwell didn’t help in protection. Smith and Swift are back, but will that be enough to help an offense that has become increasingly inconsistent? It makes sense to ride behind the offensive line, but style points count when your owner is the pass-happy Jeffrey Lurie, and an argument could be made for throwing to Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, considering the matchup advantages they have vs. the Bucs’ pass defense. But who among the three Brown replacements — Julio Jones, Quez Watkins, and Olamide Zaccheaus — will help offset the loss of one of the best receivers in the NFL?

The Eagles aren’t the only team with an injured quarterback. Mayfield has been limited by ankle and rib injuries the last two weeks and the Bucs offense has been inefficient. Evans and Godwin form as potent a pair as any set of receivers in the NFL. The Eagles, fortunately for them, will be getting top cornerback Slay back after he missed the last four games of the season. He’s the alpha of the defense and could help right things in the secondary since Patricia took over coordinator duties. He may have butted heads with Patricia in Detroit, but he knows his scheme as well as anyone on the Eagles. The changes that have been implemented since Sean Desai was demoted have played a part in the confusion on that side of the ball. But so have all the moving pieces in the secondary. The Eagles are likely to be without two of their top three safeties with Sydney Brown (torn ACL) out and Blankenship (groin) questionable. It sounds as if slot corner Avonte Maddox may have to play some safety, but the rarely used Tristin McCollum may also have to play some snaps alongside Kevin Byard.

Patricia has had trouble making offenses become one-dimensional by stopping the run, but the Bucs’ last-in-the-NFL run game could be just what the doctor ordered for the Eagles’ running-on-fumes front. Running back Rachaad White is Tampa’s workhorse, but he’s more dangerous as a receiver — he has 64 catches for 549 yards — and that could spell trouble for the Eagles’ suspect linebackers. So could tight end Cade Otton, who has the ability to stretch the field. The Birds do have advantages up front, even if the defensive line has performed below its standard for the last month. Their interior linemen have a chance to push the pocket into Mayfield’s mug against a Bucs O-line that is susceptible up the middle. Tampa Bay tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke will be tough assignments for struggling edge rushers Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick, but center Robert Hainsey and guards Cody Mauch and Aaron Stinnie could be red meat for Carter, Fletcher Cox, and the other interior linemen.

The Eagles, overall, have more talent than the Bucs, but the same could be said for their last three opponents and they lost to all three. This has been a team in a tailspin. Can Sirianni’s group just flip the switch now that the postseason is here? Maybe. Stranger things have happened. And winning in Tampa, despite losing there in the first round two years ago, isn’t daunting. If the Eagles had drawn the Los Angeles Rams or Green Bay Packers, the prediction here would probably be the opposite. The forecasted rain could alter game plans, but I think they have enough to eke by the mediocre Bucs. The Eagles survive for the time being, and most likely Sirianni, but if they lose, all bets are off on the coach’s future.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Bucs 23

There are plenty of reasons to not feel optimistic about the Eagles’ shot at a win in their wild-card matchup against the Buccaneers.

First, this Eagles team is banged up. Their top receiver, Brown, has been ruled out after sustaining a knee injury in Week 18 against the Giants. That week, the Eagles offense struggled to get going without their No. 2 receiver in Smith, who is poised to play on Monday night, so it’s difficult to imagine a dynamic passing game without Brown. Throughout the season, it has appeared as if so much of the success of the offense relies on its stars such as Brown making plays. Without him, the Eagles lose a substantial chunk of what made them special at their highest points this season.

Hurts is also nursing an injury to his middle finger on his throwing hand. He admitted earlier this week that continuing to play through his injury as the game wore on last week wasn’t “the best idea.” He was a full participant in practice on Thursday and Friday and is available to play on Monday. Still, we’ll see how much he’s affected by the injury, if at all, when game time rolls around.

Not only are the Eagles banged up on offense, but they’re dealing with a glaring injury on the defensive side of the ball, too. Safety Blankenship (groin) is listed as questionable to play despite not practicing all week long. Sirianni said that Blankenship has a “chance” to play, but he’ll likely be more of a “game-time decision.” Meanwhile, starting outside cornerback Slay is set to return to action after recovering from knee surgery, but he hasn’t played a snap in over a month. He’s going to be thrown right into the action as part of a secondary tasked with trying to limit the impact of star receivers Evans and Godwin.

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Couple the Eagles’ injury woes with how they’ve been playing during their recent 1-5 skid and there’s legitimate reason for concern regarding the result. Hurts and the Eagles’ pass protection crumbled in the face of pressure last week against the Giants, who blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL this season (45.4%). Head coach Bowles and the Buccaneers defense blitz at the third-highest clip (40.1%). The Eagles must take strides in all facets of handling the blitz, from identifying it pre-snap to having easy options for Hurts among his receivers.

The Eagles defense hasn’t looked any better under new defensive play-caller Patricia than it did previously with defensive coordinator Desai running the show. In their last three games (against the Giants, the Arizona Cardinals, and the Giants again), the Eagles have conceded an average of 29 points per contest, which ranks fourth-worst in the league.

On paper, the Eagles still have more talent in critical areas like the offensive line, the defensive line, and at quarterback. But lately, the on-paper matchup hasn’t mattered for the Eagles. They got blown out by the Cardinals. They fell behind to the Giants in the first half of the season finale with something to play for still on the line. I’ve followed the “better-on-paper” logic for so many of these predictions during the losing streak, but the Eagles have repeatedly shown that it doesn’t matter.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Eagles 20

The Eagles will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round of the playoffs on Monday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Raymond James Stadium.