Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the Chiefs game in Week 11
Jalen Hurts is going up against Patrick Mahomes again. If the Eagles are going to come out on top this time on the road, their defense will have to step forward.
The Eagles visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday. Here are the game predictions from the beat writers.
Jeff McLane
The Chiefs offense that was among the most efficient last season and posted 24 second-half points on the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII hasn’t been as dynamic through the first nine games of this season. The Big Three — quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and coach Andy Reid — are still in place, as are several other key figures on that side of the ball. But there have been changes at wide receiver, tackle, and offensive coordinator and gaining yards and scoring points hasn’t come as easy.
The Chiefs have yet to find a legitimate No. 1 receiver to take pressure off Kelce. Rookie Rashee Rice has been solid in the slot and has seen more snaps outside as a result. But it should be a no-brainer for defensive coordinator Sean Desai to double the future Hall of Famer, especially with the Eagles ranking last place in defense-adjusted value over average vs. tight ends. The same could have been said about covering CeeDee Lamb last game, but Desai gave the Cowboys receiver far too many routes vs. single man coverage. I wouldn’t double Kelce on every play as to be too predictable. But he should draw the most attention.
Mahomes is likely to get his no matter what the Eagles do. He’s countered the lack of a playmaker on the outside by spreading the ball around. In the Chiefs’ last game, for instance, he completed passes to nine different receivers with no one having more than three catches. But Desai can’t let Kelce, who often has free rein to alter his routes, beat him. Reid will employ bunch formations and pre-snap motions to get the Eagles’ secondary to reveal its coverages, but I’d stay simple if I were Desai. He could have safety Kevin Byard shadow Kelce. He had relative success against him when he was with the Titans. Communication on the back end will be paramount.
The other primary reason for the Chiefs’ offensive regression has been the lackluster play of their penalty-making tackles, Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith. The Eagles’ pass rush was held sackless in the Super Bowl. Some have blamed the slippery field. I’m more inclined to credit Mahomes and the Kansas City O-line. Nevertheless, edge rushers Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat may have an extra chip on their shoulders heading into the rematch. They should have the advantage vs. their competition.
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Reid could offset the Eagles’ aggressiveness up front with the run game and screens. He essentially won the Super Bowl when he shifted to the ground to counter Jonathan Gannon’s light boxes and some personnel deficiencies. It’s unlikely the historically pass-happy coach challenges Desai’s top-ranked run defense as much. Of course, turning offenses one-sided hasn’t exactly helped the Eagles’ pass defense in recent weeks.
Switching sides, the Chiefs’ defense has markedly improved since the Super Bowl. Asked for the difference, Eagles center Jason Kelce kept going back to Steve Spagnuolo. The longtime defensive coordinator is in his fifth season in Kansas City, but he seems to be pushing all the right buttons with his aggressive scheme. He still loves to blitz like his mentor, Jim Johnson, but the chaos has been measured. He’ll certainly test Jalen Hurts, but he has to be careful. Spags sent extra rushers at the quarterback in the Super Bowl on 18 of 42 drops, and Hurts completed 13 passes for 101 yards without a turnover or sack. Hurts has been just as good this season vs. the blitz.
He won’t have his No. 1 safety valve, though. Tight end Dallas Goedert is out with a fractured forearm. The Eagles offense struggled in their first game without him a year ago — at Indianapolis — by trying to replace him with the other tight ends. Sure, Jack Stoll, Grant Calcaterra, and maybe Albert Okwuegbunam, will play more a year later. But my guess is they’ll handle more of Goedert’s blocking responsibilities, and Nick Sirianni will spread the tight end’s targets around to the wide receivers and the running backs. DeVonta Smith, Julio Jones, and Olamide Zaccheaus have been underused.
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It always makes sense to feed A.J. Brown and Smith on the outside. When the Chiefs go nickel, cornerback Trent McDuffie moves inside and Jaylen Watson comes in and plays outside. He’s been easy pickings this season. The Eagles already play a lot of 11 personnel, but they have plenty of reason to increase that number on Monday night.
The Eagles’ run game hasn’t been explosive as it was earlier in the season. The lack of designed Hurts runs and less variety in the calls has led to some stagnation. It was bound to happen with the Eagles cognizant of protecting their $200 million investment. Hurts’ recent knee injury has also factored into fewer zone read plays. But a little more D’Andre Swift could go a long way in keeping Mahomes off the field.
I wouldn’t slight the passing game, though. Hurts’ arm has been on fire the last month and the edges at receiver emphasize throwing downfield. I see another back-and-forth affair, but with not as much scoring as in the Super Bowl. That could suggest a coin flip, but Mahomes is 44-10 at home and that’s enough reason give the nod to Kansas City.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Eagles 23
If early returns are any indication, the rookie cornerback tandem of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean could be primed to have a big impact on the franchise’s fortunes. What’s clicked for the youngsters, both separately and collectively, that’s allowed them to earn starting roles this early in their careers? How does their relationship contrast on and off the field? The Inquirer's Jeff McLane profiles the Birds’ budding defensive backfield duo — plus, he goes inside the weight room to highlight an area where second-stringer Kenny Gainwell has Saquon Barkley beat. Listen here.
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Olivia Reiner
Finally, one of the most highly anticipated games of the Eagles’ season is right around the corner in their Super Bowl rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s also a rematch against a very familiar face — Reid, who held the same position in Philadelphia from 1999-2012, has never lost a game to the Eagles since his departure (4-0).
For the first time this season, the Eagles are arguably outmatched on paper compared to their opponent, both in terms of personnel and coaching. One of the most glaring matchup advantages that the Chiefs have in their favor is Kelce versus whomever on the back end is going to be tasked with limiting his impact in the passing game on Monday. He’s averaging fewer yards per reception than ever (10.5, his career low if the season ended tomorrow), but he’s still putting up about 74.6 yards per game. Mahomes has been getting the ball in Kelce’s hands even more this season than he did last season, up from 6.5 receptions per game to 7.1.
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Who is going to be responsible for covering Kelce? He lines up everywhere — in the slot (38.1% of snaps, according to PFF), out wide (20.9%), and inline (39.9%). Ultimately, everyone will have some responsibility depending on where he lines up. But the Eagles have been notably susceptible to giving up yards in the middle of the field, most recently in Week 8 against the Washington Commanders, and the Chiefs could find a way to exploit that area. Slot cornerback Bradley Roby’s potential return could provide the secondary a boost in that area if he’s ready to play.
Hurts and the Eagles offense have continued to improve as the season has progressed, especially in the red zone (55.6% efficiency, No. 12 in the league). But the Chiefs defense has taken a step, too, since they last saw the Eagles. They’ve allowed the fewest points of any defense this season (143 total, roughly 17.9 points per game), and opposing offenses are putting up a mere 4.9 net yards per passing attempt (No. 3). They’ve got a talented group of pass rushers, too, who have collected a total of 31 sacks this season (tied for third in the league).
Playing at a raucous Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night against the best team in the AFC, the Eagles could be poised for their second loss of the season.
Prediction: Chiefs 30, Eagles 25
EJ Smith
Just as it was last February, this Monday’s matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs features two MVP-caliber quarterbacks leading the two best teams in the NFL.
Given the blinding star power of Hurts and Mahomes, it’d be easy to focus solely on them when dissecting the matchup, but the deciding factors could easily be everything around them.
Kansas City’s defense is notably better than it was last February, with a talented secondary and a pass rush led by defensive tackle Chris Jones along with a productive edge-rushing duo of George Karlaftis and Mike Danna. The group ranks third in efficiency this season by FTN Fantasy, which measures defense-adjusted value over average, compared to being 14th last year.
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That’s not to say the Eagles won’t be able to score points — the Eagles’ passing attack was plenty effective against the fifth-ranked Cowboys two weeks ago — but keeping pace with Mahomes & Co. is a bigger task. It’s also important to remember the early struggles the Eagles had last season when Goedert went down with an injury. They eventually found their footing, but that initial game without Goedert featured some growing pains that could return this Monday as they embark on another stretch without the star tight end.
The Chiefs offense this season hasn’t quite looked like the group that hung 38 points on the Eagles last February. Kansas City’s lack of receiving production has made Kelce a bigger focal point, although the Eagles have no clear answer on how to deal with the star tight end. Considering how much success teams have had targeting the Eagles slot cornerbacks and middle-field defense, I’d expect Reid to hunt favorable matchups for Kelce. Desai will need a better plan for Kelce than the one he had for Lamb two weeks ago.
It’s also hard to forget the trouble Desai had against Washington offensive coordinator and former Chiefs play-caller Eric Bieniemy twice this season. Reid has certainly seen that tape and will test the Eagles rules against bunch sets and pre-snap motions early and often on Monday night.
The Eagles will have Roby back and had the benefit of time to integrate Byard on the back end with the bye week. Whether it’s Byard, Roby, James Bradberry, Eli Ricks, or Sydney Brown, Desai will need to find an answer for Kelce.
Doing so may be the difference in the game. As vital as the Eagles’ pass rush typically is in games like these, Mahomes is the type of quarterback who can neutralize a rush and punish teams that try to blitz. The Eagles’ best hope is to affect Mahomes with a four-man rush while staying disciplined enough in their rushing lanes to contain him in the pocket. Easier said than done, Mahomes has only been sacked 12 times this season, which is the fewest of any quarterback with at least five starts.
Overall, this feels like a close game that the Eagles are somewhat due to drop, especially against the bye-week aficionado Reid with a home-field advantage. If a well-rested Hurts can play the way he did in February, anything can happen. But just like that evening near Phoenix, that might not be enough against such a talented Chiefs team capable of erasing leads in a hurry.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24
Josh Tolentino
Reid’s ability to maximize the bye week is thoroughly documented. Will Sirianni be able to counter with his own creative script? It helps that Hurts has ditched the soft knee brace he’s sported over the past three games, an encouraging sign in his recovery from right knee soreness. Against one of the league’s top pass defenses, Hurts might need to rely more on his legs to create unscripted, explosive plays. Hurts recorded a game-high three rushing touchdowns in the Super Bowl.
Hurts also will be without Goedert, and the team’s history without its top tight end isn’t exactly promising. As Sirianni said this week, it’s unrealistic for the backup tight ends to match Goedert’s production — which arguably hasn’t matched his true ceiling this season — but the Eagles would welcome any contributions from the group. Perhaps the offense gets back to the run game with starting right guard Cam Jurgens expected to be back in the mix, or they increase the amount of touches for Brown and Smith. The Eagles boast one of the league’s most efficient offenses, especially during clutch situations, but will their star playmakers be able to push them over the top in a hostile environment?
Defensively, the Eagles have proven to be stout against the run. The Chiefs aren’t known for their rush prowess, but they gashed the Eagles on the ground this past February in Glendale, Ariz. If the unit can stay true to its makeup, that could help force the Chiefs into known pass against a defense that is attempting to gain its footing with a mix of new faces across the second and third levels. Will the Byard-Reed Blankenship safety duo come to form? How will linebackers Nicholas Morrow and Zach Cunningham mesh with Nakobe Dean back on IR? There are several lingering questions, but Desai has stepped up for several big games this season. Mahomes will be Desai’s biggest challenge yet. If the Eagles can earn the right to chase Mahomes out of the pocket in critical downs, there could be a pathway to avenge their Super Bowl defeat.
History is with Reid, but Sirianni, technically, owns a clean 3-0 record coming off the bye. Expect his group to be riled up to begin the second half of the season with a statement primetime victory at Arrowhead Stadium.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Chiefs 27
