Three reasons why the Eagles are simply better than the Chiefs, and one reason to wonder

The Eagles are favored over the Chiefs, and they should probably be favored by more. Andy Reid is the one big reason to wonder.

by David Murphy | Columnist

Published Feb. 1, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

Lane Johnson isn’t exactly sure where the infamous dog mask is. No matter, because he’s not going to need it. Five years after the Eagles won a Super Bowl by milking their underdog status for all that it was worth, they will now have to adjust to life as a betting favorite. As of Wednesday evening, the consensus line had the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs in next Sunday’s Super Bowl, with the majority of the public money coming in on the good guys.

“We’ve been favorites for a lot of the time this year, so it’s kind of been the opposite of the ‘17 team,” Johnson said after the Eagles’ 31-7 win over the 49ers in the NFC championship game on Sunday. “Whether you buy into it or not, it doesn’t really help you win the game. What helps you is executing and running good plays.”

They are the better team. There’s no sense in shying away from that fact. Anybody who attempts to argue otherwise is allowing mythology to trump reality. Forget about what Andy Reid has accomplished. Forget about the quarterback that Patrick Mahomes has been. Go back and watch Sunday’s games and look at the teams that the Chiefs and Eagles are now.

There are three big reasons why the Eagles should win this game, and why they should probably be favored by more than they are now.

1. Super Bowls are won in the trenches, and the Eagles are playing better up front than any team in recent memory.

Before the win over the 49ers, you could at least talk yourself into thinking that there was another shoe to drop. But after watching the Eagles dominate the line of scrimmage against one of the few teams that has the ability to dominate it like they do, the only thing you can do is acknowledge just how talented this team is. Miles Sanders wasn’t touched on either of his touchdown runs. Against the best run defense in football, the Eagles ran it 44 times for 148 yards.

It’s hard to outscheme a steamroller. That’s what this Eagles’ offensive line is.

“We’ve got some big guys on the O-line,” Johnson said. “I don’t know if you’ve seen [Jordan] Mailata, but he’s [bleeping] huge … I’m not a small guy myself.”

The biggest matchup of this Super Bowl might be Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones against the interior of the Eagles’ offensive line. Apart from Aaron Donald, Jones might have the strongest case as the best defensive tackle in the league. Eagles fans should be plenty familiar with how much havoc one mismatch can wreak. Whether or not Landon Dickerson ends up playing after suffering a hyperextended elbow in the NFC championship game, Jones is the one guy who could turn this matchup on its head.

2. Jalen Hurts does not need to carry the game on his shoulders.

Here’s a fun fact: The Eagles could become the first Super Bowl champion in history to finish the postseason without committing a turnover.

One of the most jarring plays of the Eagles’ win over the 49ers in the NFC championship game came early in the first quarter when Jalen Hurts tried to get a little too cute. This was second-and-10 from the San Francisco 42-yard-line on the Eagles’ opening drive. At the top of his dropback, Hurts bounced in place for a few seconds while scanning the field, then gave up and scrambled to his right. With the edge walled off in front of him, Hurts’ best option was to throw the ball away and regroup for third down. Instead, he tried to zip a pass to Dallas Goedert on the sideline. It was a throw that had little chance of being completed, doubly so because of the presence of 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga, who was lurking over top of Goedert. Hufanga ended up making a great play on the ball, darting in front of Goedert and picking off the throw just after his momentum carried him out of bounds.

The play was jarring because you haven’t seen many of them this season from the Eagles. Of their 19 turnovers in the regular season, 11 of them came in three games, four of them with Gardner Minshew under center. This postseason, the Eagles have run 139 plays without turning the ball over. That might not sound like a crazy accomplishment, but no team has ever won a Super Bowl without turning the ball over at least once in the playoffs. Win or lose, the Eagles would become just the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to log three playoff games without a turnover in a single postseason. The 2017 Jaguars are the only team to finish a postseason without a turnover (minimum: three games).

Granted, the Eagles have had a two-possession lead on 85 of those 139 offensive plays. That helps. But Hurts is coming off a regular season in which he posted the second-lowest interception percentage in franchise history among quarterbacks with at least 400 pass attempts. Believe it or not, the best was Carson Wentz in 2019 (1.2%).

Outside of Jones, the Eagles should have an overwhelming advantage up front. Out wide, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should both have the advantage. Hurts does not need to be an MVP for the Eagles to win this game. We saw that last week.

3. Haason Reddick’s edge rush and Patrick Mahomes’ ankle.

Reddick has been the MVP of the playoffs thus far. I don’t think there is a close second. Reid is smart enough to figure out a way to compensate for a defender who can’t be blocked, but we’ve also seen Mahomes and his offense struggle against a withering Super Bowl pass rush. Of all the games within the games, this might be the biggest one. If Mahomes can’t move any better than he did against the Bengals in the AFC championship game, this would be another huge Eagles advantage.

Reid is a brilliant coach, an unparalleled play-caller. He is the biggest reason to wonder. The Eagles are going to do what they do, as all favorites should. The only question is whether Big Red can counter.