Eagles-Commanders predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for Week 10

The Eagles will play on Monday night against the Commanders. Here are the game predictions from our Eagles beat writers for Week 10.

Fans won’t have the opportunity to welcome Carson Wentz back to the Linc with the Commanders quarterback still sidelined by a fractured right ring finger. Aside from a likely desire to boo the former Eagle, they probably would have preferred to see him under center considering his struggles in the first meeting between the two teams. His replacement, Taylor Heinicke, hasn’t exactly scorched the gridiron. But Washington won in his first two starts and he has done a better job of getting the ball into the hands of playmaking receivers Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. The sample is small, though, and in his third start Heinicke had difficulty throwing downfield in a 20-17 loss to the Vikings.

Overall, the Commanders have played a higher level of football in the last month, particularly on the defensive side. They’ve been stingy in the red zone over the last four games, with opposing offenses scoring touchdowns on only 4 of 11 possessions inside the 20. Something may have to give with the Eagles the fifth-best at reaching the end zone (70%) in the NFL. Washington’s defense typically goes as its line goes. End Montez Sweat has 38 pressures this season, according to Pro Football Focus, but the Eagles’ blockers, with right tackle Lane Johnson leading the way, shut him out two months ago. Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen is probably a more difficult matchup for the interior O-line. If he and Daron Payne can collapse the pocket on quarterback Jalen Hurts, the Commanders might have a shot.

» READ MORE: Lane Johnson’s mastery on film as analyzed by Eagles O-line coach Jeff Stoutland

But it’s tough to see Hurts and the Eagles offense having to endure a sustained period of failure. They have too many ways and weapons to beat defenses, and have for the most part avoided self-inflicted wounds. Could they come out flat after another extended break? Sure. Could the turnover gods decide this is the week they lose that battle? You bet. And could Washington exploit their few weaknesses? Absolutely. But there still isn’t enough reason to predict an upset, especially in favor of a 10 ½-point road underdog.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 17

Another prime-time game in which the Eagles are double-digit favorites.

This one won’t have the intrigue ESPN was hoping for going into the season thanks to Wentz’s fractured right ring finger, but the change at quarterback still makes things interesting.

The Heinicke-led Commanders are 2-1 in their last three games with a three-point loss to a good Minnesota Vikings team as their lone blemish.

Each of the three games was close and the two wins, against the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts, are somewhat suspect, but it’s enough to suggest the Eagles can’t overlook the Commanders. There’s also the volatility that often comes from second matchups against division opponents.

It’s easy to see this being a game decided by each team’s defensive front. The Commanders are hopeful Chase Young will return to the fold after a lengthy absence with a torn ACL. If Young is in the lineup, even though it would be exactly 365 days since he last saw game action, he figures to present a challenge for Johnson and Jordan Mailata.

» READ MORE: Jordan Mailata talks about Thursday night struggles

Outside of Young, Washington has enough talent on its pass rush to affect Hurts without sending extra rushers. As we saw in the first matchup, the interior of the line featuring Allen and Payne is good enough to contain a run-heavy approach and keep the game from getting out of hand.

The Eagles defense may be facing a new quarterback, but the offensive line is mostly the same. That’s bad news for Heinicke, who watched from the sideline as the Eagles sacked Wentz nine times in Week 3.

Maybe Heinicke will get the ball out faster? It is possible, but it is also worth mentioning his average time to throw is considerably longer than Wentz’s. Heinicke’s 2.96-second time to throw is the fourth-longest average among qualifying quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats.

The Eagles are bound to slip up against a lesser opponent at some point and the rust of an arrhythmic schedule could make this the week. The stakes of a Monday night game and the apparent talent disparity are too much to ignore in this case, though.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Commanders 14

The Eagles are in the middle of a stretch that features four prime-time games over six contests. Hurts has proven he isn’t shying away from the bright lights. In his third season, Hurts has made noticeable strides in the passing game. His efforts are a large reason that the Eagles are still undefeated and also that Hurts has emerged as an MVP candidate.

» READ MORE: NFL MVP odds: Hurts closes gap in battle with Allen, Mahomes

The last time these two teams met earlier in the season, wide receiver DeVonta Smith exploded for a career-high 169 receiving yards. The wideout executed multiple acrobatic, jaw-dropping catches, while the defense combined for nine sacks against Wentz.

It’s a shame Wentz will miss his first game back in Philadelphia with a broken finger. With Wentz on IR, the Commanders have shifted to Heinicke, who threw for 629 passing yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions over three games. Heinicke is a bit wary with the football; he has committed turnovers in all of his games this season. That bodes well for a tenacious Eagles defense that ranks first in the NFL in turnover differential (plus-15) with a league-high 18 takeaways. In his first year playing at safety, C.J. Gardner-Johnson is thriving with a league-best five interceptions. The Eagles would be wise to dial up blitzes and simulated pressures, and force Heinicke into rushed decisions.

There are some concerns in the trenches. Washington boasts a formable front, and it’s on the verge of regaining Young, the 2020 rookie defensive player of the year. Hurts must maintain his focus on ball security in order to give the Eagles an advantage.

Washington is dealing with a multitude of off-field problems, but division contests typically are quirky and more competitive in nature. Moving forward, it’s likely every opponent will give the Eagles their best shot. The Eagles might lose at some point over the next two months, but it’s tough imagining their first defeat occurs at home in a nationally televised setting.

Prediction: Eagles 35, Commanders 17

Inquirer Eagles beat reporters EJ Smith and Josh Tolentino preview the team’s Week 10 game against the Washington Commanders. Watch at Inquirer.com/EaglesGameday