Eagles vs. Commanders predictions: Our writers make their picks for the NFC championship game

The Eagles host the Washington Commanders on Sunday in the NFC championship game. Here are our writers’ predictions.

Jayden Daniels is the Commanders’ X factor. Heck, he might be the most pivotal player on the field in the NFC championship because he alone can offset the Eagles’ overall advantage. The rookie quarterback has been playing at that kind of level during a seven-game winning steak that included two road upsets in the playoffs. Can Daniels do it again in the rubber match against a divisional rival? It’s possible, but the Eagles are likely going to have to make some uncharacteristic mistakes for it to happen.

Daniels and the Commanders have been essentially the only offensive unit to burn Vic Fangio’s defense since the bye, and they did it despite five turnovers. The Eagles’ performance in that game last month needs to be graded on a curve because Jalen Hurts had been knocked out of it with a concussion. But it showed where the defense has deficiencies and why Fangio is unlikely to dial up as many blitzes on Sunday. He normally doesn’t like to send extra rushers and blitzed Daniels only 12.8 percent of the time vs. Washington in November. The quarterback was less than 100 percent after rushing back from a rib injury, but the Eagles held him to his lowest number of combined yards — 191 passing and only 17 rushing — in that victory.

A month later, Fangio blitzed at a rate of 43.5 percent and Daniels burned the Eagles for 178 yards and three touchdowns. He scrambled only once, but his legs are always a weapon. He has an innate sense of when to take off and when to get down. Daniels can be just as dangerous in offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s “gun-run” game which allows for designed quarterback runs. No offense in the NFL is in the shotgun as much as the Commanders, but it doesn’t make them predictable because Kingsbury has so much variance out of those sets.

He also likes to go up-tempo a lot, which could force the Eagles to stay in certain personnel packages that aren’t best suited for run or pass. Washington will want to establish Brian Robinson on the ground. He’s a tough-nosed runner in between the tackles, but the Eagles held him to just 3.3 yards a carry in two games. They have a decided edge up front vs. the Commanders offensive line and with right guard Sam Cosmi (torn ACL) out, defensive tackle Jalen Carter may be unblockable if replacement Trent Scott has him one on one.

Kingsbury’s offense has countered strong pass rushes by getting the ball out of Daniels’ hands quick with a 2.68-second average time to throw. (Hurts is 3.13 by comparison.) Washington will stretch coverages with vertical concepts that often end with throws to Terry McLaurin and the surging Dyami Brown. The Eagles limited McLaurin’s production (six catches for 70 yards) in the two previous meetings, but Daniels has also good hands outlets in tight end Zach Ertz and running back Austin Ekeler underneath. The Commanders have been among the most efficient offenses on third and fourth downs. The Eagles need to win on first and second down.

Hurts could be less mobile after suffering a knee injury last week. He said he anticipates wearing a knee brace. He’s a threat to run just being out there, but if he can’t move effectively, the plus-one quarterback game becomes less of a factor. Saquon Barkley and the Eagles O-line can get it done on the ground without zone read plays, but after Hurts left last month, the sledding got tougher as the game progressed. Dan Quinn’s defense isn’t exactly dynamic up front, but defensive tackle Jonathan Allen seems fully recovered from a pectoral muscle tear. His counterpart in the middle, Daron Payne, is out with knee and thumb injuries.

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Kellen Moore need to be better if the Eagles are to beat the Commanders

The Eagles have been better getting out of the gate, but offensive coordinator Kellen Moore needs to dial up more quick hitters with quick reads for his quarterback. It’s a mystery as to why Hurts doesn’t drop and throw off play action more considering the threat Barkley poses. Quinn employs a pressure defense that wants to generate turnovers. Good news for the Eagles: they don’t turn the ball over much. Hurts and the passing game may be lacking, but he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way much and he needs to stay conservative. There should be opportunities downfield with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but Commanders cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sainristil will pounce on mistakes. Dallas Goedert may be the more obvious option in the middle. He’s playing through an ankle injury, but there could be an opportunity to exploit safety Jeremy Chinn down the seams.

The Eagles shouldn’t stray from the formula that’s got them this far. Run the ball. Get ahead. Don’t turn it over. And run out the clock. But if the defense is to come out slow, or Hurts’ struggles vs. pressure are to remain, Washington has a chance. I see a lot of points. I see Daniels keeping the Commanders within striking distance as the Eagles get ahead early. I see Barkley breaking another long touchdown run off. I see Fangio getting too soft in the fourth quarter. I see Washington climbing back, falling short, and the Eagles ticketed for New Orleans.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Commanders 30

There are enough question marks for the Eagles to make this one a bit difficult to predict.

That Hurts wasn’t limited in practice toward the end of the week, and that he was seen throwing the football during individual drills doesn’t really say anything about how mobile he will be come 3 p.m. Sunday. It’s a big deal. Hurts’ mobility helps the Eagles offense hum, and when he’s not mobile, you get what you get when Kenny Pickett was running the offense in Washington for the majority of Week 16: The Commanders selling out against the run and doing the rare feat of slowing Barkley.

There’s also the added dimensions of Cam Jurgens dealing with a back injury and Goedert having an injured ankle. Jurgens made the Pro Bowl in his first year replacing Jason Kelce, and Barkley wouldn’t have had nearly as good of a season without the “boys up front,” as he likes to call them. We’ll see how Jurgens’ back holds up Sunday.

Goedert, meanwhile, made some big plays in both playoff wins and he’s a better run blocker than his backup, Grant Calcaterra.

Weather won’t be a concern Sunday, so will the Eagles’ passing attack look a little more normal? Hurts’ ability to move around is a big part of that, too, obviously. And the passing attack in general has had an up-and-down season.

This is reading like a big advantage for the Commanders, but that’s not really the case. Even when banged up, the Eagles have many advantages all over the field, at almost every position.

» READ MORE: The Commanders plan to treat Jalen Hurts like a running back — and ‘hit him that way’

None of those advantages will be bigger than Washington’s interior line against Carter. Right guard Cosmi tore his ACL during Washington’s win in Detroit, and his replacement was a veteran backup right tackle, Trent Scott. No matter what the Commanders do to replace Cosmi, none of the options will be a good one in terms of slowing Carter. Expect a lot of double teams to head Carter’s way, which will open holes for Carter’s teammates.

Daniels is the big wild card. The Eagles did a great job against him in the first matchup but let him run free too often in the second game. Without Nakobe Dean, the linebacking play will be critical.

Washington is dangerous. But the Eagles are better. Will sheer talent overcome the question marks that hang over the game for the Eagles? I think so, just slightly.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 24

They meet again. This time, with some new wrinkles.

One of the biggest questions going into Sunday’s game surrounds Hurts’ mobility. The 26-year-old quarterback is playing through a knee injury that he sustained in the divisional round against the Rams. On Friday, Hurts said his injury is “progressing,” but he would “anticipate” wearing a brace on Sunday.

If Hurts isn’t a threat in the quarterback run game, how will that affect the offense? Could the Commanders follow a similar formula to success as they did in their last meeting, selling out to stop Barkley once Hurts exited the game due to a concussion? Or even if Hurts is merely on the field, regardless of how mobile he is, will the Commanders still honor him as a threat on the ground? Still, Hurts’ absence wasn’t the only reason the run game struggled in that Week 16 game — the Eagles’ run blocking must have better execution this time around.

Keeping Hurts clean in the pocket is going to be the key to ensuring his knee injury doesn’t get any worse. Can Jurgens hold up in pass protection if he’s able to play with a back injury? Hurts is fresh off of a game in which he took seven sacks, and the Commanders will look to replicate the Rams’ success at dialing up the pressure.

The Eagles aren’t the only banged-up team going into this contest. The Commanders are down starting right guard Cosmi, leaving some uncertainty surrounding who might start in his place. Scott could step in, or right tackle Andrew Wylie could slide over to right guard and Cornelius Lucas could slot in at right tackle. As always, Carter will be a player to watch given his game-wrecking ability in the trenches. It’s imperative that the defensive front generates pressure on Daniels without blitzing, a formula that was lacking in the Week 16 loss.

I feel good about the Eagles defense’s ability to allow fewer flukey explosive plays against the Commanders compared to their last outing. I’m more uncertain about the offense’s efficiency given the injuries to key players. Still, I think the Eagles have the talent and experience edges while playing at home, which should be enough to punch their ticket to New Orleans.

Prediction: Eagles 26, Commanders 23

Looking over these two rosters, there seem to be a few different ways the Eagles could forge their path to New Orleans, but a glaring, 6-foot-4, 210-pound obstacle looms large.

To say beating Daniels is the only thing in the way of the Eagles securing a second Super Bowl berth in three years would be reductive, but the surging rookie quarterback has shown the rare ability to be the ultimate trump card in this postseason. The Detroit Lions had a similar talent advantage at home against this Commanders team last weekend but faltered all the same because of some untimely turnovers and a Daniels heater.

Needless to say, the Eagles won’t play Daniels and offensive coordinator Kingsbury the same way Detroit did. The Lions used a heavy dose of man coverage and blitzed often. While Eagles defensive coordinator Fangio did send extra rushers on 20 of his 46 dropbacks back in Week 16, he likely learned his lesson with Daniels averaging 9.4 yards per completion on those dropbacks with three touchdowns and one interception. Even if he does decide to dial up some blitzes, the coverage looks will likely feature more zone calls than Detroit utilized.

The Week 16 loss also featured some uncharacteristic play from the Eagles secondary, with both Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell getting beaten over the top for explosive completions. Limiting those big plays could be the key in the game, especially in the early going if the offense takes a few series to decode which runs could hit for big gains against a talented Washington front.

Speaking of Washington’s defensive front, the lack of second-half production from Barkley also looms large in this matchup. If the Commanders sell out to stop the run like they did a month ago, the Eagles will need to take advantage on the perimeter to keep them honest. The health of several key figures, including Hurts and Jurgens will be instructive there.

Jurgens, who is questionable going into the weekend with a back injury, struggled against the Rams and conceded interior pressure a handful of times. Even if he’s able to play, how he fares against Allen could go a long way toward determining how the Eagles offense fares. Whether Hurts is able to keep the ball on zone run plays to occupy the backside defensive end will also be telling in the early going.

Similar to these teams’ last meeting, this game has the makings of an ugly, contentious slugfest between two rivals who both pride themselves on physicality. The Eagles may be heavy favorites — understandably so given how infrequently they’ve beaten themselves the past few months — but I think they’ll need to be at their best in order to squeak out a win.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Commanders 27

The Eagles host to the Washington Commanders on Sunday in the NFC championship game. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.